EpiEstim model for fable

Estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt) with EpiEstim::estimate_R() and forecast with projections::project().

Usage

EPIESTIM(
  formula,
  mean_si,
  std_si,
  rt_window = 14L,
  n_sim = 100L,
  R_fix_within = TRUE
)

Arguments

formula

Response variable to model, for example observation. External predictors are not supported.

mean_si

Mean serial interval in days.

std_si

Standard deviation of the serial interval in days.

rt_window

Length of the sliding window (in days) used to estimate Rt. Smaller values respond more quickly to recent changes, while larger values provide smoother estimates. Defaults to 14.

n_sim

Number of simulated forecast trajectories. Defaults to 100.

R_fix_within

Logical indicating whether Rt is held constant within each simulated trajectory. Recommended for short forecast horizons.

Value

A fable model specification for use with model.

Author

Cyril Geismar

Examples

if (FALSE) { # \dontrun{
example_data |>
  get_fcast(models = EPIESTIM(
    observation,
    mean_si = 4.7,
    std_si = 2.9,
    rt_window = 7
  ))
} # }