2026-09-22 · Adding national Kinsa to finalized target histories¶
Best models by season¶
Top three configurations by the reported combined score (all configurations if fewer than three). Season columns are seed means. Lower is better; 1 is the matched Hub ensemble.
| Model | 2023-2024 | 2024-2025 | 2025-2026 | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1 · target history only | No known result | No known result | No known result | 1.0430 |
| C2 · Kinsa | No known result | No known result | No known result | 1.0440 |
| Hub ensemble | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 |
| B0 reference | No known result | No known result | No known result | No known result |
Only rounded combined scores are recorded in this report. No known saved per-season scores or matched B0 comparison; these are not reconstructed from plot pixels.
Protocol¶
Two configurations: default target histories, with or without national Kinsa; five seeds (42–46). Finalized inputs. Scores use US weight 0.2, admissions 1 and ED 0.5.
Season splits¶
Findings¶
No known result or figure.
Forecast fans¶
Score diagnostics¶
Matched comparisons¶
No known result or figure.
Full ranking¶
Ranking¶
| Configuration | Seeds | Combined | States/DC | US | wk inc flu hosp | wk inc covid hosp | wk inc rsv hosp | wk inc flu prop ed visits | wk inc covid prop ed visits | wk inc rsv prop ed visits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
default |
5 | 1.043 ± 0.076 | 1.033 | 1.083 | 1.028 | 1.018 | 1.018 | 1.085 | 1.034 | 1.187 |
covariate_set=kinsa |
5 | 1.044 ± 0.030 | 1.044 | 1.043 | 1.026 | 0.971 | 1.049 | 1.026 | 0.980 | 1.252 |
Appendix¶
No known result or figure.