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Dataset panel: unpublished cells, revisions, covariates

Generated by python -m tapestry.dataset.analyze_dataset --dataset data/processed/panel.npz (rerun after every panel rebuild). All numbers and figures are computed from the panel; definitions are in the module docstring and below. Design: data contract.

Panel

  • file: data/processed/panel.npz, sha256 54d0e3306a76ded067c6d1b65493d50b1c19bde2e66ab80a438674ec37e6c80f, 19.3 MB
  • build: version 4, truth day 2026-09-22, calendar 2022-05-14 to 2026-09-19
  • dimensions: 228 Saturdays x 52 locations x 6 targets; 13 state covariates, 1 national covariate(s)
  • issuances: 228 Wednesdays, 2022-05-11 to 2026-09-16; 153 vintaged episodes kept (lookback = asof_weeks = 9)
  • raw snapshots: delphi_claims_inpatient 20260916T142718.964296Z, delphi_claims_outpatient 20260916T142831.880328Z, delphi_flusurv 20260922T204051.916853Z, delphi_fluview_clinical 20260922T204051.880663Z, delphi_fluview_ilinet 20260922T204051.781844Z, delphi_nhsn 20260916T142715.158100Z, delphi_nssp 20260916T142717.398812Z, derived_nwss_state_indices 20260922T170917.373373Z, hub_covid_current 20260917T132454.400755Z, hub_flusight_current 20260917T132413.278230Z, hub_rsv_current 20260917T132503.803731Z, pophive_kinsa_ili 20260921T161214.502587Z, cdc_nhsn_final 20260916T142609.954594Z

1. Unpublished cells in vintaged episodes

In vintaged mode, a target cell in the as-of window with nothing visible at the Wednesday cutoff is unavailable (available=False), not filled with final truth. This section measures how many cells that is. j = weeks before issuance: j = 0 is the context end (Saturday four days before the Wednesday). Share = unpublished cells / cells that exist at all (visible at the cutoff or present in the final truth). A missing archive and a not-yet-reported week both count. The default asof_weeks=2 uses j = 0 and 1 only; larger asof_weeks use more columns.

Headline: all seasons pooled, % unpublished

The last season listed is the one in progress at the truth day (few issuances).

target states+US j=0 states+US j=1 states+US j=2 US j=0 US j=1 US j=2
nhsn_covid_admissions 45.5 42.9 42.2 45.8 43.1 42.5
nhsn_flu_admissions 25.2 20.6 19.2 25.5 20.9 19.6
nhsn_rsv_admissions 37.3 33.8 32.5 45.4 42.4 41.3
nssp_covid_proportion 65.2 33.5 29.2 64.7 31.4 26.8
nssp_flu_proportion 66.0 34.3 29.4 65.4 32.0 26.8
nssp_rsv_proportion 65.2 33.5 29.2 64.7 31.4 26.8

Whole-issuance gaps

Issuances (per target, season of the context end) in which no j <= 1 cell had an as-of value, i.e. the whole default as-of window was unavailable, over all issuances with such a cell.

target season all unpublished issuances
nhsn_covid_admissions 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 44 44
nhsn_covid_admissions 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 16 52
nhsn_covid_admissions 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 6 53
nhsn_covid_admissions 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0 4
nhsn_flu_admissions 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 12 44
nhsn_flu_admissions 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 15 52
nhsn_flu_admissions 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 5 53
nhsn_flu_admissions 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0 4
nhsn_rsv_admissions 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 43 43
nhsn_rsv_admissions 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 16 52
nhsn_rsv_admissions 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 6 53
nhsn_rsv_admissions 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0 4
nssp_covid_proportion 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 33 44
nssp_covid_proportion 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 9 52
nssp_covid_proportion 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 6 53
nssp_covid_proportion 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0 4
nssp_flu_proportion 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 33 44
nssp_flu_proportion 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 9 52
nssp_flu_proportion 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 7 53
nssp_flu_proportion 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0 4
nssp_rsv_proportion 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 33 44
nssp_rsv_proportion 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 9 52
nssp_rsv_proportion 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 6 53
nssp_rsv_proportion 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0 4

Per issuance (states+US, j = 0..3)

Table, states+US, % unpublished by j

target season 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
nhsn_covid_admissions 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
nhsn_covid_admissions 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 36.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3
nhsn_covid_admissions 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 13.2 11.3 9.4 7.5 5.7 3.8 1.9 0.0 0.0
nhsn_covid_admissions 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
nhsn_flu_admissions 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 33.7 26.9 24.6 22.3 20.0 17.8 15.5 13.3 11.1
nhsn_flu_admissions 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 34.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3
nhsn_flu_admissions 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 11.3 9.4 7.5 5.7 3.8 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
nhsn_flu_admissions 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
nhsn_rsv_admissions 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
nhsn_rsv_admissions 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 32.4 25.7 25.2 26.7 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.4
nhsn_rsv_admissions 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 13.2 11.3 9.4 7.5 5.7 3.8 1.9 0.0 0.0
nhsn_rsv_admissions 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
nssp_covid_proportion 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 100.0 76.5 72.2 70.1 67.9 67.9 67.9 67.9 67.9
nssp_covid_proportion 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 86.8 20.9 13.7 8.4 6.6 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7
nssp_covid_proportion 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 20.1 12.7 10.9 9.1 7.3 5.5 3.7 1.9 1.9
nssp_covid_proportion 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
nssp_flu_proportion 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 100.0 76.5 72.2 70.1 67.9 67.9 67.9 67.9 67.9
nssp_flu_proportion 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 87.1 21.1 14.0 8.7 6.9 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0
nssp_flu_proportion 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 22.1 14.8 11.1 9.3 7.5 5.7 3.8 2.0 2.0
nssp_flu_proportion 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
nssp_rsv_proportion 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 100.0 76.6 72.3 70.1 68.0 68.0 67.9 67.9 67.9
nssp_rsv_proportion 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 86.8 20.9 13.7 8.4 6.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
nssp_rsv_proportion 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 20.1 12.7 10.9 9.1 7.3 5.5 3.7 1.9 1.9
nssp_rsv_proportion 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Table, US only, % unpublished by j

target season 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
nhsn_covid_admissions 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
nhsn_covid_admissions 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 36.5 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8
nhsn_covid_admissions 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 13.2 11.3 9.4 7.5 5.7 3.8 1.9 0.0 0.0
nhsn_covid_admissions 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
nhsn_flu_admissions 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 34.1 27.3 25.0 22.7 20.5 18.2 15.9 13.6 11.4
nhsn_flu_admissions 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 34.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8
nhsn_flu_admissions 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 11.3 9.4 7.5 5.7 3.8 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
nhsn_flu_admissions 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
nhsn_rsv_admissions 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
nhsn_rsv_admissions 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 36.5 30.8 30.8 32.7 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.6
nhsn_rsv_admissions 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 13.2 11.3 9.4 7.5 5.7 3.8 1.9 0.0 0.0
nhsn_rsv_admissions 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
nssp_covid_proportion 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 100.0 75.0 70.5 68.2 65.9 65.9 65.9 65.9 65.9
nssp_covid_proportion 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 86.5 17.3 9.6 3.8 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
nssp_covid_proportion 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 18.9 11.3 9.4 7.5 5.7 3.8 1.9 0.0 0.0
nssp_covid_proportion 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
nssp_flu_proportion 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 100.0 75.0 70.5 68.2 65.9 65.9 65.9 65.9 65.9
nssp_flu_proportion 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 86.5 17.3 9.6 3.8 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
nssp_flu_proportion 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 20.8 13.2 9.4 7.5 5.7 3.8 1.9 0.0 0.0
nssp_flu_proportion 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
nssp_rsv_proportion 2023-2024 (44 iss.) 100.0 75.0 70.5 68.2 65.9 65.9 65.9 65.9 65.9
nssp_rsv_proportion 2024-2025 (52 iss.) 86.5 17.3 9.6 3.8 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
nssp_rsv_proportion 2025-2026 (53 iss.) 18.9 11.3 9.4 7.5 5.7 3.8 1.9 0.0 0.0
nssp_rsv_proportion 2026-2027 (4 iss.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2. Revision where an as-of value was visible

(as-of - final) / final in %, on cells with a visible as-of value and final > 0, US and states pooled, all issuances.

target j count p10 median p90
nhsn_covid_admissions 0 4260.0 -33.3 -7.7 0.0
nhsn_covid_admissions 1 4470.0 -13.6 -0.4 0.0
nhsn_covid_admissions 2 4524.0 -9.7 0.0 0.0
nhsn_covid_admissions 3 4576.0 -7.9 0.0 0.0
nhsn_covid_admissions 4 4628.0 -7.1 0.0 0.0
nhsn_covid_admissions 5 4676.0 -6.2 0.0 0.0
nhsn_covid_admissions 6 4730.0 -5.6 0.0 0.0
nhsn_covid_admissions 7 4784.0 -5.2 0.0 0.0
nhsn_covid_admissions 8 4783.0 -4.8 0.0 0.0
nhsn_flu_admissions 0 5714.0 -28.6 -3.4 0.0
nhsn_flu_admissions 1 6064.0 -12.5 0.0 0.0
nhsn_flu_admissions 2 6152.0 -8.5 0.0 0.0
nhsn_flu_admissions 3 6237.0 -6.8 0.0 0.0
nhsn_flu_admissions 4 6323.0 -5.9 0.0 0.0
nhsn_flu_admissions 5 6394.0 -5.3 0.0 0.0
nhsn_flu_admissions 6 6465.0 -4.8 0.0 0.0
nhsn_flu_admissions 7 6500.0 -4.2 0.0 0.0
nhsn_flu_admissions 8 6532.0 -3.8 0.0 0.0
nhsn_rsv_admissions 0 3873.0 -35.7 -4.8 0.0
nhsn_rsv_admissions 1 4092.0 -15.4 0.0 0.0
nhsn_rsv_admissions 2 4140.0 -10.3 0.0 0.0
nhsn_rsv_admissions 3 4141.0 -8.0 0.0 0.0
nhsn_rsv_admissions 4 4151.0 -6.3 0.0 0.0
nhsn_rsv_admissions 5 4193.0 -5.4 0.0 0.0
nhsn_rsv_admissions 6 4235.0 -4.7 0.0 0.0
nhsn_rsv_admissions 7 4257.0 -4.1 0.0 0.0
nhsn_rsv_admissions 8 4229.0 -3.8 0.0 0.0
nssp_covid_proportion 0 2748.0 -14.3 -3.8 0.0
nssp_covid_proportion 1 5272.0 -11.5 -2.3 0.0
nssp_covid_proportion 2 5613.0 -5.6 0.0 0.0
nssp_covid_proportion 3 5856.0 -3.7 0.0 0.0
nssp_covid_proportion 4 6005.0 -2.7 0.0 0.0
nssp_covid_proportion 5 6105.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0
nssp_covid_proportion 6 6158.0 -1.6 0.0 0.0
nssp_covid_proportion 7 6210.0 -1.4 0.0 0.0
nssp_covid_proportion 8 6213.0 -1.1 0.0 0.0
nssp_flu_proportion 0 2678.0 -14.3 -2.0 0.0
nssp_flu_proportion 1 5197.0 -11.1 -0.8 0.0
nssp_flu_proportion 2 5586.0 -5.3 0.0 0.0
nssp_flu_proportion 3 5828.0 -2.7 0.0 0.0
nssp_flu_proportion 4 5977.0 -1.6 0.0 0.0
nssp_flu_proportion 5 6076.0 -0.9 0.0 0.0
nssp_flu_proportion 6 6129.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0
nssp_flu_proportion 7 6180.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0
nssp_flu_proportion 8 6182.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0
nssp_rsv_proportion 0 2500.0 -25.0 -2.3 0.0
nssp_rsv_proportion 1 4903.0 -23.1 0.0 0.0
nssp_rsv_proportion 2 5207.0 -9.1 0.0 0.0
nssp_rsv_proportion 3 5418.0 -4.5 0.0 0.0
nssp_rsv_proportion 4 5561.0 -2.5 0.0 0.0
nssp_rsv_proportion 5 5659.0 -1.5 0.0 0.0
nssp_rsv_proportion 6 5712.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
nssp_rsv_proportion 7 5764.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0
nssp_rsv_proportion 8 5772.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0

3. Covariates: final value present but not visible at the cutoff

Covariate cells not visible at the cutoff are unavailable (as target cells now are). % of cells with a final value, all locations and issuances. Kinsa (US only) has as-of data only from 2026-04-06; its row restricted to issuances from then on is shown separately.

covariate 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
clinical_lab_flu_pct_positive 99.4 14.0 7.3 5.5 4.4 3.6 2.9 2.0 1.6
flusurv_flu_rate 98.5 78.6 77.7 76.7 76.6 76.4 76.2 76.0 75.8
ilinet_ili 99.3 6.5 5.0 4.4 3.7 3.1 2.5 1.6 1.4
inpatient_covid 59.7 58.2 57.1 55.2 53.4 50.0 47.6 45.2 44.1
inpatient_flu 40.2 37.8 37.7 37.0 35.6 33.9 32.5 31.4 30.8
kinsa_ili 88.2 87.6 86.9 86.3 85.6 85.6 85.6 85.6 85.6
kinsa_ili (from 2026-04-06) 18.2 13.6 9.1 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
nwss_covid_pct_rank 94.2 86.7 82.6 82.1 81.9 81.7 81.6 81.5 81.4
nwss_covid_wval_like 94.2 86.7 82.6 82.1 81.9 81.7 81.6 81.5 81.4
nwss_flu_pct_rank 93.8 85.6 82.1 81.6 81.3 81.0 80.9 80.7 80.6
nwss_flu_wval_like 93.8 85.6 82.1 81.6 81.3 81.0 80.9 80.7 80.6
nwss_rsv_pct_rank 91.7 82.5 81.2 80.9 80.7 80.6 80.4 80.3 80.1
nwss_rsv_wval_like 91.7 82.5 81.2 80.9 80.7 80.6 80.4 80.3 80.1
outpatient_covid 74.3 73.9 73.5 73.4 72.8 72.3 71.7 71.2 70.1
outpatient_flu 68.6 69.4 69.2 69.1 68.6 67.9 67.7 67.0 66.3

4. Covariates in US and NC

Final (truth-day) values, each divided by its own maximum at that location over the calendar. Colour = pathogen, line style = source (solid inpatient claims, dashed outpatient claims, dotted NWSS wval_like, dash-dot NWSS pct_rank; Kinsa purple; ILINet ILI brown; long dashes clinical-lab influenza percent positive; dash-dot-dot FluSurv-NET rate). Faint dots: the context-end week of each Wednesday issuance as visible at its cutoff, same scale (the latest as-of value an episode sees). A covariate with no value at a location is listed in the legend as not available.

5. Wastewater indices (NWSS)

The two indices per pathogen, wval_like and pct_rank, from the derived_nwss_state_indices snapshot (rebuilt by python -m tapestry.dataset.build nwss-indices; definitions in wastewater). Lines: final (truth-day) value per week; dots: the context-end week as visible at each Wednesday cutoff (NaN before the first Delphi archive vintage, 2026-02-25). Weeks with any value: 2022-05-14 to 2026-09-19; plotted range restricted to it. States need at least 3 eligible sites.

Coverage

Number of states + DC with a value per week (US excluded): final truth (line) and the context-end week as of each Wednesday (dots). issuances_with_asof = Wednesdays whose context-end week had a value for at least one state.

index pathogen weeks_with_any_state states_median states_max issuances_with_asof
wval_like flu 227 41.0 46 20
wval_like covid 228 46.0 48 19
wval_like rsv 228 38.0 46 28
pct_rank flu 227 41.0 46 20
pct_rank covid 228 46.0 48 19
pct_rank rsv 228 38.0 46 28