Scenario fields¶
Generated from chromantis.model.scenario.Scenario (CODES, MEANING) by chromantis.evaluation.report.write_scenario_key, rewritten by every report; do not edit by hand. A scenario string names only the fields that differ from these defaults, as key=value tokens joined by ,; booleans are written 0/1. See the architecture and Workflow.
| Field | Type | Default | Allowed values | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
history_source |
str | 'finalized' |
artificial, finalized, reported |
Choice A1, where the network's training histories come from: final reference histories (finalized), actual archived Wednesday reports (reported), or final histories made preliminary with artificial reporting errors (artificial; choices B and C). Was part of pilot_method. |
history_correction |
bool | 0 |
0, 1 |
Choice A2: correct the artificial training histories with the cross-fitted correction model (choice D) before the network learns from them (was pilot_method=two_stage/corrected). |
reconstruction_labels |
bool | 0 |
0, 1 |
Choice A3: also learn the final values of the last reconstruction_weeks context weeks (was pilot_method=joint). Labels, not inputs. |
error_scope |
str | 'all' |
all, early_actual |
Apply artificial reporting errors in all training seasons, or early two with actual/proxy recent-season reports. |
error_signals |
str | 'admissions' |
admissions, all, targets |
Choice C: admissions perturbs counts only; targets also perturbs ED but keeps covariates unchanged; all perturbs both targets and covariates. |
corrector_examples |
str | 'synthetic' |
real, synthetic, synthetic_then_real |
Choice D, what the correction trees (the nowcaster) learn from: artificial errors paired with final values (synthetic), real archived reports paired with their mature values (real), or synthetic pretraining then real (synthetic_then_real, MLP only). Was pilot_nowcaster. |
corrector_model |
str | 'tree' |
mlp, tree |
Correction model: gradient-boosted trees (tree) or a residual MLP (mlp). Was pilot_nowcaster. |
input_set |
str | 'all' |
named by the dataset specification | Named target-history input set declared by the dataset specification. |
ili_units |
str | 'own' |
flu_scaled, own |
Own-source ILI proportions or auxiliary flu-head pseudo-tasks rescaled by fitting-only modern Q95 / historical ILI Q95. |
ili_steps |
int | 200 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Historical forecasting pretraining updates; each uses 64 auxiliary examples (series models) or batch_size historical panel episodes (flu MLP). |
correction_weeks |
int | 8 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Recent admissions ages corrected by the nowcaster, clipped to lookback. |
correction_ed |
bool | 0 |
0, 1 |
Also fit/apply report-to-mature ED correction on the recent correction_weeks, restricted to allowed input channels; future labels unchanged. |
ili_training |
str | 'none' |
joint, none, pretrain |
No historical transfer, forecasting pretraining, or joint forecasting on the pinned pre-2022 ILI archive. |
ili_path |
str | 'data/processed/historical_ili.npz' |
any str (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Historical ILI auxiliary dataset; its hash is pinned by the experiment manager. |
ili_weight |
float | 0.25 |
any float (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Historical ILI loss weight for joint training after within-history normalization. |
growth_anchor |
bool | 0 |
0, 1 |
Add damped observed two-week transformed growth to the level anchor. |
reporting_probability |
float | 1.0 |
any float (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Probability a training episode receives artificial reporting errors. |
reporting_random_strength |
bool | 0 |
0, 1 |
Scale each drawn error window by a uniform(0, 1) multiplier. |
reporting_recent |
int | 0 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Perturb only this many most recent context weeks; 0 = all. |
joint_weight |
float | 1.0 |
any float (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
joint only: weight of the reconstruction loss relative to the forecast loss. |
correction_penalty |
float | 10.0 |
any float (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Ridge penalty of the correction trees' linear leaves. |
correction_strength |
float | 1.0 |
any float (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Multiplier of the fitted correction, 1 = full. |
reporting_missingness |
bool | 1 |
0, 1 |
Transfer donor reporting masks with the errors; false transports numerical errors only and retains native input availability. |
reporting_method |
str | 'local_log' |
calendar_log, local_additive, local_log, phase_log, synchronous_log, synchronous_phase_log |
Donor matching of artificial reporting errors; see dataset/reporting_error.py. |
reporting_strength |
float | 1.0 |
any float (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Multiplier of drawn log reporting errors. |
reconstruction_weeks |
int | 2 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
joint only: recent context weeks whose final values are reconstruction labels. |
lookback |
int | 12 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Context weeks per episode (the history the network sees). |
count_transform |
str | 'fourth_root' |
fourth_root, log1p, rate, raw, sqrt |
Admissions in model space: raw counts, rate per 100,000, or its sqrt / fourth root / log1p (model/network.py transform_counts). |
ed_transform |
str | 'linear' |
fourth_root, linear, logit |
ED proportions in model space (model/network.py); scores stay in native units. |
geography |
bool | 1 |
0, 1 |
Adds log population and a native-US flag per location as features. |
coordinates |
bool | 0 |
0, 1 |
Census state internal-point latitude/longitude and non-US indicator. |
dynamics |
bool | 1 |
0, 1 |
Recent-dynamics feature block (30 slope/acceleration/age/validity features); see architecture.md. |
loss_weights |
str | 'objective' |
admissions_only, ed_only, objective |
Training target weights: the problem objective, count targets only, or proportion targets only. |
encoder |
str | 'mlp' |
conv, mlp, multiscale_conv, series_mixer, series_mlp |
Temporal context encoder; see architecture.md. |
spatial |
str | 'none' |
attention, distance, gated_pool, gravity, joint_location_target, national_broadcast, neighbors, none, pathogen_spatial, pooled, target_spatial |
Cross-location information exchange (none, shared attention, pathogen/target/joint scopes); see architecture.md. |
heads |
str | 'shared' |
shared, state_us |
State and US output heads shared or separate (state_us). |
decoder |
str | 'legacy' |
legacy, quantile, quantile_small, residual2 |
Horizon decoder: existing modulated residual (legacy), residual2, or direct ordered quantiles; see architecture.md. |
decoder_blocks |
int | 0 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Residual decoder depth (0 = original head). |
sum_wis_weight |
float | 0.0 |
any float (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Auxiliary four-week flu admission sum WIS weight; sampled heads only; normalized by four times training-only admission Q95. |
noise |
str | 'global' |
global, local |
Global latent noise, or global plus a per-location latent (local). |
us_error |
str | 'none' |
none, shared_factor |
Extra common noise factor (shared_factor); see architecture.md. |
latent |
int | 16 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Global latent (noise) dimension. |
width |
int | 64 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Hidden width of the network. |
epochs |
int | 50 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Epoch cap (the fixed number of epochs when patience = 0). |
patience |
int | 0 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Early-stopping patience in epochs; 0 = fixed epochs, no validation weeks; > 0 selects the epoch on the validation weeks, then refits on the full training seasons (design §4). |
batch_size |
int | 8 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Episodes per optimizer step. |
members |
int | 128 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Sampled members per training episode (fair CRPS loss). |
lr |
float | 0.001 |
any float (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Adam learning rate. |
head_sharing |
str | 'shared' |
pathogen, shared, target |
Output sharing: shared, three pathogen heads, or six target heads; see architecture.md. |
annual_calendar |
bool | 1 |
0, 1 |
Annual sine/cosine and Christmas-timing features. |
location_embedding |
int | 0 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Dimension of a learned location-ID embedding (0 = none). |
fit_partition |
str | 'all' |
all, pathogen, target |
One model for all targets, or separately fitted models per problem group / target; see architecture.md. |
validation_members |
int | 256 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Members drawn for the early-stopping validation loss. |
weight_decay |
float | 0.0 |
any float (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Adam weight decay. |
covariate_encoder |
str | 'raw' |
growth, raw, shared, smooth, summary |
Raw standardized history, signed-log trailing-three-week smoothing, six summaries, a shared 4-dimensional encoder, or recent growth (level, 1/2-week log growth, acceleration) plus coverage/age. |
signal_features |
str | 'none' |
multiscale, none, smooth_multiscale |
Optional causal 3/6/12-week level, slope and curvature features for targets and covariates, with optional three-week smoothing. |
covariate_set |
str | 'none' |
named by the dataset specification | +-joined named covariate sets declared by the dataset; none = none; see workflow.md and experiments/b-2-t0/index.md#protocol. |
input_normalization |
str | 'none' |
b0, none |
none, or B0 per-location transformed target scales fitted on training contexts only. |
validation_calendar |
str | 'season' |
b0, season |
season-relative blocks, or B0 blocks counted from the first stored week of each season. |
validation_weeks |
int | 3 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
patience > 0 only: consecutive early-stopping weeks hidden per block (design §4). |
validation_spacing |
int | 16 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
patience > 0 only: one validation block every this many weeks of a training season. |
validation_offset |
int | 4 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
patience > 0 only: week of each training season where the first block starts (0-based, counted from the season's first epiweek, CDC week 31). |
error_seasons |
str | 'latest' |
all, latest |
Choice B: archived seasons supplying artificial reporting errors and real correction pairs: latest permitted training season, or every archived training season with recency weights 1, 1/2, 1/4. |
actual_share |
float | 0.0 |
any float (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Probability a training episode uses the actual archived report (finalized fill where none) instead of an artificial-error draw. |
correction_realizations |
int | 1 |
any int (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Independent artificial-report-then-correction realizations per training episode; one is drawn per minibatch. |
uncorrected_share |
float | 0.0 |
any float (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Probability a corrected-history training episode is shown uncorrected instead (robustness to correction failure). |
correction_noise |
float | 0.0 |
any float (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Scale of sampled out-of-fold correction residuals added to corrected admissions; 0 = point correction. Evaluation uses 16 sampled histories per issuance. |
correction_noise_train |
bool | 0 |
0, 1 |
Also add sampled correction residuals to corrected training histories each minibatch. |
log_loss_weight |
float | 0.0 |
any float (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Weight of an extra weekly admission loss (the trained admission targets) on the log(1 + count) scale, added to the native-scale loss. |
covariate_dropout |
float | 0.0 |
any float (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Probability a training episode has all covariates (e.g. Kinsa) hidden. |
training_window |
str | 'all' |
all, last2, recent2 |
all = every non-held-out season; recent2 = two preceding seasons; last2 = latest two permitted non-held-out seasons (nested removal of oldest training season). |
stress_views |
bool | 0 |
0, 1 |
Also evaluate delayed-admission and covariate-missing input views of the same fitted model. |
error_reference |
str | '' |
any str (checked in Scenario.__post_init__) |
Choice B: prescribed reporting-error season for training errors and prescribed evaluation inputs, independent of the held-out epidemic season; empty = the fold's own seasons. |
forecast_view |
str | 'corrected' |
corrected, half, raw |
Choice F, how the fitted pair is used at forecast time, part of the recipe: inputs as given (raw), newest weeks corrected by the fold's correction model (corrected), or the 50/50 mixture of those two forecast distributions (half). Ranking and production use this view; the others are diagnostics. |