B7 three-recipe compared with Submitted (System2, 8 recipes)¶
Ratios are new divided by submitted. Medians and 95% interval widths per location and horizon.
Flu admissions¶
| Horizon | Week ending | Submitted (System2, 8 recipes) median (95%) | B7 three-recipe median (95%) | Median ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2026-10-10 | 4,325 (2,362–9,376) | 4,133 (3,041–7,267) | 0.956 |
| 1 | 2026-10-17 | 5,158 (2,667–12,442) | 4,698 (3,356–8,743) | 0.911 |
| 2 | 2026-10-24 | 6,453 (2,734–17,224) | 5,631 (3,678–11,279) | 0.873 |
| 3 | 2026-10-31 | 8,259 (2,648–24,056) | 7,063 (3,912–15,672) | 0.855 |
States/DC/PR, median ratio new/submitted by horizon (10th, 50th, 90th percentile across locations); 95% width ratio median:
- horizon 0: 0.824, 0.957, 1.000; width 1.060
- horizon 1: 0.800, 0.929, 1.000; width 1.015
- horizon 2: 0.803, 0.905, 1.000; width 0.974
- horizon 3: 0.797, 0.939, 1.111; width 0.965
Largest horizon-3 differences: Nebraska 0.66, Delaware 0.67, Maine 0.72, District of Columbia 1.20, Vermont 1.50, Iowa 1.72
Flu ED share (%)¶
| Horizon | Week ending | Submitted (System2, 8 recipes) median (95%) | B7 three-recipe median (95%) | Median ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2026-10-10 | 0.69 (0.41–1.50) | 0.71 (0.46–1.35) | 1.031 |
| 1 | 2026-10-17 | 0.85 (0.49–2.05) | 0.86 (0.56–1.86) | 1.012 |
| 2 | 2026-10-24 | 1.13 (0.54–2.94) | 1.09 (0.61–2.64) | 0.968 |
| 3 | 2026-10-31 | 1.49 (0.58–4.14) | 1.38 (0.66–3.61) | 0.922 |
States/DC/PR, median ratio new/submitted by horizon (10th, 50th, 90th percentile across locations); 95% width ratio median:
- horizon 0: 0.914, 0.981, 1.028; width 1.128
- horizon 1: 0.874, 0.946, 1.006; width 1.073
- horizon 2: 0.850, 0.915, 0.996; width 1.007
- horizon 3: 0.840, 0.904, 0.978; width 0.983
Largest horizon-3 differences: Nebraska 0.73, New Hampshire 0.77, Delaware 0.77, Vermont 1.06, District of Columbia 1.15, Iowa 1.24