Season Only Vaxflux Model
In [1]:
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from pprint import pprint
import arviz as az
import arviz_plots
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpyro
import pandas as pd
from vaxflux import (
LogisticCurve,
PartiallyPooledGaussianCovariate,
SeasonRange,
VaxfluxModel,
VaxfluxObservations,
daily_date_ranges,
)
from vaxflux.data import sample_dataset
numpyro.set_host_device_count(8)
az.style.use("arviz-docgrid")
from pprint import pprint
import arviz as az
import arviz_plots
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpyro
import pandas as pd
from vaxflux import (
LogisticCurve,
PartiallyPooledGaussianCovariate,
SeasonRange,
VaxfluxModel,
VaxfluxObservations,
daily_date_ranges,
)
from vaxflux.data import sample_dataset
numpyro.set_host_device_count(8)
az.style.use("arviz-docgrid")
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seasons = [
SeasonRange(season="2022/23", start_date="2022-10-03", end_date="2023-02-05"),
SeasonRange(season="2023/24", start_date="2023-10-02", end_date="2024-02-04"),
SeasonRange(season="2024/25", start_date="2024-10-07", end_date="2025-02-02"),
]
dates = daily_date_ranges(seasons, range_days=6)
seasons = [
SeasonRange(season="2022/23", start_date="2022-10-03", end_date="2023-02-05"),
SeasonRange(season="2023/24", start_date="2023-10-02", end_date="2024-02-04"),
SeasonRange(season="2024/25", start_date="2024-10-07", end_date="2025-02-02"),
]
dates = daily_date_ranges(seasons, range_days=6)
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covariates = [
PartiallyPooledGaussianCovariate(
parameter="m",
covariate=None,
mu_mu=0.0,
mu_sigma=0.75,
sigma=0.75,
),
PartiallyPooledGaussianCovariate(
parameter="r",
covariate=None,
mu_mu=-2.5,
mu_sigma=1.5,
sigma=1.5,
),
PartiallyPooledGaussianCovariate(
parameter="s",
covariate=None,
mu_mu=35.0,
mu_sigma=20.0,
sigma=20.0,
),
]
covariates = [
PartiallyPooledGaussianCovariate(
parameter="m",
covariate=None,
mu_mu=0.0,
mu_sigma=0.75,
sigma=0.75,
),
PartiallyPooledGaussianCovariate(
parameter="r",
covariate=None,
mu_mu=-2.5,
mu_sigma=1.5,
sigma=1.5,
),
PartiallyPooledGaussianCovariate(
parameter="s",
covariate=None,
mu_mu=35.0,
mu_sigma=20.0,
sigma=20.0,
),
]
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curve = LogisticCurve()
curve
curve = LogisticCurve()
curve
Out[4]:
<vaxflux._curves.LogisticCurve at 0x141edfd10>
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for title, parameter_set in [
(
"Logistic curve varying $m$",
[
(-1.0, -1.0, 30.0),
(0.0, -1.0, 30.0),
(1.0, -1.0, 30.0),
],
),
(
"Logistic curve varying $r$",
[
(-0.75, -2.5, 40.0),
(-0.75, -1.75, 40.0),
(-0.75, -1.0, 40.0),
],
),
(
"Logistic curve varying $s$",
[
(0.0, -2.0, 20.0),
(0.0, -2.0, 40.0),
(0.0, -2.0, 60.0),
],
),
]:
curve.plot(
[float(day) for day in range(85)],
parameter_sets=[
dict(zip(curve.parameters, values, strict=True)) for values in parameter_set
],
title=title,
)
plt.show()
for title, parameter_set in [
(
"Logistic curve varying $m$",
[
(-1.0, -1.0, 30.0),
(0.0, -1.0, 30.0),
(1.0, -1.0, 30.0),
],
),
(
"Logistic curve varying $r$",
[
(-0.75, -2.5, 40.0),
(-0.75, -1.75, 40.0),
(-0.75, -1.0, 40.0),
],
),
(
"Logistic curve varying $s$",
[
(0.0, -2.0, 20.0),
(0.0, -2.0, 40.0),
(0.0, -2.0, 60.0),
],
),
]:
curve.plot(
[float(day) for day in range(85)],
parameter_sets=[
dict(zip(curve.parameters, values, strict=True)) for values in parameter_set
],
title=title,
)
plt.show()
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params = []
params_grid = {
"2022/23": {
"m": -0.5,
"r": -3.2,
"s": 40.0,
},
"2023/24": {
"m": -0.6,
"r": -3.1,
"s": 42.5,
},
"2024/25": {
"m": -0.4,
"r": -3.3,
"s": 41.0,
},
}
for curve_param in curve.parameters:
for season_range in seasons:
season_params = params_grid[season_range.season]
params.append(
(
curve_param,
season_range.season,
season_params[curve_param],
),
)
pprint(params)
params = []
params_grid = {
"2022/23": {
"m": -0.5,
"r": -3.2,
"s": 40.0,
},
"2023/24": {
"m": -0.6,
"r": -3.1,
"s": 42.5,
},
"2024/25": {
"m": -0.4,
"r": -3.3,
"s": 41.0,
},
}
for curve_param in curve.parameters:
for season_range in seasons:
season_params = params_grid[season_range.season]
params.append(
(
curve_param,
season_range.season,
season_params[curve_param],
),
)
pprint(params)
[('m', '2022/23', -0.5),
('m', '2023/24', -0.6),
('m', '2024/25', -0.4),
('r', '2022/23', -3.2),
('r', '2023/24', -3.1),
('r', '2024/25', -3.3),
('s', '2022/23', 40.0),
('s', '2023/24', 42.5),
('s', '2024/25', 41.0)]
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observations = VaxfluxObservations.from_dataframe(
sample_dataset(
curve,
seasons,
dates,
[],
params,
epsilon=0.001,
noise="normal",
)
)
observations.data.head()
observations = VaxfluxObservations.from_dataframe(
sample_dataset(
curve,
seasons,
dates,
[],
params,
epsilon=0.001,
noise="normal",
)
)
observations.data.head()
Out[7]:
| season | season_start_date | season_end_date | start_date | end_date | report_date | type | value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2022/23 | 2022-10-03 | 2023-02-05 | 2022-10-03 | 2022-10-09 | 2022-10-09 | incidence | 0.017206 |
| 1 | 2022/23 | 2022-10-03 | 2023-02-05 | 2022-10-10 | 2022-10-16 | 2022-10-16 | incidence | 0.020050 |
| 2 | 2022/23 | 2022-10-03 | 2023-02-05 | 2022-10-17 | 2022-10-23 | 2022-10-23 | incidence | 0.020793 |
| 3 | 2022/23 | 2022-10-03 | 2023-02-05 | 2022-10-24 | 2022-10-30 | 2022-10-30 | incidence | 0.021211 |
| 4 | 2022/23 | 2022-10-03 | 2023-02-05 | 2022-10-31 | 2022-11-06 | 2022-11-06 | incidence | 0.029847 |
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plot_data = observations.data.copy()
plot_data["start_date"] = pd.to_datetime(plot_data["start_date"])
plot_data["end_date"] = pd.to_datetime(plot_data["end_date"])
plot_data["mid_date"] = (
plot_data["start_date"] + (plot_data["end_date"] - plot_data["start_date"]) / 2
)
plot_data = plot_data.sort_values("mid_date")
plot_data["prevalence"] = plot_data.groupby(["season"])["value"].cumsum()
fig, (ax_inc, ax_prev) = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(10, 8), sharex=True)
for season, group in plot_data.groupby(["season"]):
label = f"{season}"
ax_inc.plot(group["mid_date"], group["value"], label=label)
ax_prev.plot(group["mid_date"], group["prevalence"], label=label)
ax_inc.set_title("Sample observations by season")
ax_inc.set_ylabel("Incidence")
ax_prev.set_title("Cumulative prevalence by season")
ax_prev.set_ylabel("Prevalence")
ax_prev.set_xlabel("Date")
handles, labels = ax_inc.get_legend_handles_labels()
fig.legend(handles, labels, loc="center left", bbox_to_anchor=(1.0, 0.5))
for label in ax_prev.get_xticklabels():
label.set_rotation(30)
fig.tight_layout(rect=(0, 0, 0.85, 1))
plt.show()
plot_data = observations.data.copy()
plot_data["start_date"] = pd.to_datetime(plot_data["start_date"])
plot_data["end_date"] = pd.to_datetime(plot_data["end_date"])
plot_data["mid_date"] = (
plot_data["start_date"] + (plot_data["end_date"] - plot_data["start_date"]) / 2
)
plot_data = plot_data.sort_values("mid_date")
plot_data["prevalence"] = plot_data.groupby(["season"])["value"].cumsum()
fig, (ax_inc, ax_prev) = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(10, 8), sharex=True)
for season, group in plot_data.groupby(["season"]):
label = f"{season}"
ax_inc.plot(group["mid_date"], group["value"], label=label)
ax_prev.plot(group["mid_date"], group["prevalence"], label=label)
ax_inc.set_title("Sample observations by season")
ax_inc.set_ylabel("Incidence")
ax_prev.set_title("Cumulative prevalence by season")
ax_prev.set_ylabel("Prevalence")
ax_prev.set_xlabel("Date")
handles, labels = ax_inc.get_legend_handles_labels()
fig.legend(handles, labels, loc="center left", bbox_to_anchor=(1.0, 0.5))
for label in ax_prev.get_xticklabels():
label.set_rotation(30)
fig.tight_layout(rect=(0, 0, 0.85, 1))
plt.show()
/var/folders/2z/h3pc0p7s3ng1tvxrgsw5kr680000gp/T/ipykernel_21182/1021347413.py:28: UserWarning: The figure layout has changed to tight fig.tight_layout(rect=(0, 0, 0.85, 1))
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model = (
VaxfluxModel(curve=curve)
.add_seasons(seasons)
.add_dates(dates)
.add_covariates(covariates)
.add_observations(observations)
.add_observation_process(
kind="normal",
noise=0.005,
partially_pool_by_season=False,
prevalence_penalty=10.0,
)
)
model
model = (
VaxfluxModel(curve=curve)
.add_seasons(seasons)
.add_dates(dates)
.add_covariates(covariates)
.add_observations(observations)
.add_observation_process(
kind="normal",
noise=0.005,
partially_pool_by_season=False,
prevalence_penalty=10.0,
)
)
model
Out[9]:
<vaxflux.VaxfluxModel object at 0x1428f7d10>
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model.render_model(render_params=True)
model.render_model(render_params=True)
Out[10]:
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prior_samples = 500
vaxflux_prior_idata = model.sample(samples=None, prior_samples=prior_samples)
vaxflux_prior_idata
prior_samples = 500
vaxflux_prior_idata = model.sample(samples=None, prior_samples=prior_samples)
vaxflux_prior_idata
Out[11]:
arviz.InferenceData
-
- chain: 1
- draw: 500
- season: 3
- date_ranges_2022_23: 18
- incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0: 0
- date_ranges_2023_24: 18
- incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty_dim_0: 0
- date_ranges_2024_25: 17
- incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0: 0
- days_2022_23: 126
- days_2023_24: 126
- days_2024_25: 119
- observation: 53
- chain(chain)int640
array([0])
- draw(draw)int640 1 2 3 4 5 ... 495 496 497 498 499
array([ 0, 1, 2, ..., 497, 498, 499])
- season(season)<U7'2022/23' '2023/24' '2024/25'
array(['2022/23', '2023/24', '2024/25'], dtype='<U7')
- date_ranges_2022_23(date_ranges_2022_23)<U21'2022-11-14_2022-11-20' ... '202...
array(['2022-11-14_2022-11-20', '2022-10-31_2022-11-06', '2022-12-19_2022-12-25', '2023-01-16_2023-01-22', '2023-01-02_2023-01-08', '2022-11-21_2022-11-27', '2022-12-05_2022-12-11', '2022-10-17_2022-10-23', '2022-10-24_2022-10-30', '2022-10-10_2022-10-16', '2023-01-09_2023-01-15', '2022-12-26_2023-01-01', '2023-01-23_2023-01-29', '2022-10-03_2022-10-09', '2023-01-30_2023-02-05', '2022-12-12_2022-12-18', '2022-11-28_2022-12-04', '2022-11-07_2022-11-13'], dtype='<U21') - incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0(incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0)int64
array([], dtype=int64)
- date_ranges_2023_24(date_ranges_2023_24)<U21'2023-12-25_2023-12-31' ... '202...
array(['2023-12-25_2023-12-31', '2023-11-13_2023-11-19', '2023-10-09_2023-10-15', '2023-10-02_2023-10-08', '2023-10-30_2023-11-05', '2024-01-01_2024-01-07', '2023-11-20_2023-11-26', '2023-12-18_2023-12-24', '2024-01-29_2024-02-04', '2023-10-16_2023-10-22', '2024-01-15_2024-01-21', '2023-11-06_2023-11-12', '2023-12-11_2023-12-17', '2023-10-23_2023-10-29', '2023-11-27_2023-12-03', '2023-12-04_2023-12-10', '2024-01-08_2024-01-14', '2024-01-22_2024-01-28'], dtype='<U21') - incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty_dim_0(incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty_dim_0)int64
array([], dtype=int64)
- date_ranges_2024_25(date_ranges_2024_25)<U21'2024-12-30_2025-01-05' ... '202...
array(['2024-12-30_2025-01-05', '2024-10-21_2024-10-27', '2024-11-11_2024-11-17', '2024-12-09_2024-12-15', '2024-11-25_2024-12-01', '2024-12-02_2024-12-08', '2025-01-06_2025-01-12', '2024-10-07_2024-10-13', '2025-01-27_2025-02-02', '2025-01-20_2025-01-26', '2025-01-13_2025-01-19', '2024-11-18_2024-11-24', '2024-12-23_2024-12-29', '2024-11-04_2024-11-10', '2024-12-16_2024-12-22', '2024-10-14_2024-10-20', '2024-10-28_2024-11-03'], dtype='<U21') - incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0(incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0)int64
array([], dtype=int64)
- days_2022_23(days_2022_23)<U10'2022-10-03' ... '2023-02-05'
array(['2022-10-03', '2022-10-04', '2022-10-05', '2022-10-06', '2022-10-07', '2022-10-08', '2022-10-09', '2022-10-10', '2022-10-11', '2022-10-12', '2022-10-13', '2022-10-14', '2022-10-15', '2022-10-16', '2022-10-17', '2022-10-18', '2022-10-19', '2022-10-20', '2022-10-21', '2022-10-22', '2022-10-23', '2022-10-24', '2022-10-25', '2022-10-26', '2022-10-27', '2022-10-28', '2022-10-29', '2022-10-30', '2022-10-31', '2022-11-01', '2022-11-02', '2022-11-03', '2022-11-04', '2022-11-05', '2022-11-06', '2022-11-07', '2022-11-08', '2022-11-09', '2022-11-10', '2022-11-11', '2022-11-12', '2022-11-13', '2022-11-14', '2022-11-15', '2022-11-16', '2022-11-17', '2022-11-18', '2022-11-19', '2022-11-20', '2022-11-21', '2022-11-22', '2022-11-23', '2022-11-24', '2022-11-25', '2022-11-26', '2022-11-27', '2022-11-28', '2022-11-29', '2022-11-30', '2022-12-01', '2022-12-02', '2022-12-03', '2022-12-04', '2022-12-05', '2022-12-06', '2022-12-07', '2022-12-08', '2022-12-09', '2022-12-10', '2022-12-11', '2022-12-12', '2022-12-13', '2022-12-14', '2022-12-15', '2022-12-16', '2022-12-17', '2022-12-18', '2022-12-19', '2022-12-20', '2022-12-21', '2022-12-22', '2022-12-23', '2022-12-24', '2022-12-25', '2022-12-26', '2022-12-27', '2022-12-28', '2022-12-29', '2022-12-30', '2022-12-31', '2023-01-01', '2023-01-02', '2023-01-03', '2023-01-04', '2023-01-05', '2023-01-06', '2023-01-07', '2023-01-08', '2023-01-09', '2023-01-10', '2023-01-11', '2023-01-12', '2023-01-13', '2023-01-14', '2023-01-15', '2023-01-16', '2023-01-17', '2023-01-18', '2023-01-19', '2023-01-20', '2023-01-21', '2023-01-22', '2023-01-23', '2023-01-24', '2023-01-25', '2023-01-26', '2023-01-27', '2023-01-28', '2023-01-29', '2023-01-30', '2023-01-31', '2023-02-01', '2023-02-02', '2023-02-03', '2023-02-04', '2023-02-05'], dtype='<U10') - days_2023_24(days_2023_24)<U10'2023-10-02' ... '2024-02-04'
array(['2023-10-02', '2023-10-03', '2023-10-04', '2023-10-05', '2023-10-06', '2023-10-07', '2023-10-08', '2023-10-09', '2023-10-10', '2023-10-11', '2023-10-12', '2023-10-13', '2023-10-14', '2023-10-15', '2023-10-16', '2023-10-17', '2023-10-18', '2023-10-19', '2023-10-20', '2023-10-21', '2023-10-22', '2023-10-23', '2023-10-24', '2023-10-25', '2023-10-26', '2023-10-27', '2023-10-28', '2023-10-29', '2023-10-30', '2023-10-31', '2023-11-01', '2023-11-02', '2023-11-03', '2023-11-04', '2023-11-05', '2023-11-06', '2023-11-07', '2023-11-08', '2023-11-09', '2023-11-10', '2023-11-11', '2023-11-12', '2023-11-13', '2023-11-14', '2023-11-15', '2023-11-16', '2023-11-17', '2023-11-18', '2023-11-19', '2023-11-20', '2023-11-21', '2023-11-22', '2023-11-23', '2023-11-24', '2023-11-25', '2023-11-26', '2023-11-27', '2023-11-28', '2023-11-29', '2023-11-30', '2023-12-01', '2023-12-02', '2023-12-03', '2023-12-04', '2023-12-05', '2023-12-06', '2023-12-07', '2023-12-08', '2023-12-09', '2023-12-10', '2023-12-11', '2023-12-12', '2023-12-13', '2023-12-14', '2023-12-15', '2023-12-16', '2023-12-17', '2023-12-18', '2023-12-19', '2023-12-20', '2023-12-21', '2023-12-22', '2023-12-23', '2023-12-24', '2023-12-25', '2023-12-26', '2023-12-27', '2023-12-28', '2023-12-29', '2023-12-30', '2023-12-31', '2024-01-01', '2024-01-02', '2024-01-03', '2024-01-04', '2024-01-05', '2024-01-06', '2024-01-07', '2024-01-08', '2024-01-09', '2024-01-10', '2024-01-11', '2024-01-12', '2024-01-13', '2024-01-14', '2024-01-15', '2024-01-16', '2024-01-17', '2024-01-18', '2024-01-19', '2024-01-20', '2024-01-21', '2024-01-22', '2024-01-23', '2024-01-24', '2024-01-25', '2024-01-26', '2024-01-27', '2024-01-28', '2024-01-29', '2024-01-30', '2024-01-31', '2024-02-01', '2024-02-02', '2024-02-03', '2024-02-04'], dtype='<U10') - days_2024_25(days_2024_25)<U10'2024-10-07' ... '2025-02-02'
array(['2024-10-07', '2024-10-08', '2024-10-09', '2024-10-10', '2024-10-11', '2024-10-12', '2024-10-13', '2024-10-14', '2024-10-15', '2024-10-16', '2024-10-17', '2024-10-18', '2024-10-19', '2024-10-20', '2024-10-21', '2024-10-22', '2024-10-23', '2024-10-24', '2024-10-25', '2024-10-26', '2024-10-27', '2024-10-28', '2024-10-29', '2024-10-30', '2024-10-31', '2024-11-01', '2024-11-02', '2024-11-03', '2024-11-04', '2024-11-05', '2024-11-06', '2024-11-07', '2024-11-08', '2024-11-09', '2024-11-10', '2024-11-11', '2024-11-12', '2024-11-13', '2024-11-14', '2024-11-15', '2024-11-16', '2024-11-17', '2024-11-18', '2024-11-19', '2024-11-20', '2024-11-21', '2024-11-22', '2024-11-23', '2024-11-24', '2024-11-25', '2024-11-26', '2024-11-27', '2024-11-28', '2024-11-29', '2024-11-30', '2024-12-01', '2024-12-02', '2024-12-03', '2024-12-04', '2024-12-05', '2024-12-06', '2024-12-07', '2024-12-08', '2024-12-09', '2024-12-10', '2024-12-11', '2024-12-12', '2024-12-13', '2024-12-14', '2024-12-15', '2024-12-16', '2024-12-17', '2024-12-18', '2024-12-19', '2024-12-20', '2024-12-21', '2024-12-22', '2024-12-23', '2024-12-24', '2024-12-25', '2024-12-26', '2024-12-27', '2024-12-28', '2024-12-29', '2024-12-30', '2024-12-31', '2025-01-01', '2025-01-02', '2025-01-03', '2025-01-04', '2025-01-05', '2025-01-06', '2025-01-07', '2025-01-08', '2025-01-09', '2025-01-10', '2025-01-11', '2025-01-12', '2025-01-13', '2025-01-14', '2025-01-15', '2025-01-16', '2025-01-17', '2025-01-18', '2025-01-19', '2025-01-20', '2025-01-21', '2025-01-22', '2025-01-23', '2025-01-24', '2025-01-25', '2025-01-26', '2025-01-27', '2025-01-28', '2025-01-29', '2025-01-30', '2025-01-31', '2025-02-01', '2025-02-02'], dtype='<U10') - observation(observation)<U29'2022/23|2022-10-03|2022-10-09' ...
array(['2022/23|2022-10-03|2022-10-09', '2022/23|2022-10-10|2022-10-16', '2022/23|2022-10-17|2022-10-23', '2022/23|2022-10-24|2022-10-30', '2022/23|2022-10-31|2022-11-06', '2022/23|2022-11-07|2022-11-13', '2022/23|2022-11-14|2022-11-20', '2022/23|2022-11-21|2022-11-27', '2022/23|2022-11-28|2022-12-04', '2022/23|2022-12-05|2022-12-11', '2022/23|2022-12-12|2022-12-18', '2022/23|2022-12-19|2022-12-25', '2022/23|2022-12-26|2023-01-01', '2022/23|2023-01-02|2023-01-08', '2022/23|2023-01-09|2023-01-15', '2022/23|2023-01-16|2023-01-22', '2022/23|2023-01-23|2023-01-29', '2022/23|2023-01-30|2023-02-05', '2023/24|2023-10-02|2023-10-08', '2023/24|2023-10-09|2023-10-15', '2023/24|2023-10-16|2023-10-22', '2023/24|2023-10-23|2023-10-29', '2023/24|2023-10-30|2023-11-05', '2023/24|2023-11-06|2023-11-12', '2023/24|2023-11-13|2023-11-19', '2023/24|2023-11-20|2023-11-26', '2023/24|2023-11-27|2023-12-03', '2023/24|2023-12-04|2023-12-10', '2023/24|2023-12-11|2023-12-17', '2023/24|2023-12-18|2023-12-24', '2023/24|2023-12-25|2023-12-31', '2023/24|2024-01-01|2024-01-07', '2023/24|2024-01-08|2024-01-14', '2023/24|2024-01-15|2024-01-21', '2023/24|2024-01-22|2024-01-28', '2023/24|2024-01-29|2024-02-04', '2024/25|2024-10-07|2024-10-13', '2024/25|2024-10-14|2024-10-20', '2024/25|2024-10-21|2024-10-27', '2024/25|2024-10-28|2024-11-03', '2024/25|2024-11-04|2024-11-10', '2024/25|2024-11-11|2024-11-17', '2024/25|2024-11-18|2024-11-24', '2024/25|2024-11-25|2024-12-01', '2024/25|2024-12-02|2024-12-08', '2024/25|2024-12-09|2024-12-15', '2024/25|2024-12-16|2024-12-22', '2024/25|2024-12-23|2024-12-29', '2024/25|2024-12-30|2025-01-05', '2024/25|2025-01-06|2025-01-12', '2024/25|2025-01-13|2025-01-19', '2024/25|2025-01-20|2025-01-26', '2024/25|2025-01-27|2025-02-02'], dtype='<U29')
- covariate_values_m_season(chain, draw, season)float32-0.7382 0.1388 ... -0.6401 -0.6544
array([[[-0.73822135, 0.13878213, -0.6846991 ], [ 1.0354692 , -0.7839565 , 1.134343 ], [ 0.6699672 , 0.19520204, 0.3223958 ], ..., [ 0.2336146 , 0.36195597, -0.23245636], [-0.18821198, -0.39716476, 1.4835699 ], [-0.4693136 , -0.6400985 , -0.65438485]]], dtype=float32) - covariate_values_r_season(chain, draw, season)float32-3.226 -2.072 ... -3.558 -3.467
array([[[-3.2258692 , -2.0721884 , -3.1752603 ], [-3.675077 , -3.2028935 , 0.00944741], [-2.801423 , -2.971833 , -2.6726527 ], ..., [-0.68867135, -0.920128 , -7.0252733 ], [-2.5418181 , -4.2386036 , -0.9696687 ], [-3.545124 , -3.5578792 , -3.467131 ]]], dtype=float32) - covariate_values_s_season(chain, draw, season)float3260.07 65.8 67.16 ... 22.06 -20.5
array([[[ 60.07309 , 65.80169 , 67.158226 ], [ 41.85238 , 126.863716 , 38.49154 ], [ -1.3848752, 19.864319 , 3.4514854], ..., [ 20.63952 , 12.158056 , 44.6644 ], [ -7.601713 , -8.761094 , -12.390999 ], [ 21.276993 , 22.055552 , -20.501368 ]]], dtype=float32) - incidence_2022_23(chain, draw, date_ranges_2022_23)float320.02056 0.01638 ... 0.01465 0.01833
array([[[2.0555506e-02, 1.6378146e-02, 1.9278817e-02, ..., 2.1033902e-02, 2.2434222e-02, 1.8643880e-02], [3.2662198e-02, 3.2104120e-02, 2.6128452e-02, ..., 2.8110180e-02, 3.1219151e-02, 3.2636393e-02], [1.5046806e-02, 3.0359294e-02, 1.9933686e-03, ..., 3.0259779e-03, 6.8758479e-03, 2.1677673e-02], ..., [1.5104243e-05, 1.6559232e-02, 0.0000000e+00, ..., 0.0000000e+00, 0.0000000e+00, 5.0748029e-04], [3.8917053e-03, 1.0988765e-02, 2.5515800e-04, ..., 4.4205307e-04, 1.3211593e-03, 6.5943850e-03], [1.7315356e-02, 1.9043932e-02, 1.0192588e-02, ..., 1.1649264e-02, 1.4645171e-02, 1.8334270e-02]]], dtype=float32) - incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty(chain, draw, incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0)float32
array([], shape=(1, 500, 0), dtype=float32)
- incidence_2023_24(chain, draw, date_ranges_2023_24)float320.02914 0.03041 ... 0.004253
array([[[2.91385278e-02, 3.04127019e-02, 4.31227469e-04, ..., 1.15952954e-01, 5.63565316e-03, 9.87867941e-04], [1.23047289e-02, 2.99075455e-03, 7.60906842e-04, ..., 6.40458660e-03, 1.71073601e-02, 2.10199524e-02], [5.95717272e-03, 3.33386920e-02, 4.60612252e-02, ..., 1.55134555e-02, 3.00492323e-03, 1.49098365e-03], ..., [0.00000000e+00, 4.59239845e-06, 3.16269994e-01, ..., 0.00000000e+00, 0.00000000e+00, 0.00000000e+00], [6.51418045e-03, 8.76304321e-03, 9.96411964e-03, ..., 7.68772326e-03, 5.73653588e-03, 4.99377772e-03], [8.08495097e-03, 1.54919056e-02, 1.67069156e-02, ..., 1.19053060e-02, 5.94596704e-03, 4.25339676e-03]]], dtype=float32) - incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty(chain, draw, incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty_dim_0)float32
array([], shape=(1, 500, 0), dtype=float32)
- incidence_2024_25(chain, draw, date_ranges_2024_25)float320.02072 0.009575 ... 0.01194
array([[[2.0719118e-02, 9.5747169e-03, 1.7266195e-02, ..., 2.4109304e-02, 7.5639966e-03, 1.1917974e-02], [0.0000000e+00, 9.3850714e-09, 7.1055400e-01, ..., 0.0000000e+00, 8.0079103e-12, 1.0998911e-05], [8.7690720e-04, 5.6622829e-02, 2.1737127e-02, ..., 2.2823908e-03, 6.6358075e-02, 4.3997623e-02], ..., [6.8772107e-04, 6.8786065e-04, 6.8795861e-04, ..., 6.8785553e-04, 6.8780128e-04, 6.8790658e-04], [0.0000000e+00, 4.1046671e-05, 0.0000000e+00, ..., 0.0000000e+00, 5.8270496e-04, 2.9109276e-06], [2.4394712e-03, 1.3499698e-02, 8.9330738e-03, ..., 3.6395139e-03, 1.5006276e-02, 1.1936878e-02]]], dtype=float32) - incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty(chain, draw, incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0)float32
array([], shape=(1, 500, 0), dtype=float32)
- m_2022_23(chain, draw)float32-0.7382 1.035 ... -0.1882 -0.4693
array([[-7.38221347e-01, 1.03546917e+00, 6.69967175e-01, -1.01400226e-01, 8.81939754e-02, -6.38906479e-01, 5.47094464e-01, 2.97395676e-01, -8.70764375e-01, 1.56667978e-01, 1.56095278e+00, 1.40506017e+00, 3.79780233e-01, 7.33284891e-01, -1.03758121e+00, -7.34672785e-01, -3.29430029e-02, 6.88557208e-01, 6.78927228e-02, -8.55956450e-02, 8.32651258e-01, 1.63982880e+00, 7.97555506e-01, -3.52764130e-02, -3.05017292e-01, 2.41207764e-01, 2.92229027e-01, -8.36691618e-01, 1.81573436e-01, 3.55634801e-02, 3.09659988e-01, -1.97218955e+00, -7.57314086e-01, -1.76365602e+00, -1.45444643e+00, -3.95089865e-01, 4.56831336e-01, -2.61197776e-01, -6.52015805e-01, 6.19494617e-01, -5.65979909e-03, 3.94558422e-02, -1.22079901e-01, 1.00760497e-01, -3.45846623e-01, -1.48177966e-01, 8.38915884e-01, -7.20996916e-01, 2.72183251e-02, 5.42784154e-01, -7.04480112e-02, 9.02220488e-01, -1.18295170e-01, 1.39435077e+00, -3.74694983e-03, 1.81737328e+00, -7.99849093e-01, 2.56401539e-01, -2.85171223e+00, 1.48188758e+00, ... -4.12309408e-01, 3.42151880e-01, -4.36959445e-01, -9.15923476e-01, -1.89543474e+00, 2.32713550e-01, 9.64953721e-01, -1.62598693e+00, 8.43192458e-01, 2.68386394e-01, -6.27736330e-01, -5.99541068e-01, -1.13338077e+00, -3.92899811e-01, 1.18564272e+00, 5.13417482e-01, -4.37031597e-01, -6.94600165e-01, 1.90814281e+00, -1.07233930e+00, 1.52061522e+00, 1.01887393e+00, 4.54279482e-01, -5.10194749e-02, -2.28135630e-01, 1.42374516e+00, -8.23793590e-01, 7.55422175e-01, -1.21401477e+00, -8.86015534e-01, 3.30417454e-01, 3.77444416e-01, 4.06835854e-01, 1.02542043e+00, 1.77984583e+00, 4.94723469e-02, 5.39824307e-01, -4.34913754e-01, -1.32790327e+00, 2.24138394e-01, 2.34529495e-01, 7.55834103e-01, 1.61333270e-02, -3.39889973e-01, -1.53773800e-01, -1.89610720e-01, 1.25351238e+00, 4.44210529e-01, 1.86874461e+00, 3.25394541e-01, 1.01765215e+00, 7.59984851e-02, -5.91359735e-01, -2.39686016e-02, 1.33404389e-01, -7.93270618e-02, 2.33614594e-01, -1.88211977e-01, -4.69313592e-01]], dtype=float32) - m_2022_23_daily(chain, draw, days_2022_23)float32-0.7382 -0.7382 ... -0.4693 -0.4693
array([[[-0.73822135, -0.73822135, -0.73822135, ..., -0.73822135, -0.73822135, -0.73822135], [ 1.0354692 , 1.0354692 , 1.0354692 , ..., 1.0354692 , 1.0354692 , 1.0354692 ], [ 0.6699672 , 0.6699672 , 0.6699672 , ..., 0.6699672 , 0.6699672 , 0.6699672 ], ..., [ 0.2336146 , 0.2336146 , 0.2336146 , ..., 0.2336146 , 0.2336146 , 0.2336146 ], [-0.18821198, -0.18821198, -0.18821198, ..., -0.18821198, -0.18821198, -0.18821198], [-0.4693136 , -0.4693136 , -0.4693136 , ..., -0.4693136 , -0.4693136 , -0.4693136 ]]], dtype=float32) - m_2023_24(chain, draw)float320.1388 -0.784 ... -0.3972 -0.6401
array([[ 1.38782129e-01, -7.83956528e-01, 1.95202038e-01, 8.59069377e-02, -1.83374941e-01, -4.34279621e-01, -2.13556409e-01, -7.26205826e-01, -7.16529548e-01, 1.16014048e-01, 1.46698189e+00, 1.31583071e+00, -4.08421040e-01, 8.15086722e-01, -1.04131615e+00, -8.98506582e-01, 3.55910026e-02, 8.67355645e-01, -8.63493323e-01, -7.40553439e-02, 9.89902914e-01, 2.78481960e-01, 8.47072482e-01, -1.07201599e-01, 3.05995997e-02, 1.26924500e-01, 1.92367673e+00, -5.27597487e-01, 7.66692400e-01, 1.29313350e+00, -1.00734103e+00, -1.45132184e+00, -1.79401517e-01, -8.35303068e-01, -3.33103269e-01, -4.10169959e-01, 3.16442549e-01, -1.07706740e-01, -9.46145594e-01, 6.47399604e-01, -7.97996074e-02, -1.34857035e+00, 9.51273143e-01, 8.75500619e-01, -5.67477882e-01, -5.71787059e-02, 1.02799451e+00, -7.51175344e-01, -1.81962401e-01, 1.81278002e+00, -3.89322281e-01, 1.26822090e+00, 3.06773901e-01, 1.66732502e+00, -1.85758099e-01, 1.98397648e+00, -8.25903535e-01, 1.71903238e-01, -2.89718956e-01, 9.20880258e-01, ... -5.61788738e-01, 1.02851093e+00, -4.12525684e-01, -8.35076511e-01, -1.44159162e+00, 4.30761844e-01, 9.48556900e-01, 4.79852736e-01, 8.44728887e-01, 8.24578762e-01, 1.49953708e-01, -4.97134864e-01, -1.47174016e-01, -4.53732580e-01, 1.16538274e+00, 5.15559733e-01, -4.29277986e-01, -1.18881273e+00, 1.58305430e+00, -8.82515788e-01, 8.59245479e-01, 6.34659708e-01, 6.36602417e-02, -2.14782711e-02, 1.67031884e+00, 1.52320135e+00, -7.66649544e-01, 1.08735943e+00, -1.28447879e-02, -6.23903930e-01, -9.89326715e-01, 1.04802656e+00, -2.55708676e-02, 1.05130303e+00, 1.21438074e+00, 9.05754030e-01, 3.80131960e-01, -2.70310789e-01, 1.13994405e-01, 3.69326055e-01, 1.29952037e+00, 6.52687967e-01, -1.18948072e-02, -2.52712941e+00, 1.48320639e+00, 3.87303501e-01, 1.13697946e+00, -1.40996885e+00, 8.74018669e-01, -1.91716492e-01, 9.01874542e-01, 3.60154104e+00, -7.18332112e-01, -5.62612951e-01, -3.73062283e-01, -1.21108925e+00, 3.61955971e-01, -3.97164762e-01, -6.40098512e-01]], dtype=float32) - m_2023_24_daily(chain, draw, days_2023_24)float320.1388 0.1388 ... -0.6401 -0.6401
array([[[ 0.13878213, 0.13878213, 0.13878213, ..., 0.13878213, 0.13878213, 0.13878213], [-0.7839565 , -0.7839565 , -0.7839565 , ..., -0.7839565 , -0.7839565 , -0.7839565 ], [ 0.19520204, 0.19520204, 0.19520204, ..., 0.19520204, 0.19520204, 0.19520204], ..., [ 0.36195597, 0.36195597, 0.36195597, ..., 0.36195597, 0.36195597, 0.36195597], [-0.39716476, -0.39716476, -0.39716476, ..., -0.39716476, -0.39716476, -0.39716476], [-0.6400985 , -0.6400985 , -0.6400985 , ..., -0.6400985 , -0.6400985 , -0.6400985 ]]], dtype=float32) - m_2024_25(chain, draw)float32-0.6847 1.134 ... 1.484 -0.6544
array([[-6.84699118e-01, 1.13434303e+00, 3.22395802e-01, 4.64326069e-02, -1.03806591e+00, -3.46844673e-01, -1.51872301e+00, 6.76043272e-01, -8.94944012e-01, 1.44355386e-01, 1.36360765e+00, -2.41230186e-02, 4.09031957e-01, 5.01231670e-01, -1.00877547e+00, -1.97995436e+00, 2.58054048e-01, 1.11270356e+00, -2.87352920e+00, -3.41853917e-01, 1.83494949e+00, 1.92641199e+00, 9.66271400e-01, 1.10567831e-01, 1.83150756e+00, 2.55802393e-01, 1.53653824e+00, -3.31090577e-03, 6.30216897e-01, -1.37569726e-01, 6.37925446e-01, 3.19140524e-01, -2.51036525e-01, -7.94580340e-01, -7.16475487e-01, -4.05296087e-01, 3.13550472e-01, -1.03332408e-01, -1.04344833e+00, 6.08647346e-01, -4.83103730e-02, 2.42450349e-02, 1.11899234e-03, -7.79873073e-01, 1.75383604e+00, 2.43933603e-01, 8.06453705e-01, -6.83936298e-01, 1.91756070e-01, 4.51245666e-01, -4.39024359e-01, 9.07800019e-01, -4.92837936e-01, 1.57940161e+00, 4.66651648e-01, 1.51987398e+00, -9.50665355e-01, 3.71335238e-01, -2.70433307e+00, 8.77270162e-01, ... -7.39674091e-01, -7.65895694e-02, -3.98081750e-01, -5.88520765e-01, -2.34481764e+00, 2.14492130e+00, 9.68699038e-01, -1.35881150e+00, 8.81800532e-01, 1.01435137e+00, -4.40857202e-01, -2.10237026e+00, -7.31198132e-01, -3.62894922e-01, 1.18823147e+00, 5.18960536e-01, -4.53317285e-01, -1.67170870e+00, 3.60819697e-01, -1.35098767e+00, 1.93720853e+00, -1.42914200e+00, 2.46122852e-01, -3.35177593e-02, 4.88602757e-01, 3.14839572e-01, -8.78253520e-01, 1.05693650e+00, 5.24023294e-01, -1.68625191e-01, 1.54400080e-01, -2.14096785e+00, 1.05424213e+00, 8.06417048e-01, 1.10797250e+00, 1.02264166e+00, 4.32466269e-01, -1.24135733e-01, -1.14552104e+00, 1.83369756e-01, -1.01322603e+00, 3.48170042e-01, -1.83508117e-02, -9.57462609e-01, 4.17373508e-01, -1.00611711e+00, -6.18811250e-01, 4.43812311e-01, 9.47904408e-01, 1.21757627e-01, -1.24025416e+00, -8.29311430e-01, -3.32465738e-01, -4.74076331e-01, 2.30628535e-01, -1.30114198e+00, -2.32456356e-01, 1.48356986e+00, -6.54384851e-01]], dtype=float32) - m_2024_25_daily(chain, draw, days_2024_25)float32-0.6847 -0.6847 ... -0.6544 -0.6544
array([[[-0.6846991 , -0.6846991 , -0.6846991 , ..., -0.6846991 , -0.6846991 , -0.6846991 ], [ 1.134343 , 1.134343 , 1.134343 , ..., 1.134343 , 1.134343 , 1.134343 ], [ 0.3223958 , 0.3223958 , 0.3223958 , ..., 0.3223958 , 0.3223958 , 0.3223958 ], ..., [-0.23245636, -0.23245636, -0.23245636, ..., -0.23245636, -0.23245636, -0.23245636], [ 1.4835699 , 1.4835699 , 1.4835699 , ..., 1.4835699 , 1.4835699 , 1.4835699 ], [-0.65438485, -0.65438485, -0.65438485, ..., -0.65438485, -0.65438485, -0.65438485]]], dtype=float32) - m_season(chain, draw, season)float32-0.7382 0.1388 ... -0.6401 -0.6544
array([[[-0.73822135, 0.13878213, -0.6846991 ], [ 1.0354692 , -0.7839565 , 1.134343 ], [ 0.6699672 , 0.19520204, 0.3223958 ], ..., [ 0.2336146 , 0.36195597, -0.23245636], [-0.18821198, -0.39716476, 1.4835699 ], [-0.4693136 , -0.6400985 , -0.65438485]]], dtype=float32) - m_season_mu(chain, draw)float320.08216 0.3579 ... -0.09777 -0.6595
array([[ 8.21558312e-02, 3.57894301e-01, 6.74434185e-01, 1.52793527e-01, -5.71986973e-01, -2.77213782e-01, -8.44810545e-01, 4.79119629e-01, -9.25479293e-01, 9.17167962e-02, 1.25628710e+00, 3.56919676e-01, -1.98954254e-01, 8.25288773e-01, -1.03586495e+00, 4.59680520e-03, -2.02692956e-01, 9.36084032e-01, 2.11956166e-02, -1.01742215e-01, 5.63437760e-01, 1.42013454e+00, 8.34697247e-01, -2.98330430e-02, 8.28676447e-02, 2.39673346e-01, 1.30650625e-01, -4.50070769e-01, 4.95560676e-01, 6.05026186e-01, -1.87418163e-01, -3.66970748e-01, -3.99152219e-01, -1.10026336e+00, -4.94863212e-01, -3.93908471e-01, 3.98669541e-01, -1.38727129e-01, -6.32190585e-01, 2.83984035e-01, 6.37198389e-02, -2.50927567e-01, 1.80363461e-01, -1.06189740e+00, 2.02854395e-01, -2.28003174e-01, 7.16086686e-01, -6.53821051e-01, -2.27801949e-02, 5.08477986e-01, -2.33345807e-01, 8.82073879e-01, -2.32304245e-01, 1.55634522e+00, 6.05781516e-03, 1.83617985e+00, -9.28098202e-01, 3.10760736e-01, -3.92349064e-01, 1.10303605e+00, ... -8.57462063e-02, 5.91414332e-01, -4.02816266e-01, -8.55943918e-01, -1.12135005e+00, 1.19109976e+00, 9.64257598e-01, -6.95457339e-01, 8.47002864e-01, 7.84615457e-01, -6.44384623e-01, -5.20118892e-01, -3.24776858e-01, -2.85593390e-01, 1.19198585e+00, 5.16498029e-01, -4.38056529e-01, -2.88145632e-01, 9.44653034e-01, -1.02603245e+00, 1.09030545e+00, 1.05382800e-01, 1.51941106e-01, -3.12239006e-02, 9.85509455e-01, 7.01901674e-01, -7.26769388e-01, 1.31538296e+00, 4.66290832e-01, -7.97098875e-01, -2.22828947e-02, 2.36991137e-01, 1.63032189e-01, 4.16363597e-01, 9.04951870e-01, 1.46612346e-01, 5.01111448e-01, -2.15603620e-01, -7.36199677e-01, 6.42146766e-02, -2.58827209e-01, 6.09470963e-01, 4.85543348e-03, -1.05567873e+00, 1.92570567e-01, -1.01890063e+00, 7.66994536e-01, -2.67408252e-01, 8.14489603e-01, 1.14800350e-04, 1.82007059e-01, -2.97562045e-04, -6.40821338e-01, -1.56266429e-03, 2.45714709e-01, -5.90950012e-01, -1.39360726e-01, -9.77702886e-02, -6.59467638e-01]], dtype=float32) - m_season_sigma(chain, draw)float320.549 0.8592 ... 0.5487 0.08081
array([[5.48998058e-01, 8.59239340e-01, 5.01850307e-01, 2.51118600e-01, 3.82005870e-01, 1.97749496e-01, 1.02531731e+00, 1.09900284e+00, 1.86991259e-01, 2.97397852e-01, 1.76353827e-01, 4.95591760e-01, 5.14709115e-01, 3.22228312e-01, 2.57257577e-02, 9.23905194e-01, 9.19403970e-01, 3.65755051e-01, 1.29335284e+00, 1.60633475e-01, 1.57373273e+00, 8.30257177e-01, 1.44242957e-01, 9.09402296e-02, 1.04227424e+00, 1.61313564e-01, 1.36888456e+00, 3.23255360e-01, 4.77386385e-01, 9.33321834e-01, 4.82558191e-01, 7.23875403e-01, 1.74512848e-01, 5.20576179e-01, 9.72798467e-01, 1.52140232e-02, 6.94537386e-02, 6.44093603e-02, 4.10497397e-01, 3.09594572e-01, 1.43960446e-01, 7.90303111e-01, 4.05294567e-01, 1.05889142e+00, 1.32204854e+00, 2.47314975e-01, 2.02856600e-01, 9.04215649e-02, 1.74105540e-01, 1.20684147e+00, 2.31073678e-01, 4.15914267e-01, 3.63770336e-01, 9.94624272e-02, 3.08416575e-01, 4.27842766e-01, 1.38761446e-01, 9.96679515e-02, 1.62174535e+00, 1.20196915e+00, 3.79699588e-01, 6.25162721e-01, 7.46551812e-01, 6.86637223e-01, 6.71470046e-01, 7.71738827e-01, 8.07648957e-01, 7.44554281e-01, 7.82298565e-01, 5.71473315e-02, 2.70946562e-01, 1.11761823e-01, 6.46843433e-01, 5.67008793e-01, 1.05718637e+00, 6.14563525e-01, 2.60656655e-01, 5.17743349e-01, 9.00311545e-02, 2.28143066e-01, ... 1.44510889e+00, 1.07525158e+00, 1.36987463e-01, 1.43534616e-01, 4.84591365e-01, 9.25967455e-01, 1.29724574e+00, 6.41218781e-01, 7.38000631e-01, 5.19047022e-01, 2.09842190e-01, 6.20037198e-01, 7.13835135e-02, 1.54548991e+00, 1.14747787e+00, 1.35411179e+00, 8.10435057e-01, 2.69666165e-01, 1.31295574e+00, 3.76827456e-02, 4.52593267e-01, 1.85711384e+00, 8.31541121e-01, 9.15013440e-03, 1.52370775e+00, 2.81704720e-02, 4.40807909e-01, 8.28943908e-01, 1.21300101e+00, 1.03091204e+00, 1.85841322e-01, 3.33937295e-02, 2.19420809e-03, 2.69779600e-02, 1.06507421e+00, 5.88091373e-01, 1.53670445e-01, 3.97821903e-01, 7.35848904e-01, 1.80328280e-01, 1.77976303e-02, 1.03180921e+00, 7.81660676e-01, 1.43757060e-01, 6.24851227e-01, 7.14814842e-01, 2.83182800e-01, 1.27281463e+00, 7.03405321e-01, 5.41600704e-01, 7.07858145e-01, 2.96064079e-01, 1.25318217e+00, 8.46257284e-02, 9.99123678e-02, 8.22396219e-01, 5.09384215e-01, 8.46207023e-01, 3.90799612e-01, 1.20277712e-02, 8.77744079e-01, 1.14626777e+00, 7.95549095e-01, 7.47545898e-01, 1.33101106e+00, 7.34667957e-01, 5.64313591e-01, 1.71255231e+00, 1.43939364e+00, 2.55657136e-01, 1.05929160e+00, 6.11725092e-01, 6.81193709e-01, 5.54403245e-01, 5.48650205e-01, 8.08114409e-02]], dtype=float32) - observation_mean(chain, draw, observation)float320.007662 0.009531 ... 0.00106
array([[[7.66177848e-03, 9.53141227e-03, 1.16636464e-02, ..., 1.54293478e-02, 1.27573926e-02, 1.03152292e-02], [2.59183813e-02, 2.79206783e-02, 2.96771117e-02, ..., 0.00000000e+00, 0.00000000e+00, 0.00000000e+00], [6.88230172e-02, 6.23681732e-02, 5.22065796e-02, ..., 3.34753102e-04, 2.06610493e-04, 1.27484062e-04], ..., [4.41157434e-04, 1.44522125e-02, 2.54337072e-01, ..., 6.87533291e-04, 6.87419553e-04, 6.87292428e-04], [5.25236614e-02, 3.99819985e-02, 2.76116543e-02, ..., 0.00000000e+00, 0.00000000e+00, 0.00000000e+00], [1.81324668e-02, 1.89162102e-02, 1.93468407e-02, ..., 1.61453860e-03, 1.30908540e-03, 1.05963543e-03]]], dtype=float32) - observation_sigma(chain, draw)float320.0006945 0.004077 ... 0.004015
array([[6.94468385e-04, 4.07722173e-03, 5.24563424e-04, 3.88338207e-03, 3.84362694e-03, 7.00012664e-04, 1.23210391e-02, 3.75555130e-03, 2.67873111e-04, 8.27618316e-03, 2.16951687e-03, 5.62777137e-03, 2.35319967e-04, 5.75970160e-03, 4.89567220e-03, 2.35276553e-03, 6.20120857e-03, 3.58769583e-04, 5.15110139e-03, 9.51451133e-04, 1.13280285e-02, 6.33572577e-04, 4.02305974e-03, 3.84755875e-03, 8.61431938e-03, 1.54010784e-02, 2.64606555e-03, 4.92050452e-03, 6.37663342e-03, 4.71887505e-03, 3.73033428e-04, 1.36534469e-02, 1.19410278e-02, 5.44325972e-04, 9.52081103e-03, 6.17158413e-03, 4.59887291e-04, 5.23391226e-03, 4.82106488e-03, 1.53964513e-03, 9.29872412e-03, 9.14152304e-04, 2.42990907e-03, 6.14632573e-03, 1.61998551e-02, 6.04122877e-03, 1.08557101e-02, 1.33566582e-03, 2.28158641e-03, 1.49078132e-03, 3.87193635e-03, 4.99331718e-03, 4.31981636e-03, 1.12532137e-03, 3.44420550e-03, 2.46162730e-04, 2.83566560e-03, 2.97469017e-03, 6.49765227e-03, 6.10703276e-03, 7.18168507e-04, 3.55580146e-03, 2.26563029e-03, 4.66886631e-05, 2.40251399e-03, 3.40367854e-03, 1.24928150e-02, 1.77108101e-03, 3.00164247e-04, 9.84077621e-03, 3.47256288e-03, 3.27328919e-03, 1.50620937e-03, 1.01308580e-02, 5.50975092e-04, 6.59896107e-03, 3.72021372e-04, 9.61854064e-04, 6.02893182e-04, 1.23015710e-03, ... 3.17013636e-02, 6.92202989e-03, 7.20604649e-03, 1.54309950e-04, 4.26998502e-03, 6.53527537e-03, 1.21804493e-04, 6.36879168e-03, 8.31819046e-03, 6.99902140e-03, 1.58976745e-02, 3.30034737e-03, 1.21929413e-02, 8.89418821e-04, 5.86553523e-03, 1.99244218e-03, 2.60654185e-03, 9.37452819e-03, 2.81393621e-03, 7.36920279e-04, 3.02059785e-03, 1.71265693e-03, 3.31969094e-03, 4.50297631e-03, 1.18907623e-03, 7.28127873e-03, 5.13707986e-03, 1.48760853e-03, 2.32674438e-03, 1.80503901e-03, 3.37762013e-03, 1.04149757e-03, 3.45890038e-03, 4.29998431e-03, 3.13347060e-04, 4.80136881e-03, 6.88529201e-03, 9.85410297e-04, 1.54827908e-03, 1.04389281e-03, 2.96495366e-03, 5.48547367e-04, 6.90619135e-03, 2.52420572e-03, 1.72295887e-02, 1.06080864e-02, 1.80254749e-04, 6.98913541e-03, 3.29089817e-03, 6.11560466e-03, 2.23789481e-03, 2.05933563e-02, 9.49318928e-04, 4.21671337e-03, 4.04360611e-03, 9.36657190e-03, 2.69138068e-03, 8.07661191e-03, 5.24370419e-03, 1.43304956e-03, 5.55610051e-03, 2.49835406e-03, 6.11318694e-03, 9.00004804e-03, 9.00160114e-04, 5.15110034e-04, 7.17293296e-04, 5.00360830e-03, 1.05728824e-02, 1.62460450e-02, 4.60160663e-03, 1.84715837e-02, 1.32921170e-02, 3.13034817e-03, 1.54080987e-03, 4.01462940e-03]], dtype=float32) - observation_sim(chain, draw, observation)float320.005833 0.009607 ... 0.01687
array([[[ 5.83338784e-03, 9.60709527e-03, 9.70755890e-03, ..., 1.38598392e-02, 1.43240700e-02, 8.48171674e-03], [ 7.12419022e-03, 3.03166360e-02, 2.82776412e-02, ..., -6.11281814e-03, -2.70317518e-03, -1.72326230e-02], [ 6.72687516e-02, 6.30814359e-02, 5.24568111e-02, ..., 1.03446143e-03, 2.12699069e-05, -1.13510818e-03], ..., [-2.53615389e-03, 1.78356525e-02, 2.45113716e-01, ..., -2.00144551e-03, 1.00842845e-02, -4.68099117e-03], [ 5.73171452e-02, 3.35364714e-02, 2.76928302e-02, ..., -3.53079755e-03, 2.37767724e-03, -6.26153592e-03], [ 1.37887197e-02, 1.01242075e-02, 2.16373093e-02, ..., 1.28315156e-02, -1.32476622e-02, 1.68687571e-02]]], dtype=float32) - r_2022_23(chain, draw)float32-3.226 -3.675 ... -2.542 -3.545
array([[ -3.2258692 , -3.675077 , -2.801423 , -3.3354273 , 1.854186 , -2.4763641 , -2.4813511 , -2.4717715 , -2.3425744 , -3.3900108 , -3.1017237 , -2.2799642 , -2.181382 , -1.7528852 , -0.9603558 , -3.45478 , -0.27860042, -0.74330086, -2.1131928 , -5.064963 , 0.8178882 , -2.2080662 , -1.6923413 , -1.6643325 , -1.0746152 , 0.5226558 , -0.9935362 , -2.934579 , 0.24678016, 1.3811959 , -1.7374923 , -4.5947056 , -4.349004 , -1.6253672 , -0.28665257, -1.0812035 , -0.19498822, -4.057787 , -2.8415446 , -4.082396 , -1.85108 , -1.950601 , -4.334297 , -2.9536505 , -0.8884868 , -1.0029407 , -4.6014833 , -4.418056 , 0.975902 , -0.96692 , -2.9739861 , -1.4122392 , -4.4206614 , -4.193811 , -0.87815624, 0.3007044 , -0.9231215 , -4.7775917 , -2.6589432 , 2.1207352 , -1.8312585 , -2.382582 , -1.9104278 , -1.5449644 , -0.6361681 , -1.9710625 , 7.183504 , 2.8355615 , -3.7350788 , -1.0117258 , -3.6719608 , -2.3477387 , -5.6628804 , -0.87857085, -3.8874633 , -1.0553813 , -4.2558794 , -2.0450351 , -2.2142503 , -3.6691554 , ... 0.6339802 , -1.7865062 , -2.486059 , -0.93212605, -2.0214102 , -1.7950004 , -0.73621273, -2.2813284 , -1.6292274 , -3.8529236 , -6.3470764 , -3.9629054 , -4.731398 , -3.1458304 , -5.8103614 , -5.7825637 , 0.68404204, -1.0548621 , -2.6584578 , -1.8005724 , -0.30060646, -0.71275276, 1.5266814 , -2.828147 , -3.2676198 , -2.0551639 , -2.007572 , -4.1350336 , -1.0028814 , -2.146899 , -2.3269315 , -2.749691 , -1.2614655 , -4.646728 , -1.5234803 , -4.9683394 , -1.8210921 , -2.5009468 , -5.7468724 , -0.3220357 , -4.558139 , -3.559454 , -2.166998 , -3.4378798 , -2.9595835 , -3.6491883 , -1.9179432 , 2.4269357 , -2.1066737 , -3.526119 , -2.3097992 , -2.2811904 , -2.52784 , -5.4595294 , -1.1535103 , -1.087267 , -8.065232 , 0.52731067, -3.8705 , -2.30119 , -3.7623463 , -1.2285476 , -3.0404344 , -7.919707 , -5.9969506 , -4.7769265 , -3.4964032 , -1.7623149 , -2.728127 , -0.8192078 , -4.576338 , -4.8713884 , -3.5254319 , -0.68867135, -2.5418181 , -3.545124 ]], dtype=float32) - r_2022_23_daily(chain, draw, days_2022_23)float32-3.226 -3.226 ... -3.545 -3.545
array([[[-3.2258692 , -3.2258692 , -3.2258692 , ..., -3.2258692 , -3.2258692 , -3.2258692 ], [-3.675077 , -3.675077 , -3.675077 , ..., -3.675077 , -3.675077 , -3.675077 ], [-2.801423 , -2.801423 , -2.801423 , ..., -2.801423 , -2.801423 , -2.801423 ], ..., [-0.68867135, -0.68867135, -0.68867135, ..., -0.68867135, -0.68867135, -0.68867135], [-2.5418181 , -2.5418181 , -2.5418181 , ..., -2.5418181 , -2.5418181 , -2.5418181 ], [-3.545124 , -3.545124 , -3.545124 , ..., -3.545124 , -3.545124 , -3.545124 ]]], dtype=float32) - r_2023_24(chain, draw)float32-2.072 -3.203 ... -4.239 -3.558
array([[-2.0721884e+00, -3.2028935e+00, -2.9718330e+00, -3.5842202e+00, 1.8619568e+00, -4.5197549e+00, -2.7877647e-01, -2.3560259e+00, -8.6061031e-01, -3.0123951e+00, -6.2363472e+00, 3.2784921e-01, -2.3054144e+00, 2.1193524e-01, 1.1556919e+00, -2.7200813e+00, -5.0153623e+00, -2.5530236e+00, -6.9478720e-01, -2.8444917e+00, 3.1228135e+00, -4.7059255e+00, -2.2743375e+00, -1.0933504e+00, -3.8345151e+00, -2.2403061e+00, 1.6144444e+00, -2.5889580e+00, -1.2546439e-01, -3.3409944e+00, -4.9877834e+00, -5.8568926e+00, -3.5276711e+00, -1.5614493e+00, -7.9670733e-01, -2.7181587e+00, -3.5273602e+00, -3.6633563e+00, 9.1366392e-01, -5.2227430e+00, 2.9649646e+00, 3.5773289e+00, -3.0550389e+00, 1.1764585e+00, -4.8738047e-01, -1.4912181e+00, -2.3077867e+00, -1.5844678e+00, -1.8167084e+00, -3.5759420e+00, -4.4380724e-01, -9.8939925e-01, 7.5347209e-01, -2.2463269e+00, -5.9330022e-01, 1.6668286e+00, -3.0606208e+00, -4.7532139e+00, -2.7044690e+00, -2.2752810e+00, -4.9401951e+00, -2.2865531e+00, -4.1105719e+00, -1.6392679e+00, -5.1704675e-01, -1.9214857e+00, -1.3993056e+00, 1.5239826e+00, -3.2703300e+00, -8.4608126e-01, -3.6871452e+00, -2.1134615e+00, -9.9636831e+00, -2.9728515e+00, -3.7967994e+00, -2.1542752e+00, -2.9638476e+00, 3.5958156e-01, -3.1699951e+00, -5.3995805e+00, ... -5.2794471e+00, -9.4297832e-01, 2.0748866e+00, -1.3621315e+00, -2.1868193e+00, -1.0567432e-01, -9.6048659e-01, -5.6380877e+00, -2.6994410e+00, -2.6453726e+00, -6.1402159e+00, -3.7063696e+00, -1.8005518e+00, -3.2389257e+00, -4.8031139e+00, -4.7416849e+00, -1.2222937e+00, -1.0449545e+00, -1.5148774e+00, -1.7583753e+00, -2.0732017e+00, -6.2403994e+00, 7.9961234e-01, -4.7837977e+00, -3.9108014e+00, 2.1812735e+00, -1.3302115e+00, -3.4819217e+00, -1.4901811e+00, -4.4753237e+00, -1.5935637e+00, 2.5045516e+00, -1.2942061e+00, -3.7820215e+00, 3.9399034e-01, -2.2185059e+00, -2.8016326e+00, -3.1983811e-01, -9.2135544e+00, -5.3486848e-01, -4.2684560e+00, -3.3477478e+00, -1.8175437e+00, -5.1184154e+00, -3.8702946e+00, -5.6901555e+00, -2.3421173e+00, -2.2039306e+00, -2.8374543e+00, -2.9587758e+00, -4.7665219e+00, -2.6775868e+00, -2.3470604e+00, -4.5913024e+00, -3.2510397e-01, -4.6281948e+00, -6.9967341e+00, -2.3556297e+00, -3.6741107e+00, 7.6917571e-01, -3.7771749e+00, -3.2001996e-01, -3.8226254e+00, -1.8966402e+00, -3.9811878e+00, 1.0720340e+00, -3.5142040e+00, -3.0261087e+00, -3.0484169e+00, 1.6378570e-01, -4.9102445e+00, -4.2216825e+00, -6.8980489e+00, -9.2012799e-01, -4.2386036e+00, -3.5578792e+00]], dtype=float32) - r_2023_24_daily(chain, draw, days_2023_24)float32-2.072 -2.072 ... -3.558 -3.558
array([[[-2.0721884, -2.0721884, -2.0721884, ..., -2.0721884, -2.0721884, -2.0721884], [-3.2028935, -3.2028935, -3.2028935, ..., -3.2028935, -3.2028935, -3.2028935], [-2.971833 , -2.971833 , -2.971833 , ..., -2.971833 , -2.971833 , -2.971833 ], ..., [-0.920128 , -0.920128 , -0.920128 , ..., -0.920128 , -0.920128 , -0.920128 ], [-4.2386036, -4.2386036, -4.2386036, ..., -4.2386036, -4.2386036, -4.2386036], [-3.5578792, -3.5578792, -3.5578792, ..., -3.5578792, -3.5578792, -3.5578792]]], dtype=float32) - r_2024_25(chain, draw)float32-3.175 0.009447 ... -0.9697 -3.467
array([[-3.1752603e+00, 9.4474116e-03, -2.6726527e+00, -5.2230144e+00, -9.4934827e-01, -6.4033694e+00, -2.8260860e+00, -2.7242458e+00, 5.1207983e-01, -2.9529266e+00, -2.0350688e+00, -9.0990394e-01, -2.5769081e+00, -1.2629030e+00, -9.8177247e-02, -3.7970054e+00, -2.1996949e+00, -3.0927238e+00, -9.4509995e-01, -1.7452277e+00, -2.2876685e+00, -2.4415002e+00, -1.9242532e+00, -1.3343252e+00, -2.2949214e+00, -4.0588121e+00, 1.8404412e+00, -2.3917749e+00, 6.3995850e-01, -6.9276743e+00, -5.1610625e-01, -2.8284147e+00, -3.3448391e+00, -1.6642642e+00, -7.6072842e-01, -4.4438848e+00, -5.8889127e+00, -4.4510336e+00, 2.0982037e+00, -3.1728439e+00, -6.0718648e-02, -3.2290676e-01, -3.2878554e+00, -3.4998200e+00, -1.0669775e+00, -1.0413935e+00, -3.6781042e+00, -3.3158655e+00, -8.6185914e-01, -2.7075691e+00, -6.6677365e+00, 2.0181909e-01, -3.6170270e+00, -2.8186996e+00, -2.7197478e+00, -2.5652137e-01, -6.5234470e-01, -4.7738175e+00, -2.6392946e+00, 3.7534811e+00, -5.3615727e+00, -3.8077290e+00, -1.6256776e+00, -1.5793524e+00, -3.1338813e+00, -2.2208939e+00, -3.6776137e-01, -1.9689696e+00, -3.3077226e+00, -2.9857278e+00, -3.8333843e+00, -2.0463634e+00, -1.6881548e+01, -5.0010610e-01, -3.7228136e+00, -2.4151974e+00, -3.0793307e+00, 1.2306583e+00, -1.6663487e+00, -4.5910888e+00, ... -6.7846670e+00, -4.4126725e-01, -1.7742506e+00, -1.2616073e+00, -2.3694258e+00, -1.0472193e+00, -1.1529294e+00, -5.0895281e+00, 1.7510766e+00, -4.2298250e+00, -6.3530159e+00, -3.9683475e+00, -1.7857393e+00, -3.0215859e+00, -3.9198132e+00, -6.3567891e+00, -1.6471848e+00, -9.1428685e-01, -3.5754676e+00, -2.6560380e+00, -5.9846439e+00, -3.3805323e+00, 1.4176008e+00, -2.4986179e+00, -2.1870382e+00, 1.9460326e+00, -3.7548971e+00, -1.8074273e+00, -4.0430170e-01, -2.6316645e+00, -2.3039365e+00, -9.3226039e-01, -1.5159534e+00, -4.5010991e+00, -3.3269325e-01, -1.8250881e+00, -1.7811474e+00, -3.3066779e-01, -6.6397848e+00, -5.3546716e-02, -1.7619590e+00, -2.6860819e+00, -3.9980433e+00, -4.6381207e+00, -4.8056097e+00, -5.3483605e+00, -1.2743223e+00, 8.2246695e+00, -1.8651921e+00, -3.4739959e+00, -3.3788006e+00, -2.3563926e+00, -2.3403764e+00, -5.3094921e+00, -1.0423024e+00, 1.8153291e+00, -1.1670778e+01, 1.2701664e+00, -4.4729834e+00, -5.2110653e+00, -4.5421081e+00, -3.1293232e+00, -3.9004080e+00, -4.0629058e+00, -5.1388254e+00, -3.0310123e+00, -3.3280661e+00, -3.1526310e+00, -3.2294352e+00, -3.2492653e-01, -4.4188628e+00, -3.6310198e+00, -5.6900311e+00, -7.0252733e+00, -9.6966869e-01, -3.4671309e+00]], dtype=float32) - r_2024_25_daily(chain, draw, days_2024_25)float32-3.175 -3.175 ... -3.467 -3.467
array([[[-3.1752603 , -3.1752603 , -3.1752603 , ..., -3.1752603 , -3.1752603 , -3.1752603 ], [ 0.00944741, 0.00944741, 0.00944741, ..., 0.00944741, 0.00944741, 0.00944741], [-2.6726527 , -2.6726527 , -2.6726527 , ..., -2.6726527 , -2.6726527 , -2.6726527 ], ..., [-7.0252733 , -7.0252733 , -7.0252733 , ..., -7.0252733 , -7.0252733 , -7.0252733 ], [-0.9696687 , -0.9696687 , -0.9696687 , ..., -0.9696687 , -0.9696687 , -0.9696687 ], [-3.467131 , -3.467131 , -3.467131 , ..., -3.467131 , -3.467131 , -3.467131 ]]], dtype=float32) - r_season(chain, draw, season)float32-3.226 -2.072 ... -3.558 -3.467
array([[[-3.2258692 , -2.0721884 , -3.1752603 ], [-3.675077 , -3.2028935 , 0.00944741], [-2.801423 , -2.971833 , -2.6726527 ], ..., [-0.68867135, -0.920128 , -7.0252733 ], [-2.5418181 , -4.2386036 , -0.9696687 ], [-3.545124 , -3.5578792 , -3.467131 ]]], dtype=float32) - r_season_mu(chain, draw)float32-3.72 -2.067 ... -2.585 -3.502
array([[-3.7200263 , -2.066847 , -2.6173978 , -2.1244133 , 0.18888453, -4.61232 , -1.971294 , -2.5100436 , -1.7126911 , -3.2301304 , -4.046659 , -1.9273462 , -2.5125277 , -1.8880123 , -0.80190593, -3.061313 , -3.9772944 , -0.7762067 , -2.1008542 , -3.4468267 , -0.91560113, -2.5560803 , -2.185985 , -1.378719 , -2.9716208 , -2.6638596 , -0.8078901 , -1.8921422 , 0.1657636 , -1.6456409 , -2.426632 , -3.4580102 , -3.4931476 , -1.5515851 , -0.40863174, -3.4324155 , -3.6993277 , -3.8151217 , -0.98722404, -4.3840647 , -1.8256366 , -0.31652614, -4.4215803 , -1.9694082 , -0.9362322 , -1.4409907 , -3.6211367 , -2.7928367 , -1.2882905 , -2.7766063 , -2.880552 , -1.614894 , -3.255544 , -3.9126318 , -1.7313981 , 0.16319105, -1.8601792 , -4.7660065 , -2.6550424 , -0.33806327, -5.056463 , -3.4038546 , -2.5991569 , -1.6352994 , -1.6840851 , -1.9597433 , 0.01818473, -1.5275381 , -3.6346474 , -1.6739398 , -3.5167944 , -2.0061674 , -7.94875 , -1.9508162 , -4.147702 , -2.3523016 , -3.0330358 , -2.920582 , -1.9250575 , -3.8939414 , -4.4625425 , -2.8684018 , -2.296387 , -1.1465063 , -3.4263692 , -2.0774255 , -3.277519 , -3.631559 , -0.86361843, -3.211362 , -3.1245897 , -3.0402076 , -1.9734254 , -2.9197505 , -1.9704856 , -3.2975898 , -3.8569388 , -2.6249452 , -3.6173112 , -4.0778995 , ... -1.7219244 , -3.4265313 , -2.6562145 , -1.8308314 , -3.492131 , -3.1972802 , -3.5933068 , -1.730229 , -4.026357 , -3.4262161 , -3.6778557 , -1.083973 , -1.7778451 , 0.08443553, -2.2800345 , -2.9914808 , -1.1744581 , -1.989208 , -2.3119025 , -3.1257465 , -1.2242333 , -1.9458736 , -1.1475673 , -2.4180064 , -1.1899965 , -1.4717214 , -3.2284296 , -2.1086202 , -3.6393788 , -6.5218925 , -4.3264947 , -2.7009754 , -3.1104345 , -4.155587 , -4.8147054 , -1.4597961 , -0.9944639 , -2.3794699 , -2.2791016 , -2.4019415 , -3.8838658 , 1.3064126 , -3.6641557 , -3.3528185 , -1.7750169 , -2.878407 , -2.9909544 , -0.5367075 , -2.8200703 , -2.1443079 , 0.83706295, -1.3513489 , -4.4253244 , -1.8037337 , -2.3073804 , -2.2806435 , -3.1325107 , -7.30725 , -0.6229926 , -1.9297608 , -3.8543482 , -1.991634 , -3.2589939 , -4.070507 , -4.628188 , -3.2120352 , -1.1200583 , -2.0670583 , -3.1861205 , -3.7007856 , -2.3365536 , -2.4674215 , -5.195818 , -1.1904414 , -2.6104927 , -3.8971004 , -0.68531513, -2.1937978 , -3.5682118 , -2.5317013 , -1.3733294 , -2.760337 , -2.4147365 , -5.6717052 , -1.2481434 , -3.4907987 , -2.385267 , -3.2274215 , -0.15015794, -4.7392015 , -3.7804167 , -4.1704235 , -2.3966131 , -2.5850832 , -3.5019307 ]], dtype=float32) - r_season_sigma(chain, draw)float321.125 1.744 ... 1.384 0.05951
array([[1.1250181 , 1.7438043 , 0.16158298, 1.8344439 , 1.2772275 , 2.175897 , 1.347396 , 0.23698837, 0.9852844 , 0.5476442 , 2.253992 , 1.1256148 , 0.22478436, 1.2927694 , 0.90907735, 0.4558345 , 2.1063697 , 1.2921058 , 1.4637392 , 1.0344867 , 2.0879607 , 2.0174024 , 0.39099854, 0.29941726, 1.5145416 , 3.4436462 , 2.5542734 , 1.2738912 , 0.24318726, 3.437623 , 2.0840783 , 1.6878332 , 0.413214 , 0.21370585, 0.3349439 , 1.0788461 , 2.0949771 , 0.73915595, 2.212277 , 1.1071874 , 1.9002745 , 2.2420945 , 1.318564 , 1.6523508 , 0.2090766 , 0.8357486 , 0.905118 , 1.7104741 , 2.3883271 , 1.1333296 , 2.6691666 , 1.6018907 , 1.6980109 , 2.4835498 , 0.7913134 , 1.427884 , 2.7728868 , 0.03290053, 0.05768904, 2.1115713 , 1.3237275 , 0.7311809 , 1.8554565 , 0.0985029 , 1.4423143 , 0.19741084, 3.0346267 , 2.3896751 , 0.7075308 , 0.7653776 , 0.5866442 , 0.1345081 , 3.5563679 , 1.3430406 , 0.79028094, 0.69582 , 1.1640451 , 3.3208797 , 1.1215655 , 1.2796563 , 0.6279772 , 1.7951269 , 0.39535144, 1.2629015 , 0.54654187, 0.22202629, 1.2163963 , 1.3821356 , 1.5604615 , 2.1342242 , 0.3900216 , 0.16602345, 0.90020245, 1.5685483 , 2.0717182 , 1.251709 , 1.0266892 , 0.41392562, 2.4402862 , 2.0725586 , ... 2.0527701 , 1.464293 , 0.06393003, 1.2704209 , 1.1068854 , 1.8735129 , 1.5850859 , 1.0809152 , 0.7263314 , 1.1560109 , 1.7914298 , 1.2787824 , 0.01077676, 0.5129957 , 1.4201598 , 1.6543375 , 0.7105575 , 0.02247224, 1.0030135 , 3.3450558 , 0.6362489 , 2.1256618 , 0.33179796, 0.774972 , 0.5491906 , 1.3177679 , 1.4556508 , 1.6252184 , 1.3547314 , 0.26366818, 0.28197494, 2.1268141 , 0.145109 , 2.1190658 , 1.099345 , 1.3262242 , 0.07076533, 0.5730587 , 0.52453375, 2.5978217 , 1.9861314 , 0.5571454 , 1.7507147 , 0.5981417 , 1.5049207 , 1.3931096 , 1.0831176 , 0.5568359 , 1.5086417 , 0.3778619 , 1.5524786 , 0.12290474, 0.7010917 , 1.6250427 , 1.8909081 , 1.841913 , 3.5410302 , 0.89277935, 0.6533012 , 2.5099287 , 0.61197317, 0.94298935, 1.2241479 , 1.1121706 , 2.8352096 , 1.025709 , 4.1109715 , 0.7185644 , 0.77 , 1.3118067 , 2.5280955 , 0.21622887, 1.0928899 , 0.3923706 , 2.7091894 , 4.129172 , 3.2566693 , 1.8153955 , 2.3746536 , 1.3797543 , 1.4657502 , 0.972476 , 3.4092774 , 2.5069962 , 2.1325634 , 0.39844617, 1.0697421 , 0.27548933, 0.44036078, 0.34756505, 1.2912937 , 2.6337318 , 1.8954369 , 1.3838084 , 0.05951132]], dtype=float32) - s_2022_23(chain, draw)float3260.07 41.85 -1.385 ... -7.602 21.28
array([[ 60.07309 , 41.85238 , -1.3848752 , 51.452557 , 44.773407 , 84.39958 , 51.325626 , 24.503937 , 38.81663 , 6.8263397 , 3.085049 , 64.060745 , 2.105541 , 45.553215 , 40.645287 , 52.260567 , 50.218018 , 38.962395 , 40.180717 , -8.123406 , 28.5517 , 32.35862 , 31.251633 , 15.868168 , 7.974743 , 88.11076 , 156.84784 , -0.9253625 , 26.890747 , 29.948109 , 12.7592325 , 62.619686 , 14.065478 , 23.742212 , 44.36705 , 31.417448 , 50.02656 , 28.394993 , 15.870935 , 44.790306 , 24.502384 , 30.376083 , 84.76357 , 65.33207 , 13.711488 , 19.780577 , 48.513657 , 34.380867 , 28.103128 , 9.855236 , 54.438656 , 2.4494305 , 20.147566 , 27.16482 , 22.220987 , 70.10333 , 29.733078 , -8.278848 , 42.596687 , 7.036182 , 30.00865 , 47.5602 , 41.360188 , 6.5721183 , 24.251976 , 65.37638 , 13.064386 , 31.350092 , 71.75246 , 65.9723 , 39.443745 , 62.721226 , 62.09365 , 38.81121 , 32.186653 , 33.941975 , 40.70801 , 22.563671 , -4.8667407 , 1.2791901 , ... 14.7115755 , 51.89174 , 42.612137 , 6.381091 , 62.784832 , 31.25396 , 18.73378 , 42.12438 , 28.138136 , 65.952385 , 47.249382 , 48.159664 , 12.707733 , 31.086365 , 4.0418425 , 34.93437 , 44.55718 , 22.003761 , 1.899284 , 80.11091 , 13.644433 , 91.612366 , 34.857822 , 15.216086 , 7.363476 , 41.994854 , 11.809189 , 21.76182 , -19.714746 , 43.374794 , -5.090427 , 46.85758 , 46.068737 , 9.824544 , 49.3791 , 9.185524 , 25.170546 , 34.034023 , 104.878136 , 35.21797 , 75.25882 , 31.21318 , 43.171288 , 39.432602 , 31.863857 , 39.548077 , 25.135126 , 33.34569 , 27.257286 , 11.027552 , 77.08503 , 63.205658 , 20.380856 , 28.59822 , 40.783596 , 51.59094 , -15.452133 , 81.055916 , 20.859169 , 7.649922 , 54.37563 , 38.211395 , 63.966843 , 63.84926 , 45.80987 , 25.882298 , 19.515474 , 1.0529504 , 17.283245 , 26.962868 , 22.939003 , 64.55878 , 24.211992 , 20.63952 , -7.601713 , 21.276993 ]], dtype=float32) - s_2022_23_daily(chain, draw, days_2022_23)float3260.07 60.07 60.07 ... 21.28 21.28
array([[[60.07309 , 60.07309 , 60.07309 , ..., 60.07309 , 60.07309 , 60.07309 ], [41.85238 , 41.85238 , 41.85238 , ..., 41.85238 , 41.85238 , 41.85238 ], [-1.3848752, -1.3848752, -1.3848752, ..., -1.3848752, -1.3848752, -1.3848752], ..., [20.63952 , 20.63952 , 20.63952 , ..., 20.63952 , 20.63952 , 20.63952 ], [-7.601713 , -7.601713 , -7.601713 , ..., -7.601713 , -7.601713 , -7.601713 ], [21.276993 , 21.276993 , 21.276993 , ..., 21.276993 , 21.276993 , 21.276993 ]]], dtype=float32) - s_2023_24(chain, draw)float3265.8 126.9 19.86 ... -8.761 22.06
array([[ 65.80169 , 126.863716 , 19.864319 , -7.2802525, 25.931288 , 36.99696 , 103.69134 , 66.863594 , 44.212433 , 6.975675 , 15.5147915, 85.44619 , -6.0741816, 71.241486 , 47.658104 , 53.915237 , 43.379097 , 12.919242 , 5.466273 , -30.983513 , 41.831013 , 131.69945 , 21.57465 , 29.79307 , 6.0002184, 73.66759 , 28.66632 , 20.953815 , 24.51784 , 33.44177 , 28.320452 , 75.31095 , -6.7041817, 31.77645 , 32.787735 , 20.685707 , 54.99989 , 71.334114 , 11.152596 , 56.57124 , 14.906746 , 20.059168 , 83.78013 , 62.88427 , 20.16996 , 30.196556 , 47.1061 , 12.411039 , 49.069702 , 12.568561 , 7.300834 , 0.9863408, 25.300909 , 24.29751 , -1.5978594, 74.88016 , 7.052106 , 8.148637 , 75.33439 , 32.261734 , -2.9223337, 45.486526 , 33.908882 , 27.494343 , 13.762572 , 69.8299 , -37.305817 , 32.248123 , 25.38622 , 70.854385 , 34.482548 , -53.999676 , 51.7645 , 58.896835 , 27.670965 , 33.964172 , 46.47007 , 15.94068 , -3.6246128, -18.158674 , -17.547832 , 46.177933 , 41.654617 , -28.943472 , 53.794716 , 31.118832 , 50.596333 , 63.902378 , 16.161308 , 42.36953 , 48.023445 , -24.926092 , 39.048164 , 27.914686 , 41.174538 , 15.608359 , 32.04955 , 30.680826 , 114.40555 , 47.139038 , ... 54.91822 , 7.346464 , 26.564922 , 97.90996 , 38.67634 , 7.017401 , 40.286503 , 42.892567 , 69.44062 , 25.523317 , 45.036346 , 35.70317 , 29.49192 , 5.0460167, 77.87821 , 66.387085 , 18.950571 , 34.00621 , 70.31672 , 31.130554 , 68.46133 , 45.757507 , 14.238493 , 45.66079 , 16.767307 , 23.50558 , -3.6747475, 18.91276 , 19.544533 , 42.854477 , 34.707832 , 84.92825 , -16.636593 , 21.292234 , 42.080456 , 45.275394 , 39.172005 , 11.955417 , 81.63777 , 45.31196 , 44.8493 , 40.914616 , 30.350069 , 7.364419 , 32.01403 , 57.299625 , 19.69105 , 0.6517647, 18.73754 , 38.12957 , 43.498405 , 51.770298 , -52.673546 , 52.151207 , -27.403053 , 48.077976 , 86.03883 , 78.43223 , -0.9868867, 66.83473 , 31.031193 , 30.63096 , 35.24352 , 20.77421 , 26.127417 , 48.170635 , 26.660324 , 27.907179 , -7.9235406, 65.77551 , 72.280235 , 29.05073 , 29.333088 , 46.59719 , 50.717537 , 24.583347 , 57.75297 , 14.582126 , 46.600777 , 52.9349 , 33.880943 , 32.05728 , 26.256588 , 33.104565 , 34.753906 , 14.30411 , 9.425771 , 17.58417 , 22.66664 , 23.237461 , 64.67362 , 25.501476 , 12.158056 , -8.761094 , 22.055552 ]], dtype=float32) - s_2023_24_daily(chain, draw, days_2023_24)float3265.8 65.8 65.8 ... 22.06 22.06
array([[[ 65.80169 , 65.80169 , 65.80169 , ..., 65.80169 , 65.80169 , 65.80169 ], [126.863716, 126.863716, 126.863716, ..., 126.863716, 126.863716, 126.863716], [ 19.864319, 19.864319, 19.864319, ..., 19.864319, 19.864319, 19.864319], ..., [ 12.158056, 12.158056, 12.158056, ..., 12.158056, 12.158056, 12.158056], [ -8.761094, -8.761094, -8.761094, ..., -8.761094, -8.761094, -8.761094], [ 22.055552, 22.055552, 22.055552, ..., 22.055552, 22.055552, 22.055552]]], dtype=float32) - s_2024_25(chain, draw)float3267.16 38.49 3.451 ... -12.39 -20.5
array([[ 6.71582260e+01, 3.84915390e+01, 3.45148540e+00, 4.61573715e+01, 3.28260269e+01, 7.50154037e+01, 4.42240715e+01, 2.87449055e+01, 4.15580482e+01, 7.00652409e+00, -7.58765936e+00, 7.58661804e+01, 1.23759699e+01, 6.30111122e+01, 3.86968651e+01, 5.48827133e+01, 5.29583588e+01, 7.87833869e-01, 1.38886452e+01, 4.10502739e+01, 3.91530571e+01, 5.92095222e+01, 2.75384140e+01, 1.88819351e+01, 5.06081696e+01, 5.06050110e+01, 8.96769638e+01, 5.43149948e+00, 7.25228653e+01, 3.34717484e+01, -4.84121418e+00, 1.00206139e+02, -6.84910011e+00, 5.47506714e+01, 3.92800369e+01, 1.06901770e+01, 5.23577881e+01, 3.46546249e+01, 4.37109261e+01, 2.76465702e+01, 1.62738419e+01, 4.74295883e+01, 8.66357422e+01, 7.44339752e+01, 1.91208248e+01, 8.14597034e+00, 7.84763412e+01, 2.92744770e+01, 3.46747589e+01, 1.52917137e+01, 1.07991610e+01, 6.69554996e+00, 2.64662228e+01, 1.25451756e+00, 1.61391602e+01, 6.06585693e+01, 1.67010379e+00, -1.44258177e+00, 6.21051445e+01, 2.65750656e+01, ... 4.62580338e+01, 2.01199055e+01, 8.58516006e+01, 8.09375305e+01, 8.22258911e+01, 4.62272186e+01, 4.99518280e+01, 2.66681957e+01, 3.59575462e+01, 6.05795403e+01, 1.79367771e+01, -4.25320206e+01, 1.98286819e+01, 5.16031113e+01, 4.36886406e+01, 3.08624611e+01, -9.81702805e+00, -2.87655125e+01, 1.48311357e+01, 2.54421425e+01, 6.54299850e+01, 6.77170792e+01, 1.39747887e+01, 2.90279865e+01, 3.09675941e+01, 1.90952168e+01, 3.86968613e+01, 4.88200378e+01, 3.06711407e+01, 2.42618294e+01, 2.38641472e+01, 3.03729191e+01, -9.68201828e+00, 7.53294449e+01, 7.87069321e+01, 2.75588818e+01, 2.78900852e+01, 3.75474434e+01, 4.24439888e+01, -1.14254990e+01, 7.29811707e+01, 4.03668137e+01, 5.20513992e+01, 5.60344353e+01, 2.35280933e+01, 3.67349663e+01, 4.67379417e+01, 1.41012440e+01, 3.34936371e+01, 2.08271389e+01, 4.84150934e+00, 3.37791214e+01, 4.39901619e+01, 2.00699883e+01, 6.26974869e+01, 7.41782951e+00, 4.46643982e+01, -1.23909988e+01, -2.05013676e+01]], dtype=float32) - s_2024_25_daily(chain, draw, days_2024_25)float3267.16 67.16 67.16 ... -20.5 -20.5
array([[[ 67.158226 , 67.158226 , 67.158226 , ..., 67.158226 , 67.158226 , 67.158226 ], [ 38.49154 , 38.49154 , 38.49154 , ..., 38.49154 , 38.49154 , 38.49154 ], [ 3.4514854, 3.4514854, 3.4514854, ..., 3.4514854, 3.4514854, 3.4514854], ..., [ 44.6644 , 44.6644 , 44.6644 , ..., 44.6644 , 44.6644 , 44.6644 ], [-12.390999 , -12.390999 , -12.390999 , ..., -12.390999 , -12.390999 , -12.390999 ], [-20.501368 , -20.501368 , -20.501368 , ..., -20.501368 , -20.501368 , -20.501368 ]]], dtype=float32) - s_season(chain, draw, season)float3260.07 65.8 67.16 ... 22.06 -20.5
array([[[ 60.07309 , 65.80169 , 67.158226 ], [ 41.85238 , 126.863716 , 38.49154 ], [ -1.3848752, 19.864319 , 3.4514854], ..., [ 20.63952 , 12.158056 , 44.6644 ], [ -7.601713 , -8.761094 , -12.390999 ], [ 21.276993 , 22.055552 , -20.501368 ]]], dtype=float32) - s_season_mu(chain, draw)float3257.93 63.59 22.28 ... -9.335 22.04
array([[ 57.933823 , 63.588825 , 22.27723 , 19.388239 , 39.144314 , 51.298958 , 48.889465 , 36.32928 , 43.061745 , 6.9098773 , 12.626576 , 82.69222 , 3.3876114 , 23.303667 , 44.09285 , 52.335815 , 46.078617 , 22.32155 , -0.1357742 , 14.990061 , 37.700348 , 45.8336 , 25.492899 , 37.54057 , 37.03412 , 48.05488 , 48.56871 , 26.511244 , 19.571564 , 34.23308 , 3.5300171 , 69.23447 , 6.349827 , 42.161446 , 36.653988 , 39.62202 , 53.732513 , 48.01975 , 15.025816 , 37.92989 , 18.152716 , 40.82066 , 84.73073 , 67.188614 , 31.697098 , 21.268578 , 36.248817 , 21.967564 , 41.567516 , 19.25661 , 33.92661 , 2.1764693 , 26.0009 , 26.74882 , 25.61701 , 63.193317 , 24.372849 , 11.804915 , 67.0114 , 13.907568 , 29.27315 , 26.347704 , 24.468893 , 18.45601 , 33.504253 , 66.30795 , 13.621337 , 31.669044 , 50.708923 , 63.980377 , 31.04003 , 26.145693 , 53.623974 , 45.93396 , 32.264847 , 35.617023 , 43.14996 , 20.187496 , -12.324255 , 26.76448 , ... 29.966387 , 51.164898 , 37.543106 , 11.080273 , 74.69372 , 32.738686 , 23.8907 , 37.784836 , 24.17186 , 60.811962 , 44.631733 , 42.96626 , 29.240833 , 6.4460497 , 28.081985 , 35.028717 , 46.509556 , 27.119267 , 21.196768 , 79.97799 , 41.31987 , 63.321133 , 35.150414 , 34.06843 , 18.337536 , 37.548615 , 25.685705 , 18.666796 , -17.111149 , 14.515721 , 38.58255 , 48.578133 , 36.569645 , 4.6889844 , 21.159267 , 12.794802 , 42.391743 , 66.14972 , 62.918995 , 11.329475 , 55.527348 , 31.005627 , 28.667152 , 36.481857 , 40.400524 , 29.192497 , 37.820396 , 32.2978 , 27.903467 , 16.387009 , 68.5745 , 63.599003 , 22.188787 , 28.44715 , 31.784077 , 41.764343 , 4.9705086 , 59.661587 , 30.930182 , 43.3485 , 50.06186 , 36.39565 , 34.4555 , 44.46824 , 26.014427 , 34.40511 , 39.0385 , 13.4535885 , 28.2694 , 29.112022 , 21.177666 , 62.742634 , 25.763916 , 12.328635 , -9.334989 , 22.03638 ]], dtype=float32) - s_season_sigma(chain, draw)float326.571 31.3 16.83 ... 2.565 24.46
array([[ 6.571272 , 31.301113 , 16.832844 , 30.44924 , 7.372449 , 26.509514 , 21.826405 , 19.894869 , 5.386717 , 0.11350039, 10.917775 , 10.015256 , 9.597235 , 59.23932 , 3.2693706 , 3.130578 , 5.404288 , 12.552249 , 15.571629 , 23.82214 , 8.239241 , 50.329014 , 4.1831846 , 15.435032 , 81.2016 , 25.709919 , 43.303795 , 28.523436 , 31.109175 , 1.8933823 , 13.923569 , 19.238794 , 8.073965 , 15.899376 , 20.698156 , 9.844753 , 1.876499 , 24.040226 , 11.459095 , 20.619957 , 6.168646 , 23.005764 , 1.0966281 , 3.0939088 , 23.776928 , 22.776825 , 35.01209 , 12.763272 , 8.112765 , 14.978567 , 18.938036 , 4.2447042 , 10.4646845 , 20.161772 , 17.86315 , 9.88739 , 15.461504 , 23.755934 , 20.851318 , 19.901718 , 26.967901 , 21.785397 , 9.81996 , 15.418576 , 19.64457 , 2.3837636 , 26.34004 , 1.074178 , 17.109434 , 5.5968733 , 6.1672163 , 41.353325 , 9.037051 , 9.8172865 , 5.1772246 , 1.185646 , 4.682417 , 13.43685 , 5.8213406 , 25.192339 , 31.986576 , 5.8166018 , 1.7734975 , 27.480837 , 41.076183 , 13.30728 , 11.83197 , 11.00682 , 7.7119436 , 3.61902 , 17.557076 , 54.61159 , 8.6059675 , 19.125235 , 10.786152 , 23.556057 , 1.9843912 , 1.4395697 , 21.73229 , 15.154931 , ... 25.45567 , 15.165723 , 1.2828857 , 9.236279 , 22.825523 , 0.50321144, 3.5041387 , 18.790527 , 31.585314 , 1.7458459 , 15.063107 , 30.558231 , 16.045038 , 15.492642 , 30.82973 , 23.094072 , 25.380432 , 6.3373003 , 16.456038 , 9.04191 , 18.661528 , 4.7106457 , 5.907395 , 23.75064 , 18.744621 , 2.5035763 , 21.506937 , 19.7012 , 28.902775 , 1.8350278 , 44.005466 , 35.17791 , 25.318857 , 19.346226 , 3.078136 , 6.899595 , 15.93677 , 14.723756 , 2.9740005 , 29.819195 , 22.794575 , 15.153163 , 12.360502 , 11.465078 , 8.190876 , 25.730434 , 3.0539453 , 17.388025 , 24.176907 , 25.912035 , 6.7501307 , 8.501566 , 29.000353 , 30.053448 , 17.058025 , 22.725351 , 37.832294 , 40.15519 , 38.622734 , 44.394993 , 0.48206696, 33.412693 , 16.806118 , 41.80932 , 9.112853 , 21.70035 , 18.629923 , 2.2642286 , 10.810545 , 12.167045 , 9.912084 , 12.821872 , 1.0155696 , 11.890569 , 9.104201 , 20.478504 , 17.064007 , 17.06446 , 25.68594 , 8.476006 , 5.670337 , 18.830078 , 12.261229 , 19.101555 , 6.411193 , 12.199011 , 6.7728186 , 7.189224 , 6.06805 , 4.551783 , 1.2794781 , 11.097732 , 20.309942 , 2.5652459 , 24.457525 ]], dtype=float32)
- created_at :
- 2026-03-31T21:16:03.262947+00:00
- arviz_version :
- 0.23.4
- inference_library :
- numpyro
- inference_library_version :
- 0.20.1
<xarray.Dataset> Size: 3MB Dimensions: (chain: 1, draw: 500, season: 3, date_ranges_2022_23: 18, incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0: 0, date_ranges_2023_24: 18, incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty_dim_0: 0, date_ranges_2024_25: 17, incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0: 0, days_2022_23: 126, days_2023_24: 126, days_2024_25: 119, observation: 53) Coordinates: (12/13) * chain (chain) int64 8B 0 * draw (draw) int64 4kB 0 1 ... 498 499 * season (season) <U7 84B '2022/23' ..... * date_ranges_2022_23 (date_ranges_2022_23) <U21 2kB ... * incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0 (incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0) int64 0B ... * date_ranges_2023_24 (date_ranges_2023_24) <U21 2kB ... ... ... * date_ranges_2024_25 (date_ranges_2024_25) <U21 1kB ... * incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0 (incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0) int64 0B ... * days_2022_23 (days_2022_23) <U10 5kB '2022... * days_2023_24 (days_2023_24) <U10 5kB '2023... * days_2024_25 (days_2024_25) <U10 5kB '2024... * observation (observation) <U29 6kB '2022/... Data variables: (12/39) covariate_values_m_season (chain, draw, season) float32 6kB ... covariate_values_r_season (chain, draw, season) float32 6kB ... covariate_values_s_season (chain, draw, season) float32 6kB ... incidence_2022_23 (chain, draw, date_ranges_2022_23) float32 36kB ... incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty (chain, draw, incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0) float32 0B ... incidence_2023_24 (chain, draw, date_ranges_2023_24) float32 36kB ... ... ... s_2023_24_daily (chain, draw, days_2023_24) float32 252kB ... s_2024_25 (chain, draw) float32 2kB 67.... s_2024_25_daily (chain, draw, days_2024_25) float32 238kB ... s_season (chain, draw, season) float32 6kB ... s_season_mu (chain, draw) float32 2kB 57.... s_season_sigma (chain, draw) float32 2kB 6.5... Attributes: created_at: 2026-03-31T21:16:03.262947+00:00 arviz_version: 0.23.4 inference_library: numpyro inference_library_version: 0.20.1xarray.Dataset
In [12]:
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vaxflux_prior_idata.prior_observations
vaxflux_prior_idata.prior_observations
Out[12]:
| chain | draw | season | season_start_date | season_end_date | start_date | end_date | report_date | type | value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 2022/23 | 2022-10-03 | 2023-02-05 | 2022-11-14 | 2022-11-20 | 2022-11-20 | incidence | 0.020556 |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 2022/23 | 2022-10-03 | 2023-02-05 | 2022-10-31 | 2022-11-06 | 2022-11-06 | incidence | 0.016378 |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 2022/23 | 2022-10-03 | 2023-02-05 | 2022-12-19 | 2022-12-25 | 2022-12-25 | incidence | 0.019279 |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 2022/23 | 2022-10-03 | 2023-02-05 | 2023-01-16 | 2023-01-22 | 2023-01-22 | incidence | 0.010159 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 2022/23 | 2022-10-03 | 2023-02-05 | 2023-01-02 | 2023-01-08 | 2023-01-08 | incidence | 0.014722 |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| 26495 | 0 | 499 | 2024/25 | 2024-10-07 | 2025-02-02 | 2024-12-23 | 2024-12-29 | 2024-12-29 | incidence | 0.002985 |
| 26496 | 0 | 499 | 2024/25 | 2024-10-07 | 2025-02-02 | 2024-11-04 | 2024-11-10 | 2024-11-10 | incidence | 0.010395 |
| 26497 | 0 | 499 | 2024/25 | 2024-10-07 | 2025-02-02 | 2024-12-16 | 2024-12-22 | 2024-12-22 | incidence | 0.003640 |
| 26498 | 0 | 499 | 2024/25 | 2024-10-07 | 2025-02-02 | 2024-10-14 | 2024-10-20 | 2024-10-20 | incidence | 0.015006 |
| 26499 | 0 | 499 | 2024/25 | 2024-10-07 | 2025-02-02 | 2024-10-28 | 2024-11-03 | 2024-11-03 | incidence | 0.011937 |
26500 rows × 10 columns
In [13]:
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arviz_plots.plot_dist(
vaxflux_prior_idata,
group="prior",
var_names=[
"m_season",
"m_season_mu",
"m_season_sigma",
"r_season",
"r_season_mu",
"r_season_sigma",
"s_season",
"s_season_mu",
"s_season_sigma",
"observation_sigma",
],
pc_kwargs={"col_wrap": 1},
)
plt.show()
arviz_plots.plot_dist(
vaxflux_prior_idata,
group="prior",
var_names=[
"m_season",
"m_season_mu",
"m_season_sigma",
"r_season",
"r_season_mu",
"r_season_sigma",
"s_season",
"s_season_mu",
"s_season_sigma",
"observation_sigma",
],
pc_kwargs={"col_wrap": 1},
)
plt.show()
In [14]:
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vaxflux_prior_idata.plot_prior_predictive()
plt.show()
vaxflux_prior_idata.plot_prior_predictive()
plt.show()
In [15]:
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vaxflux_prior_idata.plot_prior_predictive(predictive="observation")
plt.show()
vaxflux_prior_idata.plot_prior_predictive(predictive="observation")
plt.show()
In [16]:
Copied!
vaxflux_prior_idata.prior_prevalence_scenarios(
{"low": (0.025, 0.25), "typical": (0.25, 0.75), "high": (0.75, 0.975)}
)
vaxflux_prior_idata.prior_prevalence_scenarios(
{"low": (0.025, 0.25), "typical": (0.25, 0.75), "high": (0.75, 0.975)}
)
Out[16]:
| season | scenario | low_quantile | high_quantile | low_prevalence | high_prevalence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2022/23 | low | 0.025 | 0.250 | 0.004458 | 0.159307 |
| 1 | 2023/24 | low | 0.025 | 0.250 | 0.001449 | 0.156781 |
| 2 | 2024/25 | low | 0.025 | 0.250 | 0.007901 | 0.134623 |
| 3 | 2022/23 | typical | 0.250 | 0.750 | 0.159307 | 0.517974 |
| 4 | 2023/24 | typical | 0.250 | 0.750 | 0.156781 | 0.504385 |
| 5 | 2024/25 | typical | 0.250 | 0.750 | 0.134623 | 0.498256 |
| 6 | 2022/23 | high | 0.750 | 0.975 | 0.517974 | 0.828640 |
| 7 | 2023/24 | high | 0.750 | 0.975 | 0.504385 | 0.800235 |
| 8 | 2024/25 | high | 0.750 | 0.975 | 0.498256 | 0.830469 |
In [17]:
Copied!
warmup = 250
samples = 250
chains = 4
vaxflux_idata = model.sample(
warmup=warmup, samples=samples, prior_samples=None, chains=chains
)
vaxflux_idata
warmup = 250
samples = 250
chains = 4
vaxflux_idata = model.sample(
warmup=warmup, samples=samples, prior_samples=None, chains=chains
)
vaxflux_idata
0%| | 0/500 [00:00<?, ?it/s]
0%| | 0/500 [00:00<?, ?it/s]
0%| | 0/500 [00:00<?, ?it/s]
0%| | 0/500 [00:00<?, ?it/s]
Out[17]:
arviz.InferenceData
-
- chain: 4
- draw: 250
- season: 3
- date_ranges_2022_23: 18
- date_ranges_2023_24: 18
- date_ranges_2024_25: 17
- days_2022_23: 126
- days_2023_24: 126
- days_2024_25: 119
- observation: 53
- chain(chain)int640 1 2 3
array([0, 1, 2, 3])
- draw(draw)int640 1 2 3 4 5 ... 245 246 247 248 249
array([ 0, 1, 2, ..., 247, 248, 249])
- season(season)<U7'2022/23' '2023/24' '2024/25'
array(['2022/23', '2023/24', '2024/25'], dtype='<U7')
- date_ranges_2022_23(date_ranges_2022_23)<U21'2022-11-14_2022-11-20' ... '202...
array(['2022-11-14_2022-11-20', '2022-10-31_2022-11-06', '2022-12-19_2022-12-25', '2023-01-16_2023-01-22', '2023-01-02_2023-01-08', '2022-11-21_2022-11-27', '2022-12-05_2022-12-11', '2022-10-17_2022-10-23', '2022-10-24_2022-10-30', '2022-10-10_2022-10-16', '2023-01-09_2023-01-15', '2022-12-26_2023-01-01', '2023-01-23_2023-01-29', '2022-10-03_2022-10-09', '2023-01-30_2023-02-05', '2022-12-12_2022-12-18', '2022-11-28_2022-12-04', '2022-11-07_2022-11-13'], dtype='<U21') - date_ranges_2023_24(date_ranges_2023_24)<U21'2023-12-25_2023-12-31' ... '202...
array(['2023-12-25_2023-12-31', '2023-11-13_2023-11-19', '2023-10-09_2023-10-15', '2023-10-02_2023-10-08', '2023-10-30_2023-11-05', '2024-01-01_2024-01-07', '2023-11-20_2023-11-26', '2023-12-18_2023-12-24', '2024-01-29_2024-02-04', '2023-10-16_2023-10-22', '2024-01-15_2024-01-21', '2023-11-06_2023-11-12', '2023-12-11_2023-12-17', '2023-10-23_2023-10-29', '2023-11-27_2023-12-03', '2023-12-04_2023-12-10', '2024-01-08_2024-01-14', '2024-01-22_2024-01-28'], dtype='<U21') - date_ranges_2024_25(date_ranges_2024_25)<U21'2024-12-30_2025-01-05' ... '202...
array(['2024-12-30_2025-01-05', '2024-10-21_2024-10-27', '2024-11-11_2024-11-17', '2024-12-09_2024-12-15', '2024-11-25_2024-12-01', '2024-12-02_2024-12-08', '2025-01-06_2025-01-12', '2024-10-07_2024-10-13', '2025-01-27_2025-02-02', '2025-01-20_2025-01-26', '2025-01-13_2025-01-19', '2024-11-18_2024-11-24', '2024-12-23_2024-12-29', '2024-11-04_2024-11-10', '2024-12-16_2024-12-22', '2024-10-14_2024-10-20', '2024-10-28_2024-11-03'], dtype='<U21') - days_2022_23(days_2022_23)<U10'2022-10-03' ... '2023-02-05'
array(['2022-10-03', '2022-10-04', '2022-10-05', '2022-10-06', '2022-10-07', '2022-10-08', '2022-10-09', '2022-10-10', '2022-10-11', '2022-10-12', '2022-10-13', '2022-10-14', '2022-10-15', '2022-10-16', '2022-10-17', '2022-10-18', '2022-10-19', '2022-10-20', '2022-10-21', '2022-10-22', '2022-10-23', '2022-10-24', '2022-10-25', '2022-10-26', '2022-10-27', '2022-10-28', '2022-10-29', '2022-10-30', '2022-10-31', '2022-11-01', '2022-11-02', '2022-11-03', '2022-11-04', '2022-11-05', '2022-11-06', '2022-11-07', '2022-11-08', '2022-11-09', '2022-11-10', '2022-11-11', '2022-11-12', '2022-11-13', '2022-11-14', '2022-11-15', '2022-11-16', '2022-11-17', '2022-11-18', '2022-11-19', '2022-11-20', '2022-11-21', '2022-11-22', '2022-11-23', '2022-11-24', '2022-11-25', '2022-11-26', '2022-11-27', '2022-11-28', '2022-11-29', '2022-11-30', '2022-12-01', '2022-12-02', '2022-12-03', '2022-12-04', '2022-12-05', '2022-12-06', '2022-12-07', '2022-12-08', '2022-12-09', '2022-12-10', '2022-12-11', '2022-12-12', '2022-12-13', '2022-12-14', '2022-12-15', '2022-12-16', '2022-12-17', '2022-12-18', '2022-12-19', '2022-12-20', '2022-12-21', '2022-12-22', '2022-12-23', '2022-12-24', '2022-12-25', '2022-12-26', '2022-12-27', '2022-12-28', '2022-12-29', '2022-12-30', '2022-12-31', '2023-01-01', '2023-01-02', '2023-01-03', '2023-01-04', '2023-01-05', '2023-01-06', '2023-01-07', '2023-01-08', '2023-01-09', '2023-01-10', '2023-01-11', '2023-01-12', '2023-01-13', '2023-01-14', '2023-01-15', '2023-01-16', '2023-01-17', '2023-01-18', '2023-01-19', '2023-01-20', '2023-01-21', '2023-01-22', '2023-01-23', '2023-01-24', '2023-01-25', '2023-01-26', '2023-01-27', '2023-01-28', '2023-01-29', '2023-01-30', '2023-01-31', '2023-02-01', '2023-02-02', '2023-02-03', '2023-02-04', '2023-02-05'], dtype='<U10') - days_2023_24(days_2023_24)<U10'2023-10-02' ... '2024-02-04'
array(['2023-10-02', '2023-10-03', '2023-10-04', '2023-10-05', '2023-10-06', '2023-10-07', '2023-10-08', '2023-10-09', '2023-10-10', '2023-10-11', '2023-10-12', '2023-10-13', '2023-10-14', '2023-10-15', '2023-10-16', '2023-10-17', '2023-10-18', '2023-10-19', '2023-10-20', '2023-10-21', '2023-10-22', '2023-10-23', '2023-10-24', '2023-10-25', '2023-10-26', '2023-10-27', '2023-10-28', '2023-10-29', '2023-10-30', '2023-10-31', '2023-11-01', '2023-11-02', '2023-11-03', '2023-11-04', '2023-11-05', '2023-11-06', '2023-11-07', '2023-11-08', '2023-11-09', '2023-11-10', '2023-11-11', '2023-11-12', '2023-11-13', '2023-11-14', '2023-11-15', '2023-11-16', '2023-11-17', '2023-11-18', '2023-11-19', '2023-11-20', '2023-11-21', '2023-11-22', '2023-11-23', '2023-11-24', '2023-11-25', '2023-11-26', '2023-11-27', '2023-11-28', '2023-11-29', '2023-11-30', '2023-12-01', '2023-12-02', '2023-12-03', '2023-12-04', '2023-12-05', '2023-12-06', '2023-12-07', '2023-12-08', '2023-12-09', '2023-12-10', '2023-12-11', '2023-12-12', '2023-12-13', '2023-12-14', '2023-12-15', '2023-12-16', '2023-12-17', '2023-12-18', '2023-12-19', '2023-12-20', '2023-12-21', '2023-12-22', '2023-12-23', '2023-12-24', '2023-12-25', '2023-12-26', '2023-12-27', '2023-12-28', '2023-12-29', '2023-12-30', '2023-12-31', '2024-01-01', '2024-01-02', '2024-01-03', '2024-01-04', '2024-01-05', '2024-01-06', '2024-01-07', '2024-01-08', '2024-01-09', '2024-01-10', '2024-01-11', '2024-01-12', '2024-01-13', '2024-01-14', '2024-01-15', '2024-01-16', '2024-01-17', '2024-01-18', '2024-01-19', '2024-01-20', '2024-01-21', '2024-01-22', '2024-01-23', '2024-01-24', '2024-01-25', '2024-01-26', '2024-01-27', '2024-01-28', '2024-01-29', '2024-01-30', '2024-01-31', '2024-02-01', '2024-02-02', '2024-02-03', '2024-02-04'], dtype='<U10') - days_2024_25(days_2024_25)<U10'2024-10-07' ... '2025-02-02'
array(['2024-10-07', '2024-10-08', '2024-10-09', '2024-10-10', '2024-10-11', '2024-10-12', '2024-10-13', '2024-10-14', '2024-10-15', '2024-10-16', '2024-10-17', '2024-10-18', '2024-10-19', '2024-10-20', '2024-10-21', '2024-10-22', '2024-10-23', '2024-10-24', '2024-10-25', '2024-10-26', '2024-10-27', '2024-10-28', '2024-10-29', '2024-10-30', '2024-10-31', '2024-11-01', '2024-11-02', '2024-11-03', '2024-11-04', '2024-11-05', '2024-11-06', '2024-11-07', '2024-11-08', '2024-11-09', '2024-11-10', '2024-11-11', '2024-11-12', '2024-11-13', '2024-11-14', '2024-11-15', '2024-11-16', '2024-11-17', '2024-11-18', '2024-11-19', '2024-11-20', '2024-11-21', '2024-11-22', '2024-11-23', '2024-11-24', '2024-11-25', '2024-11-26', '2024-11-27', '2024-11-28', '2024-11-29', '2024-11-30', '2024-12-01', '2024-12-02', '2024-12-03', '2024-12-04', '2024-12-05', '2024-12-06', '2024-12-07', '2024-12-08', '2024-12-09', '2024-12-10', '2024-12-11', '2024-12-12', '2024-12-13', '2024-12-14', '2024-12-15', '2024-12-16', '2024-12-17', '2024-12-18', '2024-12-19', '2024-12-20', '2024-12-21', '2024-12-22', '2024-12-23', '2024-12-24', '2024-12-25', '2024-12-26', '2024-12-27', '2024-12-28', '2024-12-29', '2024-12-30', '2024-12-31', '2025-01-01', '2025-01-02', '2025-01-03', '2025-01-04', '2025-01-05', '2025-01-06', '2025-01-07', '2025-01-08', '2025-01-09', '2025-01-10', '2025-01-11', '2025-01-12', '2025-01-13', '2025-01-14', '2025-01-15', '2025-01-16', '2025-01-17', '2025-01-18', '2025-01-19', '2025-01-20', '2025-01-21', '2025-01-22', '2025-01-23', '2025-01-24', '2025-01-25', '2025-01-26', '2025-01-27', '2025-01-28', '2025-01-29', '2025-01-30', '2025-01-31', '2025-02-01', '2025-02-02'], dtype='<U10') - observation(observation)<U29'2022/23|2022-10-03|2022-10-09' ...
array(['2022/23|2022-10-03|2022-10-09', '2022/23|2022-10-10|2022-10-16', '2022/23|2022-10-17|2022-10-23', '2022/23|2022-10-24|2022-10-30', '2022/23|2022-10-31|2022-11-06', '2022/23|2022-11-07|2022-11-13', '2022/23|2022-11-14|2022-11-20', '2022/23|2022-11-21|2022-11-27', '2022/23|2022-11-28|2022-12-04', '2022/23|2022-12-05|2022-12-11', '2022/23|2022-12-12|2022-12-18', '2022/23|2022-12-19|2022-12-25', '2022/23|2022-12-26|2023-01-01', '2022/23|2023-01-02|2023-01-08', '2022/23|2023-01-09|2023-01-15', '2022/23|2023-01-16|2023-01-22', '2022/23|2023-01-23|2023-01-29', '2022/23|2023-01-30|2023-02-05', '2023/24|2023-10-02|2023-10-08', '2023/24|2023-10-09|2023-10-15', '2023/24|2023-10-16|2023-10-22', '2023/24|2023-10-23|2023-10-29', '2023/24|2023-10-30|2023-11-05', '2023/24|2023-11-06|2023-11-12', '2023/24|2023-11-13|2023-11-19', '2023/24|2023-11-20|2023-11-26', '2023/24|2023-11-27|2023-12-03', '2023/24|2023-12-04|2023-12-10', '2023/24|2023-12-11|2023-12-17', '2023/24|2023-12-18|2023-12-24', '2023/24|2023-12-25|2023-12-31', '2023/24|2024-01-01|2024-01-07', '2023/24|2024-01-08|2024-01-14', '2023/24|2024-01-15|2024-01-21', '2023/24|2024-01-22|2024-01-28', '2023/24|2024-01-29|2024-02-04', '2024/25|2024-10-07|2024-10-13', '2024/25|2024-10-14|2024-10-20', '2024/25|2024-10-21|2024-10-27', '2024/25|2024-10-28|2024-11-03', '2024/25|2024-11-04|2024-11-10', '2024/25|2024-11-11|2024-11-17', '2024/25|2024-11-18|2024-11-24', '2024/25|2024-11-25|2024-12-01', '2024/25|2024-12-02|2024-12-08', '2024/25|2024-12-09|2024-12-15', '2024/25|2024-12-16|2024-12-22', '2024/25|2024-12-23|2024-12-29', '2024/25|2024-12-30|2025-01-05', '2024/25|2025-01-06|2025-01-12', '2024/25|2025-01-13|2025-01-19', '2024/25|2025-01-20|2025-01-26', '2024/25|2025-01-27|2025-02-02'], dtype='<U29')
- covariate_values_m_season(chain, draw, season)float32-0.4974 -0.6507 ... -0.6031 -0.4785
array([[[-0.49738163, -0.6506679 , -0.4685821 ], [-0.47855425, -0.6611174 , -0.48383686], [-0.51753247, -0.63674974, -0.5431301 ], ..., [-0.57851636, -0.7977064 , -0.3846375 ], [-0.54014975, -0.61614513, -0.46096885], [-0.5804585 , -0.60568917, -0.41340694]], [[-0.5477426 , -0.5382099 , -0.44042572], [-0.43735296, -0.6461379 , -0.51044434], [-0.31916413, -0.7628142 , -0.41457978], ..., [-0.6383253 , -0.6386362 , -0.5166232 ], [-0.6085852 , -0.68457097, -0.540831 ], [-0.45805156, -0.60616595, -0.3585802 ]], [[-0.54605246, -0.75272435, -0.6145763 ], [-0.54605246, -0.75272435, -0.6145763 ], [-0.54605246, -0.75272435, -0.6145763 ], ..., [-0.49464446, -0.5753273 , -0.52599823], [-0.49464446, -0.5753273 , -0.52599823], [-0.49464446, -0.5753273 , -0.52599823]], [[-0.3229709 , -0.7217566 , -0.5091384 ], [-0.5713311 , -0.5524792 , -0.46915114], [-0.42704353, -0.77889746, -0.5099993 ], ..., [-0.5601264 , -0.6155328 , -0.49187234], [-0.5602284 , -0.60508925, -0.48111704], [-0.55177057, -0.603126 , -0.4785126 ]]], dtype=float32) - covariate_values_r_season(chain, draw, season)float32-3.256 -3.056 ... -3.09 -3.21
array([[[-3.2563078, -3.055761 , -3.3062248], [-3.2603617, -3.0570774, -3.2683883], [-3.2150767, -3.0377164, -3.2646267], ..., [-3.241156 , -3.0136378, -3.3616753], [-3.160643 , -3.0264823, -3.2895103], [-3.1458163, -3.1082044, -3.277445 ]], [[-3.2538817, -3.06992 , -3.2422552], [-3.2468655, -3.0361001, -3.3439522], [-3.3013194, -3.0108602, -3.414429 ], ..., [-3.0585692, -3.0355062, -3.211911 ], [-3.2216334, -3.0671165, -3.293545 ], [-3.2247634, -3.0788846, -3.321118 ]], [[-3.1564417, -3.0416837, -3.1655257], [-3.1564417, -3.0416837, -3.1655257], [-3.1564417, -3.0416837, -3.1655257], ..., [-3.2398367, -3.1344779, -3.2098413], [-3.2398367, -3.1344779, -3.2098413], [-3.2398367, -3.1344779, -3.2098413]], [[-3.3510995, -2.9613326, -3.3361442], [-3.2115428, -3.1790419, -3.3658614], [-3.2566326, -2.9913137, -3.2232106], ..., [-3.200091 , -3.0796533, -3.248317 ], [-3.1963549, -3.072798 , -3.2226765], [-3.1875749, -3.0895903, -3.209695 ]]], dtype=float32) - covariate_values_s_season(chain, draw, season)float3240.13 43.52 42.03 ... 43.02 42.8
array([[[40.13426 , 43.519943, 42.031982], [40.92761 , 42.169876, 43.125298], [37.837856, 43.91708 , 40.95365 ], ..., [43.58215 , 38.90656 , 44.499683], [39.303505, 40.104874, 42.877563], [39.446545, 39.671116, 42.361614]], [[40.923386, 42.976456, 37.42025 ], [39.567352, 44.704712, 38.093327], [35.875416, 38.719666, 44.8464 ], ..., [41.696404, 43.156784, 41.737873], [42.03409 , 42.45108 , 42.03881 ], [41.60912 , 42.837303, 42.256924]], [[41.39877 , 41.900112, 41.818825], [41.39877 , 41.900112, 41.818825], [41.39877 , 41.900112, 41.818825], ..., [41.50108 , 42.338673, 40.29984 ], [41.50108 , 42.338673, 40.29984 ], [41.50108 , 42.338673, 40.29984 ]], [[39.8862 , 44.1839 , 45.33814 ], [36.65889 , 41.935013, 39.69982 ], [41.534893, 42.06665 , 45.347794], ..., [41.95802 , 43.271873, 42.275433], [42.018967, 43.327377, 42.101418], [42.78797 , 43.023186, 42.801643]]], dtype=float32) - incidence_2022_23(chain, draw, date_ranges_2022_23)float320.02524 0.02469 ... 0.02362 0.0261
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array([[[0.01337156, 0.02013451, 0.02452599, ..., 0.01817502, 0.01781074, 0.02216012], [0.01355433, 0.02001933, 0.02512912, ..., 0.01867808, 0.01748167, 0.0222942 ], [0.01232319, 0.02005403, 0.02445844, ..., 0.01725143, 0.01764236, 0.02214119], ..., [0.01491069, 0.01972998, 0.02424038, ..., 0.01942476, 0.01752046, 0.02169988], [0.01369539, 0.02015129, 0.02498547, ..., 0.01868538, 0.0177027 , 0.02232468], [0.01389076, 0.02106619, 0.02606801, ..., 0.01913856, 0.01848892, 0.02334272]], [[0.01180426, 0.02291314, 0.02673703, ..., 0.01710097, 0.02034889, 0.02499062], [0.01189217, 0.02021773, 0.02314041, ..., 0.01619996, 0.01828352, 0.02177074], [0.01465465, 0.01868768, 0.02258935, ..., 0.01860677, 0.01676045, 0.02039146], ... [0.01202311, 0.0211806 , 0.02613879, ..., 0.01746226, 0.0184359 , 0.02356447], [0.01202311, 0.0211806 , 0.02613879, ..., 0.01746226, 0.0184359 , 0.02356447], [0.01202311, 0.0211806 , 0.02613879, ..., 0.01746226, 0.0184359 , 0.02356447]], [[0.01410453, 0.01830225, 0.02294874, ..., 0.01850556, 0.01611653, 0.02028669], [0.01271932, 0.02000519, 0.02320744, ..., 0.01698724, 0.01806432, 0.02160624], [0.01406058, 0.0193067 , 0.02556003, ..., 0.01957837, 0.01652294, 0.02192229], ..., [0.01313996, 0.02044266, 0.02557632, ..., 0.01841411, 0.01782095, 0.02277462], [0.0130825 , 0.02093484, 0.02641956, ..., 0.01863315, 0.01814439, 0.02342878], [0.01332133, 0.02083478, 0.02673461, ..., 0.01903263, 0.01794471, 0.02345868]]], dtype=float32) - m_2022_23(chain, draw)float32-0.4974 -0.4786 ... -0.5602 -0.5518
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array([[[-0.6506679 , -0.6506679 , -0.6506679 , ..., -0.6506679 , -0.6506679 , -0.6506679 ], [-0.6611174 , -0.6611174 , -0.6611174 , ..., -0.6611174 , -0.6611174 , -0.6611174 ], [-0.63674974, -0.63674974, -0.63674974, ..., -0.63674974, -0.63674974, -0.63674974], ..., [-0.7977064 , -0.7977064 , -0.7977064 , ..., -0.7977064 , -0.7977064 , -0.7977064 ], [-0.61614513, -0.61614513, -0.61614513, ..., -0.61614513, -0.61614513, -0.61614513], [-0.60568917, -0.60568917, -0.60568917, ..., -0.60568917, -0.60568917, -0.60568917]], [[-0.5382099 , -0.5382099 , -0.5382099 , ..., -0.5382099 , -0.5382099 , -0.5382099 ], [-0.6461379 , -0.6461379 , -0.6461379 , ..., -0.6461379 , -0.6461379 , -0.6461379 ], [-0.7628142 , -0.7628142 , -0.7628142 , ..., -0.7628142 , -0.7628142 , -0.7628142 ], ... [-0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , ..., -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 ], [-0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , ..., -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 ], [-0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , ..., -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 ]], [[-0.7217566 , -0.7217566 , -0.7217566 , ..., -0.7217566 , -0.7217566 , -0.7217566 ], [-0.5524792 , -0.5524792 , -0.5524792 , ..., -0.5524792 , -0.5524792 , -0.5524792 ], [-0.77889746, -0.77889746, -0.77889746, ..., -0.77889746, -0.77889746, -0.77889746], ..., [-0.6155328 , -0.6155328 , -0.6155328 , ..., -0.6155328 , -0.6155328 , -0.6155328 ], [-0.60508925, -0.60508925, -0.60508925, ..., -0.60508925, -0.60508925, -0.60508925], [-0.603126 , -0.603126 , -0.603126 , ..., -0.603126 , -0.603126 , -0.603126 ]]], dtype=float32) - m_2024_25(chain, draw)float32-0.4686 -0.4838 ... -0.4811 -0.4785
array([[-0.4685821 , -0.48383686, -0.5431301 , -0.510751 , -0.5558118 , -0.5499654 , -0.48492685, -0.41701752, -0.4627414 , -0.5417757 , -0.5585559 , -0.50332373, -0.5335061 , -0.5225483 , -0.55315274, -0.55315274, -0.5089273 , -0.47833505, -0.60100806, -0.52706844, -0.52472067, -0.63094026, -0.4750478 , -0.57636297, -0.57636297, -0.5300387 , -0.5313156 , -0.47130623, -0.50801176, -0.6247171 , -0.6041693 , -0.6224765 , -0.45419082, -0.6713474 , -0.4525221 , -0.5740198 , -0.34588686, -0.35824284, -0.5291692 , -0.48759717, -0.5000363 , -0.51193064, -0.5360789 , -0.5001096 , -0.49357536, -0.6571627 , -0.6839548 , -0.42086005, -0.6269 , -0.4837202 , -0.48100108, -0.5551631 , -0.40770406, -0.40770406, -0.46562764, -0.40134037, -0.45471838, -0.57761407, -0.5028555 , -0.44758803, -0.45261312, -0.4344314 , -0.48775464, -0.5716372 , -0.47833484, -0.37466004, -0.58983827, -0.36504868, -0.44841695, -0.43324935, -0.530172 , -0.5406369 , -0.51669836, -0.5103756 , -0.54476595, -0.53223586, -0.5296823 , -0.46862602, -0.50403374, -0.57935387, -0.5537838 , -0.48051044, -0.46833995, -0.46760815, -0.5118345 , -0.5580498 , -0.57251716, -0.43108693, -0.32992402, -0.44063944, -0.50896037, -0.6514574 , -0.63041854, -0.45713887, -0.43551296, -0.43551296, -0.43551296, -0.52619666, -0.3834546 , -0.41562775, ... -0.49511346, -0.51193357, -0.5562741 , -0.53170466, -0.67776036, -0.5735382 , -0.48321608, -0.4731656 , -0.5709449 , -0.4834693 , -0.46145976, -0.51482266, -0.4326178 , -0.48797995, -0.55124265, -0.52113473, -0.37590572, -0.53413874, -0.4505815 , -0.41343567, -0.4512725 , -0.49231648, -0.43256402, -0.45579708, -0.42393088, -0.4261084 , -0.611541 , -0.4720149 , -0.48543003, -0.6012716 , -0.4480487 , -0.47272685, -0.5676925 , -0.54185843, -0.4934639 , -0.523233 , -0.51575124, -0.57270217, -0.5178252 , -0.43402344, -0.5424217 , -0.52974653, -0.46245554, -0.44963783, -0.48459458, -0.49211463, -0.4590027 , -0.4264555 , -0.3940025 , -0.5568508 , -0.4483293 , -0.34200174, -0.39724654, -0.47758934, -0.44707352, -0.33530635, -0.28240108, -0.58919555, -0.566521 , -0.49747995, -0.5733044 , -0.3529668 , -0.4834225 , -0.40417272, -0.56207424, -0.49030253, -0.51972884, -0.53923106, -0.55129266, -0.48938096, -0.48284438, -0.3851985 , -0.51251477, -0.6260978 , -0.43026972, -0.4754395 , -0.47912595, -0.37339437, -0.56777847, -0.5362858 , -0.41871262, -0.5096803 , -0.3911086 , -0.5257093 , -0.5654252 , -0.47511086, -0.52456003, -0.5662454 , -0.4532373 , -0.43374854, -0.5185857 , -0.4755472 , -0.49187234, -0.48111704, -0.4785126 ]], dtype=float32) - m_2024_25_daily(chain, draw, days_2024_25)float32-0.4686 -0.4686 ... -0.4785 -0.4785
array([[[-0.4685821 , -0.4685821 , -0.4685821 , ..., -0.4685821 , -0.4685821 , -0.4685821 ], [-0.48383686, -0.48383686, -0.48383686, ..., -0.48383686, -0.48383686, -0.48383686], [-0.5431301 , -0.5431301 , -0.5431301 , ..., -0.5431301 , -0.5431301 , -0.5431301 ], ..., [-0.3846375 , -0.3846375 , -0.3846375 , ..., -0.3846375 , -0.3846375 , -0.3846375 ], [-0.46096885, -0.46096885, -0.46096885, ..., -0.46096885, -0.46096885, -0.46096885], [-0.41340694, -0.41340694, -0.41340694, ..., -0.41340694, -0.41340694, -0.41340694]], [[-0.44042572, -0.44042572, -0.44042572, ..., -0.44042572, -0.44042572, -0.44042572], [-0.51044434, -0.51044434, -0.51044434, ..., -0.51044434, -0.51044434, -0.51044434], [-0.41457978, -0.41457978, -0.41457978, ..., -0.41457978, -0.41457978, -0.41457978], ... [-0.52599823, -0.52599823, -0.52599823, ..., -0.52599823, -0.52599823, -0.52599823], [-0.52599823, -0.52599823, -0.52599823, ..., -0.52599823, -0.52599823, -0.52599823], [-0.52599823, -0.52599823, -0.52599823, ..., -0.52599823, -0.52599823, -0.52599823]], [[-0.5091384 , -0.5091384 , -0.5091384 , ..., -0.5091384 , -0.5091384 , -0.5091384 ], [-0.46915114, -0.46915114, -0.46915114, ..., -0.46915114, -0.46915114, -0.46915114], [-0.5099993 , -0.5099993 , -0.5099993 , ..., -0.5099993 , -0.5099993 , -0.5099993 ], ..., [-0.49187234, -0.49187234, -0.49187234, ..., -0.49187234, -0.49187234, -0.49187234], [-0.48111704, -0.48111704, -0.48111704, ..., -0.48111704, -0.48111704, -0.48111704], [-0.4785126 , -0.4785126 , -0.4785126 , ..., -0.4785126 , -0.4785126 , -0.4785126 ]]], dtype=float32) - m_season(chain, draw, season)float32-0.4974 -0.6507 ... -0.6031 -0.4785
array([[[-0.49738163, -0.6506679 , -0.4685821 ], [-0.47855425, -0.6611174 , -0.48383686], [-0.51753247, -0.63674974, -0.5431301 ], ..., [-0.57851636, -0.7977064 , -0.3846375 ], [-0.54014975, -0.61614513, -0.46096885], [-0.5804585 , -0.60568917, -0.41340694]], [[-0.5477426 , -0.5382099 , -0.44042572], [-0.43735296, -0.6461379 , -0.51044434], [-0.31916413, -0.7628142 , -0.41457978], ..., [-0.6383253 , -0.6386362 , -0.5166232 ], [-0.6085852 , -0.68457097, -0.540831 ], [-0.45805156, -0.60616595, -0.3585802 ]], [[-0.54605246, -0.75272435, -0.6145763 ], [-0.54605246, -0.75272435, -0.6145763 ], [-0.54605246, -0.75272435, -0.6145763 ], ..., [-0.49464446, -0.5753273 , -0.52599823], [-0.49464446, -0.5753273 , -0.52599823], [-0.49464446, -0.5753273 , -0.52599823]], [[-0.3229709 , -0.7217566 , -0.5091384 ], [-0.5713311 , -0.5524792 , -0.46915114], [-0.42704353, -0.77889746, -0.5099993 ], ..., [-0.5601264 , -0.6155328 , -0.49187234], [-0.5602284 , -0.60508925, -0.48111704], [-0.55177057, -0.603126 , -0.4785126 ]]], dtype=float32) - m_season_mu(chain, draw)float32-0.5551 -0.5607 ... -0.3961 -0.3709
array([[-0.55512816, -0.56072754, -0.6473218 , -0.51337737, -0.6453868 , -0.58585453, -0.548584 , -0.60733587, -0.44407123, -0.7388568 , -0.6661373 , -0.38407877, -0.5665818 , -0.57066625, -0.53727424, -0.53727424, -0.5700777 , -0.5566097 , -0.59564435, -0.59750074, -0.57061696, -0.6252787 , -0.52311015, -0.58689135, -0.58689135, -0.64204043, -0.6386661 , -0.57673347, -0.5061263 , -0.5860155 , -0.54665923, -0.48635235, -0.44491646, -0.5750868 , -0.5913942 , -0.520477 , -0.3678178 , -0.5499999 , -0.5889887 , -0.47356057, -0.5062861 , -0.4821479 , -0.57978445, -0.53143203, -0.49477807, -0.7598603 , -0.6806318 , -0.6308781 , -0.5645459 , -0.65554905, -0.6718467 , -0.47549734, -0.76210314, -0.76210314, -0.8588705 , -0.8456372 , -0.88741195, -0.6972298 , -0.56775963, -0.33765244, -0.3269678 , -0.51066685, -0.58048284, -0.63606066, -0.590945 , -0.4616723 , -0.65528506, -0.5367119 , -0.81116116, -0.80341643, -0.76639307, -0.40887597, -0.69570553, -0.5442014 , -0.6437281 , -0.6105774 , -0.64823824, -0.62953407, -0.52469945, -0.84109277, -0.7622015 , -0.2926649 , -0.30607653, -0.80684125, -0.77162796, -0.90209717, -0.42067075, -0.48506442, -0.483737 , -0.5029373 , -0.5501002 , -0.2962733 , -0.39229974, -0.556847 , -0.5423207 , -0.5423207 , -0.5423207 , -0.4728959 , -0.49577218, -0.60903054, ... -0.51662904, -0.6650975 , -0.57395494, -0.7323241 , -0.56283957, -0.68720376, -0.4446351 , -0.5807701 , -0.47319767, -0.6218497 , -0.5446452 , -0.612522 , -0.47715637, -0.5901969 , -0.67585963, -0.57514346, -0.40830714, -0.19771534, -0.21917972, -0.6150711 , -0.06803573, -0.02533315, -0.108996 , -0.73106414, 0.03242219, 0.05798032, -0.13644487, -0.4409713 , -0.53438693, -0.4916681 , -0.5872472 , -0.5984886 , -0.6143327 , -0.6483882 , -0.64212453, -0.51561296, -0.6507292 , -0.5208889 , -0.11850248, -0.5640541 , -0.48287934, -0.6159346 , -0.4385339 , -0.4511085 , -0.31660926, -0.29908726, -0.40520436, -0.1989797 , -0.4792287 , -0.36673018, -0.58859724, -0.5106362 , -0.40464684, -0.6576469 , -0.6650196 , -0.91277087, -0.9298748 , -0.37054878, -0.36761406, -0.6615132 , -0.5752523 , -0.49749443, -0.677797 , -0.47955847, -0.24395931, -0.5681252 , -0.57258624, -0.45579863, -0.55789334, -0.5869451 , -0.50985426, -0.52245945, -0.56896096, -0.577098 , -0.51167154, -0.46101424, -0.47918254, -0.5737969 , -0.55696255, -0.4965913 , -0.5173639 , -0.56201315, -0.59021336, -0.45959434, -0.48184007, -0.62142426, -0.4030792 , -0.537495 , -0.5902907 , -0.4364096 , -0.5697282 , -0.6093891 , -0.396352 , -0.39608926, -0.3709405 ]], dtype=float32) - m_season_sigma(chain, draw)float320.08591 0.09229 ... 0.2914 0.4418
array([[0.08591186, 0.09229183, 0.286967 , 0.22488643, 0.15634444, 0.10914432, 0.11854092, 0.1116796 , 0.21955137, 0.12496022, 0.18711965, 0.12868339, 0.05085634, 0.07963299, 0.1091958 , 0.1091958 , 0.15568319, 0.3807369 , 0.06973337, 0.05284045, 0.04457564, 0.05365331, 0.08597302, 0.1020309 , 0.1020309 , 0.17225942, 0.13867183, 0.13801408, 0.1141192 , 0.10106266, 0.09044756, 0.10679023, 0.05005224, 0.12847285, 0.11222661, 0.10447842, 0.37263444, 0.1297794 , 0.07872331, 0.12218414, 0.09802421, 0.12696432, 0.05296764, 0.26181254, 0.3334381 , 0.21550512, 0.51086456, 0.27188477, 0.17490828, 0.11566405, 0.16100979, 0.23579822, 0.91211766, 0.91211766, 0.61565447, 0.475819 , 0.29122576, 0.48074475, 0.28207773, 0.14324632, 0.11573952, 0.50560606, 0.08671938, 0.1068233 , 0.15994263, 0.11914032, 0.31716734, 0.27683172, 0.8219244 , 0.84028876, 0.50878465, 0.16996203, 0.21634595, 0.08181553, 0.17175625, 0.23807468, 0.21827847, 0.21103968, 0.12805447, 0.31906223, 0.87182856, 0.14734466, 0.16819428, 0.3565185 , 0.32302547, 0.43543893, 0.17825454, 0.6257789 , 0.11727116, 0.28326023, 0.08367413, 0.5328032 , 0.31213886, 0.11792589, 0.12156705, 0.12156705, 0.12156705, 0.05758824, 0.2633411 , 0.1865396 , ... 0.03136818, 0.20652665, 0.3728866 , 0.13377306, 0.11328326, 0.11742632, 0.19407825, 0.19837344, 0.17741898, 0.11831749, 0.16680409, 0.13024004, 0.17989096, 0.08702067, 0.2927238 , 0.06985372, 0.34433424, 0.3719219 , 0.34526923, 0.17577681, 0.51997674, 1.064453 , 0.6231183 , 0.10255404, 0.5527896 , 0.816903 , 0.7300899 , 0.18125914, 0.15309933, 0.23076515, 0.13221313, 0.12119868, 0.41816658, 0.11329072, 0.17108631, 0.13963616, 0.11010551, 0.20327272, 0.41313523, 0.28053048, 0.11811487, 0.18762639, 0.21484566, 0.15739396, 0.3486325 , 0.3673461 , 0.21863309, 0.39457557, 0.08776282, 0.8107178 , 0.11235625, 0.22584641, 0.06387404, 0.687131 , 0.79515386, 0.79016805, 0.3650673 , 0.14779195, 0.19637701, 0.2534141 , 0.5776137 , 0.27078572, 0.21152472, 0.19913869, 0.6736372 , 0.09612229, 0.06911291, 0.6773478 , 0.06581558, 0.05882452, 0.10762774, 0.1686108 , 0.03167363, 0.0456026 , 0.11701103, 0.04228163, 0.04725347, 0.27987498, 0.32845783, 0.10390878, 0.09945506, 0.18779467, 0.21960676, 0.11321641, 0.07597729, 0.22184414, 0.4832224 , 0.04306533, 0.13033214, 0.1202822 , 0.08024701, 0.10136695, 0.20456707, 0.2913507 , 0.44183064]], dtype=float32) - observation_mean(chain, draw, observation)float320.01589 0.01852 ... 0.005287
array([[[0.01588706, 0.0185173 , 0.02102098, ..., 0.00915746, 0.0074303 , 0.00596912], [0.01576706, 0.01840783, 0.020943 , ..., 0.00911455, 0.00732132, 0.00582063], [0.01666968, 0.01948369, 0.02211552, ..., 0.00818913, 0.00654747, 0.0051849 ], ..., [0.01387064, 0.01642753, 0.01897463, ..., 0.01065441, 0.00882403, 0.00723087], [0.01589905, 0.01899056, 0.02199966, ..., 0.00931945, 0.00753291, 0.00602691], [0.01543336, 0.01853039, 0.02156772, ..., 0.00936156, 0.00753206, 0.00599945]], [[0.01510987, 0.01767154, 0.02013592, ..., 0.00762296, 0.00601999, 0.00471396], [0.01672714, 0.01950706, 0.02214209, ..., 0.00819672, 0.00668751, 0.00540806], [0.01918834, 0.02178215, 0.02407684, ..., 0.0107842 , 0.00906922, 0.00754704], ... [0.01541647, 0.01813703, 0.02078508, ..., 0.00768855, 0.00603147, 0.00468794], [0.01541647, 0.01813703, 0.02078508, ..., 0.00768855, 0.00603147, 0.00468794], [0.01541647, 0.01813703, 0.02078508, ..., 0.00768855, 0.00603147, 0.00468794]], [[0.01741025, 0.01980062, 0.022005 , ..., 0.00997327, 0.00821028, 0.00668536], [0.01658358, 0.01931177, 0.02182134, ..., 0.00893164, 0.00735083, 0.00599391], [0.0160409 , 0.01878555, 0.02144297, ..., 0.00928368, 0.00737592, 0.00579585], ..., [0.01462002, 0.01742902, 0.02021708, ..., 0.00869168, 0.00692708, 0.00546582], [0.01459237, 0.01741956, 0.02023157, ..., 0.00850426, 0.00671879, 0.00525594], [0.01435478, 0.01722964, 0.02012437, ..., 0.00861257, 0.00678237, 0.00528741]]], dtype=float32) - observation_sigma(chain, draw)float320.0006909 0.0008226 ... 0.0008756
array([[0.00069091, 0.00082262, 0.00084423, 0.00076777, 0.00074788, 0.00076492, 0.00081302, 0.00086662, 0.00081182, 0.00075277, 0.0006863 , 0.00091965, 0.00093519, 0.00084479, 0.00086833, 0.00086833, 0.00084459, 0.00090753, 0.00074823, 0.00090167, 0.00093444, 0.00092977, 0.00084117, 0.00088789, 0.00088789, 0.0008611 , 0.0008085 , 0.0007901 , 0.00081446, 0.00093706, 0.00100882, 0.00082629, 0.00075275, 0.00078382, 0.00084663, 0.00102305, 0.00080315, 0.00074774, 0.00085882, 0.00079915, 0.00085258, 0.00076961, 0.00078892, 0.00092797, 0.00095496, 0.0009155 , 0.00078519, 0.00082521, 0.00079497, 0.00065656, 0.00068201, 0.00100889, 0.00076512, 0.00076512, 0.00080458, 0.000857 , 0.00089048, 0.00079644, 0.00075905, 0.00090494, 0.00090749, 0.00095713, 0.00084176, 0.00095229, 0.00070465, 0.00084526, 0.00092933, 0.00072369, 0.00094978, 0.00096747, 0.000951 , 0.0006934 , 0.00071944, 0.0009367 , 0.00080478, 0.00079616, 0.00077265, 0.00074761, 0.00070359, 0.00083741, 0.00076318, 0.00085731, 0.00088147, 0.00072145, 0.00073217, 0.00089462, 0.00074293, 0.00075408, 0.00096822, 0.00098963, 0.00100099, 0.00085251, 0.00083032, 0.00099397, 0.00102899, 0.00102899, 0.00102899, 0.00072884, 0.00085252, 0.0008724 , ... 0.00076261, 0.00076079, 0.00070673, 0.00089918, 0.00085362, 0.00069732, 0.00081326, 0.00085485, 0.00077576, 0.00084185, 0.00077728, 0.00086348, 0.00072616, 0.00075627, 0.00090517, 0.00063973, 0.00095485, 0.00088032, 0.00080837, 0.00077242, 0.00078238, 0.00078901, 0.00077525, 0.00079691, 0.00085653, 0.00082472, 0.00093341, 0.000874 , 0.00084302, 0.00086641, 0.00095522, 0.00081354, 0.00078291, 0.00101533, 0.00069615, 0.00091263, 0.00076918, 0.00125829, 0.00061828, 0.00084719, 0.00086877, 0.00088934, 0.00095174, 0.00085284, 0.00090141, 0.00099423, 0.00092569, 0.00072466, 0.0009059 , 0.0008788 , 0.00105905, 0.00098209, 0.00093624, 0.00081127, 0.00085155, 0.00086098, 0.00074496, 0.00075123, 0.00080501, 0.00083121, 0.00069531, 0.00104527, 0.00064575, 0.0009303 , 0.00083598, 0.00087585, 0.00089868, 0.00077984, 0.0009657 , 0.00082224, 0.00096039, 0.00091745, 0.00103447, 0.00095659, 0.00076189, 0.00105875, 0.00105306, 0.00067002, 0.00073647, 0.00084384, 0.0007982 , 0.00081253, 0.00083852, 0.00088481, 0.00087789, 0.00065271, 0.00104855, 0.00082323, 0.00084782, 0.00074116, 0.00082657, 0.00081062, 0.00084854, 0.00082677, 0.00087563]], dtype=float32) - r_2022_23(chain, draw)float32-3.256 -3.26 ... -3.196 -3.188
array([[-3.2563078, -3.2603617, -3.2150767, -3.3446667, -3.234073 , -3.2213757, -3.2493515, -3.2702866, -3.2297006, -3.1251886, -3.163106 , -3.3129303, -3.2830722, -3.1892676, -3.1301398, -3.1301398, -3.2433813, -3.1907735, -3.226314 , -3.173911 , -3.1573186, -3.1985781, -3.1971223, -3.1949565, -3.1949565, -3.142221 , -3.260662 , -3.206724 , -3.1885865, -3.1831784, -3.0797267, -3.311841 , -3.2394102, -3.1957417, -3.1944938, -3.1526349, -3.2183163, -3.2800026, -3.2464347, -3.2408469, -3.2623303, -3.2963603, -3.1711059, -3.2673619, -3.2932496, -3.30141 , -3.3078308, -3.2467735, -3.2006314, -3.2180314, -3.2308366, -3.2076735, -3.3220816, -3.3220816, -3.2804267, -3.2485623, -3.237534 , -3.2696772, -3.290358 , -3.2339938, -3.2363334, -3.270139 , -3.1994247, -3.2109003, -3.2750146, -3.229703 , -3.1913216, -3.3711305, -3.228032 , -3.2264242, -3.191339 , -3.2713025, -3.2264056, -3.204757 , -3.2482564, -3.2402864, -3.2216988, -3.2478597, -3.2914054, -3.2116308, -3.2270648, -3.23462 , -3.2596288, -3.2204676, -3.2495885, -3.2170246, -3.2670436, -3.1406064, -3.40464 , -3.1929111, -3.229786 , -3.2536676, -3.270294 , -3.1214697, -3.1294947, -3.1294947, -3.1294947, -3.2579892, -3.1862247, -3.189275 , ... -3.230357 , -3.2064898, -3.253551 , -3.2260568, -3.2367034, -3.232541 , -3.2359595, -3.2256417, -3.2396185, -3.2253811, -3.1984286, -3.2340984, -3.3437974, -3.1984758, -3.200041 , -3.2267478, -3.2758899, -3.3201742, -3.2892642, -3.2277896, -3.2316632, -3.1557884, -3.1883667, -3.2425623, -3.284001 , -3.1612597, -3.1832333, -3.1264384, -3.1323304, -3.198118 , -3.170215 , -3.2620227, -3.2628284, -3.1884692, -3.2510276, -3.2841365, -3.1347678, -3.1588545, -3.1737185, -3.2169213, -3.2849667, -3.3742983, -3.2844777, -3.2722883, -3.3677027, -3.3335176, -3.3584313, -3.2411034, -3.26482 , -3.2187994, -3.3603227, -3.3623085, -3.3173206, -3.253619 , -3.2974303, -3.241114 , -3.2906268, -3.2116585, -3.2054613, -3.25106 , -3.2039847, -3.285981 , -3.2185278, -3.1958306, -3.2235265, -3.1819448, -3.1955981, -3.1613374, -3.3163705, -3.183334 , -3.166879 , -3.1522105, -3.1806564, -3.1676388, -3.173741 , -3.3093495, -3.3241498, -3.2809954, -3.3493373, -3.344551 , -3.1758285, -3.20735 , -3.2305 , -3.2404761, -3.2589333, -3.2348015, -3.250782 , -3.2908952, -3.2572603, -3.2608972, -3.2775378, -3.2611573, -3.200091 , -3.1963549, -3.1875749]], dtype=float32) - r_2022_23_daily(chain, draw, days_2022_23)float32-3.256 -3.256 ... -3.188 -3.188
array([[[-3.2563078, -3.2563078, -3.2563078, ..., -3.2563078, -3.2563078, -3.2563078], [-3.2603617, -3.2603617, -3.2603617, ..., -3.2603617, -3.2603617, -3.2603617], [-3.2150767, -3.2150767, -3.2150767, ..., -3.2150767, -3.2150767, -3.2150767], ..., [-3.241156 , -3.241156 , -3.241156 , ..., -3.241156 , -3.241156 , -3.241156 ], [-3.160643 , -3.160643 , -3.160643 , ..., -3.160643 , -3.160643 , -3.160643 ], [-3.1458163, -3.1458163, -3.1458163, ..., -3.1458163, -3.1458163, -3.1458163]], [[-3.2538817, -3.2538817, -3.2538817, ..., -3.2538817, -3.2538817, -3.2538817], [-3.2468655, -3.2468655, -3.2468655, ..., -3.2468655, -3.2468655, -3.2468655], [-3.3013194, -3.3013194, -3.3013194, ..., -3.3013194, -3.3013194, -3.3013194], ... [-3.2398367, -3.2398367, -3.2398367, ..., -3.2398367, -3.2398367, -3.2398367], [-3.2398367, -3.2398367, -3.2398367, ..., -3.2398367, -3.2398367, -3.2398367], [-3.2398367, -3.2398367, -3.2398367, ..., -3.2398367, -3.2398367, -3.2398367]], [[-3.3510995, -3.3510995, -3.3510995, ..., -3.3510995, -3.3510995, -3.3510995], [-3.2115428, -3.2115428, -3.2115428, ..., -3.2115428, -3.2115428, -3.2115428], [-3.2566326, -3.2566326, -3.2566326, ..., -3.2566326, -3.2566326, -3.2566326], ..., [-3.200091 , -3.200091 , -3.200091 , ..., -3.200091 , -3.200091 , -3.200091 ], [-3.1963549, -3.1963549, -3.1963549, ..., -3.1963549, -3.1963549, -3.1963549], [-3.1875749, -3.1875749, -3.1875749, ..., -3.1875749, -3.1875749, -3.1875749]]], dtype=float32) - r_2023_24(chain, draw)float32-3.056 -3.057 ... -3.073 -3.09
array([[-3.055761 , -3.0570774, -3.0377164, -2.9650164, -3.029687 , -3.0271733, -3.0354457, -3.0412729, -2.9505253, -2.9968212, -2.9714453, -3.0882087, -3.0682285, -3.1217659, -3.1176271, -3.1176271, -3.0292878, -3.019709 , -3.042617 , -3.1664364, -3.1430902, -3.151422 , -3.0826135, -3.0875618, -3.0875618, -3.0789595, -3.0741918, -3.0086439, -2.9876976, -3.1049895, -3.0269032, -3.116951 , -3.0617583, -3.0916488, -3.0159497, -3.092374 , -3.0691469, -3.0541759, -3.0712478, -3.1296244, -3.0928802, -3.1430118, -3.0937502, -2.9815888, -3.0095546, -3.0016994, -2.942178 , -3.0160666, -2.9907823, -3.0188808, -3.0220263, -3.0321183, -3.0544903, -3.0544903, -3.0646946, -3.0897515, -3.1172264, -2.9087934, -2.9211457, -3.1526854, -3.1604521, -3.1748688, -3.1634004, -3.1248863, -3.0290005, -3.0987866, -3.0872018, -3.0821097, -3.009844 , -3.0167434, -3.0239248, -2.953128 , -3.0589294, -2.9413118, -3.0095057, -3.0045116, -2.988325 , -2.9713914, -3.0219307, -3.010177 , -3.0820594, -3.0652187, -3.0543892, -3.0962734, -3.066174 , -3.0242949, -2.9464328, -3.0664208, -3.020311 , -3.1078084, -3.0748045, -3.0191076, -3.0085096, -3.0719123, -3.096836 , -3.096836 , -3.096836 , -3.122919 , -3.1062047, -3.125735 , ... -3.1840134, -2.9569526, -3.0137699, -3.0138931, -2.968347 , -3.056166 , -2.9857047, -3.0581758, -3.051701 , -3.0124722, -3.068086 , -2.9627302, -3.0362937, -3.0104072, -2.9812932, -3.0181432, -3.096097 , -2.9462383, -2.9969265, -3.0195827, -3.06749 , -3.1161797, -3.1042295, -2.979103 , -2.977905 , -2.9985955, -3.079853 , -3.1042686, -3.0576797, -3.0162272, -3.0618165, -3.002222 , -2.9619458, -3.0001352, -3.0418582, -2.9741347, -3.0529044, -2.9865694, -3.0404284, -2.970011 , -3.0384448, -3.0469959, -3.043901 , -3.0831327, -2.9675317, -2.9984853, -3.049653 , -3.07294 , -3.0088146, -2.975524 , -3.0663393, -3.0778887, -3.1622329, -3.0964105, -3.0004992, -3.0356836, -3.0900736, -2.9761832, -3.0107515, -3.0321329, -3.0655746, -3.0318274, -3.0536962, -3.0671225, -3.036538 , -3.0560472, -3.0665538, -3.0502253, -2.9938505, -3.0618951, -3.1189015, -3.2098176, -3.0851872, -3.0893593, -3.1732485, -3.1501966, -3.1469715, -2.9881792, -3.0997877, -3.073487 , -3.0630465, -2.9889176, -2.982903 , -3.0618556, -3.06508 , -3.0212507, -3.1741178, -3.1342258, -3.0991573, -3.0744703, -3.1337585, -3.153429 , -3.0796533, -3.072798 , -3.0895903]], dtype=float32) - r_2023_24_daily(chain, draw, days_2023_24)float32-3.056 -3.056 ... -3.09 -3.09
array([[[-3.055761 , -3.055761 , -3.055761 , ..., -3.055761 , -3.055761 , -3.055761 ], [-3.0570774, -3.0570774, -3.0570774, ..., -3.0570774, -3.0570774, -3.0570774], [-3.0377164, -3.0377164, -3.0377164, ..., -3.0377164, -3.0377164, -3.0377164], ..., [-3.0136378, -3.0136378, -3.0136378, ..., -3.0136378, -3.0136378, -3.0136378], [-3.0264823, -3.0264823, -3.0264823, ..., -3.0264823, -3.0264823, -3.0264823], [-3.1082044, -3.1082044, -3.1082044, ..., -3.1082044, -3.1082044, -3.1082044]], [[-3.06992 , -3.06992 , -3.06992 , ..., -3.06992 , -3.06992 , -3.06992 ], [-3.0361001, -3.0361001, -3.0361001, ..., -3.0361001, -3.0361001, -3.0361001], [-3.0108602, -3.0108602, -3.0108602, ..., -3.0108602, -3.0108602, -3.0108602], ... [-3.1344779, -3.1344779, -3.1344779, ..., -3.1344779, -3.1344779, -3.1344779], [-3.1344779, -3.1344779, -3.1344779, ..., -3.1344779, -3.1344779, -3.1344779], [-3.1344779, -3.1344779, -3.1344779, ..., -3.1344779, -3.1344779, -3.1344779]], [[-2.9613326, -2.9613326, -2.9613326, ..., -2.9613326, -2.9613326, -2.9613326], [-3.1790419, -3.1790419, -3.1790419, ..., -3.1790419, -3.1790419, -3.1790419], [-2.9913137, -2.9913137, -2.9913137, ..., -2.9913137, -2.9913137, -2.9913137], ..., [-3.0796533, -3.0796533, -3.0796533, ..., -3.0796533, -3.0796533, -3.0796533], [-3.072798 , -3.072798 , -3.072798 , ..., -3.072798 , -3.072798 , -3.072798 ], [-3.0895903, -3.0895903, -3.0895903, ..., -3.0895903, -3.0895903, -3.0895903]]], dtype=float32) - r_2024_25(chain, draw)float32-3.306 -3.268 ... -3.223 -3.21
array([[-3.3062248, -3.2683883, -3.2646267, -3.2656858, -3.2271109, -3.251239 , -3.3210692, -3.295354 , -3.3214169, -3.167334 , -3.2320647, -3.2718754, -3.3077393, -3.1982238, -3.2321541, -3.2321541, -3.1607473, -3.250853 , -3.1876128, -3.1806405, -3.1776876, -3.2648692, -3.2662857, -3.2722192, -3.2722192, -3.2750106, -3.1971793, -3.2307234, -3.2940485, -3.139869 , -3.2111797, -3.2194357, -3.2472055, -3.1783688, -3.2301364, -3.2529871, -3.3507864, -3.4154158, -3.2035701, -3.3025644, -3.2774723, -3.228318 , -3.22894 , -3.2539153, -3.239146 , -3.170326 , -3.207943 , -3.3958218, -3.2301033, -3.2313015, -3.2708185, -3.1553142, -3.2700045, -3.2700045, -3.323064 , -3.3136353, -3.3033633, -3.2025526, -3.2710001, -3.3236842, -3.3279085, -3.3285062, -3.2824183, -3.225908 , -3.2833316, -3.3582513, -3.2198267, -3.2947576, -3.199117 , -3.1784563, -3.1895802, -3.2009506, -3.2671459, -3.2179997, -3.2446444, -3.2464046, -3.2505324, -3.2613509, -3.2667782, -3.1940224, -3.1771464, -3.2524223, -3.2458045, -3.227165 , -3.2523913, -3.1948707, -3.1706047, -3.3049524, -3.3901663, -3.2695584, -3.33138 , -3.174405 , -3.0952115, -3.2666821, -3.254574 , -3.254574 , -3.254574 , -3.2625902, -3.3544695, -3.3825865, ... -3.2646606, -3.229647 , -3.2579062, -3.2170603, -3.1773374, -3.176344 , -3.2808955, -3.257693 , -3.2326455, -3.2427845, -3.306317 , -3.215866 , -3.2969744, -3.3016777, -3.2291534, -3.270132 , -3.3392375, -3.1833286, -3.2512279, -3.3152466, -3.2631521, -3.320369 , -3.2890708, -3.2780519, -3.2847571, -3.262638 , -3.1688426, -3.2473347, -3.195015 , -3.2395046, -3.2133007, -3.1988068, -3.28848 , -3.1547906, -3.2183893, -3.2037377, -3.2310057, -3.2917745, -3.306973 , -3.2493286, -3.2903836, -3.1808078, -3.3321679, -3.2670171, -3.2333574, -3.2294002, -3.2933211, -3.3303943, -3.3549163, -3.1822252, -3.3812976, -3.3265016, -3.422606 , -3.21885 , -3.3800852, -3.431466 , -3.4508684, -3.1994908, -3.2099137, -3.2576566, -3.2215734, -3.410031 , -3.3174994, -3.3156874, -3.2492082, -3.3609998, -3.3370218, -3.1778305, -3.257628 , -3.2148008, -3.38241 , -3.260239 , -3.1952448, -3.249646 , -3.282003 , -3.2184157, -3.2009773, -3.2903826, -3.2891867, -3.1995394, -3.3033292, -3.2307298, -3.390673 , -3.204653 , -3.198529 , -3.294697 , -3.2553425, -3.1503482, -3.3235068, -3.295986 , -3.2620454, -3.2739093, -3.248317 , -3.2226765, -3.209695 ]], dtype=float32) - r_2024_25_daily(chain, draw, days_2024_25)float32-3.306 -3.306 ... -3.21 -3.21
array([[[-3.3062248, -3.3062248, -3.3062248, ..., -3.3062248, -3.3062248, -3.3062248], [-3.2683883, -3.2683883, -3.2683883, ..., -3.2683883, -3.2683883, -3.2683883], [-3.2646267, -3.2646267, -3.2646267, ..., -3.2646267, -3.2646267, -3.2646267], ..., [-3.3616753, -3.3616753, -3.3616753, ..., -3.3616753, -3.3616753, -3.3616753], [-3.2895103, -3.2895103, -3.2895103, ..., -3.2895103, -3.2895103, -3.2895103], [-3.277445 , -3.277445 , -3.277445 , ..., -3.277445 , -3.277445 , -3.277445 ]], [[-3.2422552, -3.2422552, -3.2422552, ..., -3.2422552, -3.2422552, -3.2422552], [-3.3439522, -3.3439522, -3.3439522, ..., -3.3439522, -3.3439522, -3.3439522], [-3.414429 , -3.414429 , -3.414429 , ..., -3.414429 , -3.414429 , -3.414429 ], ... [-3.2098413, -3.2098413, -3.2098413, ..., -3.2098413, -3.2098413, -3.2098413], [-3.2098413, -3.2098413, -3.2098413, ..., -3.2098413, -3.2098413, -3.2098413], [-3.2098413, -3.2098413, -3.2098413, ..., -3.2098413, -3.2098413, -3.2098413]], [[-3.3361442, -3.3361442, -3.3361442, ..., -3.3361442, -3.3361442, -3.3361442], [-3.3658614, -3.3658614, -3.3658614, ..., -3.3658614, -3.3658614, -3.3658614], [-3.2232106, -3.2232106, -3.2232106, ..., -3.2232106, -3.2232106, -3.2232106], ..., [-3.248317 , -3.248317 , -3.248317 , ..., -3.248317 , -3.248317 , -3.248317 ], [-3.2226765, -3.2226765, -3.2226765, ..., -3.2226765, -3.2226765, -3.2226765], [-3.209695 , -3.209695 , -3.209695 , ..., -3.209695 , -3.209695 , -3.209695 ]]], dtype=float32) - r_season(chain, draw, season)float32-3.256 -3.056 ... -3.09 -3.21
array([[[-3.2563078, -3.055761 , -3.3062248], [-3.2603617, -3.0570774, -3.2683883], [-3.2150767, -3.0377164, -3.2646267], ..., [-3.241156 , -3.0136378, -3.3616753], [-3.160643 , -3.0264823, -3.2895103], [-3.1458163, -3.1082044, -3.277445 ]], [[-3.2538817, -3.06992 , -3.2422552], [-3.2468655, -3.0361001, -3.3439522], [-3.3013194, -3.0108602, -3.414429 ], ..., [-3.0585692, -3.0355062, -3.211911 ], [-3.2216334, -3.0671165, -3.293545 ], [-3.2247634, -3.0788846, -3.321118 ]], [[-3.1564417, -3.0416837, -3.1655257], [-3.1564417, -3.0416837, -3.1655257], [-3.1564417, -3.0416837, -3.1655257], ..., [-3.2398367, -3.1344779, -3.2098413], [-3.2398367, -3.1344779, -3.2098413], [-3.2398367, -3.1344779, -3.2098413]], [[-3.3510995, -2.9613326, -3.3361442], [-3.2115428, -3.1790419, -3.3658614], [-3.2566326, -2.9913137, -3.2232106], ..., [-3.200091 , -3.0796533, -3.248317 ], [-3.1963549, -3.072798 , -3.2226765], [-3.1875749, -3.0895903, -3.209695 ]]], dtype=float32) - r_season_mu(chain, draw)float32-2.95 -3.184 ... -2.892 -2.994
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array([[43.519943, 42.169876, 43.91708 , 42.320045, 42.2997 , 42.552032, 43.60729 , 42.44781 , 43.77924 , 42.74606 , 43.02987 , 43.293137, 42.14681 , 41.05255 , 41.469517, 41.469517, 41.92171 , 43.225594, 41.854282, 40.36093 , 40.517582, 40.862404, 41.88284 , 43.076958, 43.076958, 43.300404, 41.89666 , 43.572186, 43.581272, 40.542526, 41.301594, 44.512596, 44.177475, 43.897755, 41.570683, 41.047176, 42.397297, 43.455383, 42.808647, 40.186165, 39.501488, 40.90642 , 43.35037 , 42.225548, 42.400787, 44.22261 , 42.053 , 44.50848 , 41.68731 , 42.53 , 42.687763, 42.818207, 43.200474, 43.200474, 41.60597 , 41.145554, 41.219833, 45.08056 , 42.52332 , 43.19685 , 43.30462 , 40.52822 , 39.998875, 44.41146 , 40.669052, 41.704205, 42.67637 , 42.823277, 41.84572 , 41.98251 , 43.382477, 42.90553 , 40.835346, 45.163666, 42.041645, 42.358135, 41.867496, 42.491554, 42.495358, 44.191795, 42.852745, 42.854572, 42.912933, 42.754726, 42.052464, 43.368465, 43.638172, 44.347744, 41.434467, 42.98005 , 42.71213 , 41.16908 , 41.327957, 43.818047, 44.188583, 44.188583, 44.188583, 41.54683 , 42.295094, 43.123478, 40.722576, 41.647724, 39.127808, 44.490532, 41.72629 , 40.89917 , 43.668003, 43.131767, 40.719467, 40.460873, 40.265663, 42.53719 , 40.325356, 40.73144 , 40.881104, 41.127502, 41.36091 , 42.895992, 41.969822, 42.55673 , ... 43.2959 , 43.581608, 41.590363, 40.54462 , 42.267315, 44.399582, 42.269943, 41.92608 , 38.86729 , 39.67177 , 41.913822, 45.332787, 42.009197, 42.906433, 40.19041 , 43.281425, 41.01949 , 40.068905, 40.905018, 44.817722, 38.73531 , 41.310856, 41.356163, 40.89358 , 46.541164, 45.82335 , 45.599735, 44.991474, 43.62939 , 41.705223, 42.315895, 42.246754, 43.87252 , 44.677124, 44.609604, 42.747738, 42.137077, 44.463863, 42.54537 , 42.803032, 42.326 , 45.33852 , 41.51593 , 42.614666, 43.0676 , 44.109684, 41.421436, 40.979202, 42.491993, 42.94525 , 43.30183 , 43.816025, 42.536488, 43.90581 , 43.545254, 43.602867, 43.388668, 44.406506, 41.954277, 44.405186, 42.49066 , 43.460636, 43.192436, 43.96216 , 41.947598, 42.41268 , 39.4294 , 43.598473, 43.71561 , 43.253742, 41.775093, 42.723446, 41.981136, 45.313385, 45.856945, 44.364906, 41.091564, 44.10363 , 42.30719 , 41.855686, 44.404106, 44.26185 , 42.613228, 40.43179 , 41.974846, 42.83537 , 41.75253 , 42.284374, 40.539707, 40.479202, 42.738495, 43.42571 , 42.17383 , 42.2797 , 40.065796, 40.13599 , 41.060886, 40.919888, 41.848682, 42.076134, 42.355457, 43.75483 , 42.76723 , 42.85643 , 41.860886, 45.78176 , 41.93207 , 42.735874, 43.5926 , 41.961803, 43.31929 , 41.271896, 41.515068, 39.80078 , 40.330154, 43.271873, 43.327377, 43.023186]], dtype=float32) - s_2023_24_daily(chain, draw, days_2023_24)float3243.52 43.52 43.52 ... 43.02 43.02
array([[[43.519943, 43.519943, 43.519943, ..., 43.519943, 43.519943, 43.519943], [42.169876, 42.169876, 42.169876, ..., 42.169876, 42.169876, 42.169876], [43.91708 , 43.91708 , 43.91708 , ..., 43.91708 , 43.91708 , 43.91708 ], ..., [38.90656 , 38.90656 , 38.90656 , ..., 38.90656 , 38.90656 , 38.90656 ], [40.104874, 40.104874, 40.104874, ..., 40.104874, 40.104874, 40.104874], [39.671116, 39.671116, 39.671116, ..., 39.671116, 39.671116, 39.671116]], [[42.976456, 42.976456, 42.976456, ..., 42.976456, 42.976456, 42.976456], [44.704712, 44.704712, 44.704712, ..., 44.704712, 44.704712, 44.704712], [38.719666, 38.719666, 38.719666, ..., 38.719666, 38.719666, 38.719666], ... [42.338673, 42.338673, 42.338673, ..., 42.338673, 42.338673, 42.338673], [42.338673, 42.338673, 42.338673, ..., 42.338673, 42.338673, 42.338673], [42.338673, 42.338673, 42.338673, ..., 42.338673, 42.338673, 42.338673]], [[44.1839 , 44.1839 , 44.1839 , ..., 44.1839 , 44.1839 , 44.1839 ], [41.935013, 41.935013, 41.935013, ..., 41.935013, 41.935013, 41.935013], [42.06665 , 42.06665 , 42.06665 , ..., 42.06665 , 42.06665 , 42.06665 ], ..., [43.271873, 43.271873, 43.271873, ..., 43.271873, 43.271873, 43.271873], [43.327377, 43.327377, 43.327377, ..., 43.327377, 43.327377, 43.327377], [43.023186, 43.023186, 43.023186, ..., 43.023186, 43.023186, 43.023186]]], dtype=float32) - s_2024_25(chain, draw)float3242.03 43.13 40.95 ... 42.1 42.8
array([[42.031982, 43.125298, 40.95365 , 44.092587, 41.260883, 41.377316, 44.830666, 44.56965 , 39.094822, 43.8389 , 42.712997, 42.775387, 42.84995 , 42.063503, 41.33938 , 41.33938 , 42.596416, 42.787758, 41.930843, 42.123703, 42.423126, 42.7776 , 43.192867, 42.39083 , 42.39083 , 42.745277, 42.480755, 42.649803, 43.058132, 42.40034 , 44.43398 , 40.503105, 44.263718, 42.649124, 41.910633, 41.781837, 38.88407 , 39.922024, 44.973946, 40.953976, 41.250328, 42.690456, 42.96103 , 40.877766, 40.725613, 44.732193, 42.488186, 43.97589 , 40.440624, 43.64563 , 44.361332, 41.563217, 41.589043, 41.589043, 41.98387 , 41.78859 , 42.017853, 42.833954, 41.571526, 41.73371 , 41.93523 , 37.867043, 42.83972 , 42.254868, 42.010605, 42.47124 , 42.347458, 41.98587 , 41.016693, 41.00554 , 41.713814, 43.5798 , 40.628498, 42.139793, 40.95315 , 40.561398, 40.74911 , 40.52967 , 40.716026, 41.539703, 42.80841 , 41.061207, 41.33208 , 44.24679 , 43.282646, 42.275646, 42.62829 , 40.658134, 42.00791 , 40.49455 , 41.47332 , 42.83017 , 42.58057 , 40.818665, 41.49135 , 41.49135 , 41.49135 , 43.23696 , 41.978916, 41.548763, 40.211594, 42.480133, 38.287273, 46.96991 , 40.12567 , 39.44276 , 44.36313 , 43.24998 , 42.871998, 42.08045 , 41.89433 , 39.337234, 39.147877, 39.51666 , 41.86109 , 43.030056, 44.584843, 43.125732, 40.608643, 44.33636 , ... 43.184216, 41.29348 , 40.55084 , 43.892216, 44.197533, 41.822376, 39.705383, 40.32929 , 42.397152, 39.344704, 45.3622 , 41.14712 , 40.28846 , 43.716038, 39.664967, 43.007233, 40.815014, 40.94287 , 40.66574 , 43.112747, 37.017265, 40.430153, 39.921337, 39.900356, 43.01752 , 41.673565, 44.350388, 45.898388, 43.622486, 41.566868, 42.131313, 41.97607 , 41.48884 , 40.676464, 43.58028 , 42.284687, 40.007812, 43.727047, 40.561024, 42.745354, 41.144825, 43.33655 , 39.90218 , 43.772926, 41.151638, 41.672916, 42.24863 , 41.23832 , 43.097084, 43.41536 , 43.84041 , 43.487137, 43.439404, 41.838284, 44.293964, 42.75443 , 45.420216, 42.74929 , 45.007374, 40.537975, 44.618683, 41.197826, 43.033005, 44.223988, 44.518864, 41.33485 , 44.95168 , 38.067398, 38.076946, 39.035904, 39.149555, 40.247383, 41.8924 , 42.138817, 41.657177, 40.760563, 42.519787, 40.13743 , 40.25087 , 41.688313, 45.657627, 45.672672, 40.244358, 40.596146, 40.73542 , 39.09495 , 43.75001 , 43.347843, 41.35014 , 41.062096, 41.989857, 46.02764 , 40.3642 , 37.973278, 42.423073, 41.85019 , 41.014095, 42.03734 , 39.925945, 39.983627, 43.68553 , 42.125668, 42.724365, 41.552486, 41.075012, 39.864426, 41.685455, 41.247036, 41.151432, 42.701508, 44.37935 , 41.201538, 41.157883, 39.522297, 40.945213, 42.275433, 42.101418, 42.801643]], dtype=float32) - s_2024_25_daily(chain, draw, days_2024_25)float3242.03 42.03 42.03 ... 42.8 42.8
array([[[42.031982, 42.031982, 42.031982, ..., 42.031982, 42.031982, 42.031982], [43.125298, 43.125298, 43.125298, ..., 43.125298, 43.125298, 43.125298], [40.95365 , 40.95365 , 40.95365 , ..., 40.95365 , 40.95365 , 40.95365 ], ..., [44.499683, 44.499683, 44.499683, ..., 44.499683, 44.499683, 44.499683], [42.877563, 42.877563, 42.877563, ..., 42.877563, 42.877563, 42.877563], [42.361614, 42.361614, 42.361614, ..., 42.361614, 42.361614, 42.361614]], [[37.42025 , 37.42025 , 37.42025 , ..., 37.42025 , 37.42025 , 37.42025 ], [38.093327, 38.093327, 38.093327, ..., 38.093327, 38.093327, 38.093327], [44.8464 , 44.8464 , 44.8464 , ..., 44.8464 , 44.8464 , 44.8464 ], ... [40.29984 , 40.29984 , 40.29984 , ..., 40.29984 , 40.29984 , 40.29984 ], [40.29984 , 40.29984 , 40.29984 , ..., 40.29984 , 40.29984 , 40.29984 ], [40.29984 , 40.29984 , 40.29984 , ..., 40.29984 , 40.29984 , 40.29984 ]], [[45.33814 , 45.33814 , 45.33814 , ..., 45.33814 , 45.33814 , 45.33814 ], [39.69982 , 39.69982 , 39.69982 , ..., 39.69982 , 39.69982 , 39.69982 ], [45.347794, 45.347794, 45.347794, ..., 45.347794, 45.347794, 45.347794], ..., [42.275433, 42.275433, 42.275433, ..., 42.275433, 42.275433, 42.275433], [42.101418, 42.101418, 42.101418, ..., 42.101418, 42.101418, 42.101418], [42.801643, 42.801643, 42.801643, ..., 42.801643, 42.801643, 42.801643]]], dtype=float32) - s_season(chain, draw, season)float3240.13 43.52 42.03 ... 43.02 42.8
array([[[40.13426 , 43.519943, 42.031982], [40.92761 , 42.169876, 43.125298], [37.837856, 43.91708 , 40.95365 ], ..., [43.58215 , 38.90656 , 44.499683], [39.303505, 40.104874, 42.877563], [39.446545, 39.671116, 42.361614]], [[40.923386, 42.976456, 37.42025 ], [39.567352, 44.704712, 38.093327], [35.875416, 38.719666, 44.8464 ], ..., [41.696404, 43.156784, 41.737873], [42.03409 , 42.45108 , 42.03881 ], [41.60912 , 42.837303, 42.256924]], [[41.39877 , 41.900112, 41.818825], [41.39877 , 41.900112, 41.818825], [41.39877 , 41.900112, 41.818825], ..., [41.50108 , 42.338673, 40.29984 ], [41.50108 , 42.338673, 40.29984 ], [41.50108 , 42.338673, 40.29984 ]], [[39.8862 , 44.1839 , 45.33814 ], [36.65889 , 41.935013, 39.69982 ], [41.534893, 42.06665 , 45.347794], ..., [41.95802 , 43.271873, 42.275433], [42.018967, 43.327377, 42.101418], [42.78797 , 43.023186, 42.801643]]], dtype=float32) - s_season_mu(chain, draw)float3242.54 42.58 37.54 ... 42.5 43.1
array([[42.540066, 42.5844 , 37.544884, 43.73691 , 40.040943, 40.58668 , 43.293324, 41.243126, 41.291912, 42.402428, 42.14822 , 41.48141 , 42.073265, 41.562454, 41.08849 , 41.08849 , 41.815666, 35.126343, 43.676075, 37.78681 , 37.6089 , 42.0368 , 41.858223, 42.558395, 42.558395, 42.837967, 41.821762, 43.576607, 44.107037, 39.124535, 41.987797, 46.638046, 45.18265 , 40.88647 , 41.48543 , 40.70371 , 37.605915, 42.73545 , 40.72074 , 40.770805, 39.838936, 40.37717 , 41.3869 , 35.945847, 35.307854, 29.955315, 38.078316, 35.014294, 41.430885, 41.959 , 42.04214 , 42.187992, 41.7015 , 41.7015 , 41.73506 , 42.233475, 41.134613, 41.015526, 44.275066, 32.65799 , 32.21794 , 44.637066, 37.96777 , 40.079815, 19.125381, 26.607494, 34.291702, 40.881832, 41.286015, 40.78002 , 41.03052 , 42.041283, 39.978455, 41.947117, 41.920094, 41.24466 , 41.858105, 40.44434 , 39.249424, 42.011353, 42.848927, 41.60359 , 40.504913, 41.358486, 38.6833 , 44.251736, 41.734234, 41.09589 , 41.870388, 43.32846 , 40.45846 , 41.286976, 41.39389 , 40.361084, 42.555355, 42.555355, 42.555355, 42.973286, 40.10257 , 42.698338, 39.304237, 41.500782, 38.023666, 45.94722 , 37.77798 , 35.485435, 45.429813, 41.12597 , 38.817024, 42.822132, 41.653675, 37.795513, 39.329372, 37.741135, 34.618103, 35.237793, 40.794243, 40.10033 , 41.926678, 43.38388 , ... 40.687317, 41.174732, 40.21714 , 40.645935, 41.742855, 42.866756, 44.08685 , 41.879204, 41.73428 , 39.688595, 40.253777, 45.265915, 42.61148 , 41.982834, 39.796867, 39.752502, 41.694054, 39.946934, 39.124454, 43.015358, 38.56598 , 39.82718 , 40.658092, 40.34963 , 44.482723, 44.5067 , 43.29345 , 43.87485 , 42.97507 , 39.459488, 46.560066, 43.498608, 38.977802, 47.18147 , 47.942345, 46.3712 , 37.663128, 50.71636 , 52.21623 , 47.166683, 38.938263, 42.551918, 42.821754, 39.632317, 41.406715, 40.693085, 42.14794 , 40.406494, 41.99899 , 42.796104, 43.314396, 43.07394 , 42.120083, 42.55711 , 43.606873, 42.967884, 42.659973, 45.032543, 41.012558, 44.094646, 44.520386, 36.285294, 36.78629 , 37.74499 , 45.19593 , 38.938778, 42.85186 , 27.081846, 26.777027, 27.220552, 17.562002, 15.031777, 33.38646 , 36.519672, 38.6917 , 39.19459 , 41.395836, 38.148754, 39.76959 , 38.588024, 43.006348, 41.597267, 38.68835 , 41.698647, 42.336582, 38.39286 , 45.115223, 43.62349 , 38.057774, 38.187836, 32.89453 , 31.809465, 50.476086, 46.79083 , 42.230423, 36.787285, 38.31018 , 38.846222, 41.03837 , 40.987087, 42.870777, 39.91448 , 39.942978, 41.42548 , 41.36556 , 38.222115, 41.536167, 41.89593 , 39.66419 , 41.152676, 41.527985, 40.87756 , 40.568848, 39.3447 , 38.990772, 42.175484, 42.50036 , 43.09949 ]], dtype=float32) - s_season_sigma(chain, draw)float321.444 1.567 8.619 ... 0.7615 0.7722
array([[ 1.443726 , 1.5674711 , 8.619423 , 2.307159 , 1.1830058 , 1.6447661 , 4.822803 , 2.4657867 , 1.8752524 , 2.2580295 , 1.3991225 , 1.90171 , 2.5273886 , 0.8873635 , 0.78566784, 0.78566784, 0.9223377 , 6.466175 , 4.4839516 , 2.245003 , 2.0858183 , 5.6170473 , 1.0127121 , 1.2892897 , 1.2892897 , 1.5657347 , 5.098511 , 1.1309993 , 0.8074957 , 4.130797 , 1.7520664 , 7.5142136 , 5.8398943 , 1.8976964 , 1.6049328 , 2.068077 , 5.202487 , 3.3675356 , 2.6725712 , 6.7091 , 4.1031713 , 4.33038 , 2.1368575 , 6.1977124 , 6.0350184 , 20.230448 , 4.5710363 , 11.901279 , 0.8773997 , 3.8905125 , 2.9648697 , 0.786517 , 0.9102864 , 0.9102864 , 0.82287955, 0.85904497, 1.0917221 , 2.7332025 , 7.27119 , 11.134655 , 8.150147 , 5.176118 , 21.251966 , 22.020887 , 16.728245 , 20.162943 , 11.732607 , 1.8283844 , 1.6694969 , 0.92125446, 2.0292294 , 1.0769587 , 2.6846228 , 2.3046105 , 1.7144291 , 0.9900852 , 0.8666655 , 1.2040102 , 3.3485696 , 2.2938273 , 3.4333074 , 1.681001 , 1.4710584 , 4.373357 , 6.435474 , 2.6047757 , 3.1226697 , 3.133929 , 2.0388486 , 2.7296803 , 6.2567043 , 1.0037332 , 2.0893302 , 2.71656 , 2.2430925 , 2.2430925 , 2.2430925 , 3.2522914 , 1.68926 , 1.0334569 , ... 2.3480213 , 2.690256 , 2.0347505 , 3.0083702 , 2.2750864 , 4.4435453 , 1.6743181 , 5.0471115 , 3.5156388 , 2.3440003 , 8.12144 , 7.124876 , 5.8079824 , 9.313919 , 13.962883 , 11.535858 , 7.971515 , 10.680635 , 3.6533878 , 6.79087 , 6.657081 , 1.2690612 , 2.803423 , 1.3463553 , 0.9823936 , 1.2624967 , 0.7760755 , 1.0101414 , 0.5779713 , 3.1131825 , 1.1981087 , 0.9430815 , 1.1530133 , 5.728032 , 3.8191879 , 2.3556507 , 1.7831414 , 1.5033576 , 6.7791963 , 9.848515 , 4.003584 , 2.7722878 , 4.5196524 , 3.7853434 , 8.645966 , 11.378164 , 12.298815 , 24.275444 , 33.90542 , 11.802125 , 5.425516 , 4.338696 , 14.309532 , 1.637964 , 7.5242724 , 2.692444 , 2.7914305 , 1.9130002 , 3.3159204 , 2.9112155 , 2.099186 , 5.0260224 , 2.8824153 , 3.6992118 , 3.1421962 , 3.7667332 , 4.4751806 , 16.716228 , 13.458419 , 10.002869 , 10.531812 , 3.3800762 , 4.0971074 , 5.3125286 , 3.4541502 , 1.2984277 , 1.449392 , 3.109138 , 2.95799 , 4.4081397 , 1.5184891 , 2.8637414 , 6.1245217 , 0.67338914, 1.1028482 , 3.886438 , 1.4733546 , 2.2505252 , 0.77116436, 1.0031675 , 1.4055878 , 2.1673174 , 0.9355057 , 0.7614528 , 0.77215457]], dtype=float32)
- created_at :
- 2026-03-31T21:16:39.588077+00:00
- arviz_version :
- 0.23.4
- inference_library :
- numpyro
- inference_library_version :
- 0.20.1
<xarray.Dataset> Size: 5MB Dimensions: (chain: 4, draw: 250, season: 3, date_ranges_2022_23: 18, date_ranges_2023_24: 18, date_ranges_2024_25: 17, days_2022_23: 126, days_2023_24: 126, days_2024_25: 119, observation: 53) Coordinates: * chain (chain) int64 32B 0 1 2 3 * draw (draw) int64 2kB 0 1 2 3 4 ... 246 247 248 249 * season (season) <U7 84B '2022/23' '2023/24' '2024/25' * date_ranges_2022_23 (date_ranges_2022_23) <U21 2kB '2022-11-14_202... * date_ranges_2023_24 (date_ranges_2023_24) <U21 2kB '2023-12-25_202... * date_ranges_2024_25 (date_ranges_2024_25) <U21 1kB '2024-12-30_202... * days_2022_23 (days_2022_23) <U10 5kB '2022-10-03' ... '2023... * days_2023_24 (days_2023_24) <U10 5kB '2023-10-02' ... '2024... * days_2024_25 (days_2024_25) <U10 5kB '2024-10-07' ... '2025... * observation (observation) <U29 6kB '2022/23|2022-10-03|202... Data variables: (12/35) covariate_values_m_season (chain, draw, season) float32 12kB -0.4974 ...... covariate_values_r_season (chain, draw, season) float32 12kB -3.256 ... ... covariate_values_s_season (chain, draw, season) float32 12kB 40.13 ... 42.8 incidence_2022_23 (chain, draw, date_ranges_2022_23) float32 72kB ... incidence_2023_24 (chain, draw, date_ranges_2023_24) float32 72kB ... incidence_2024_25 (chain, draw, date_ranges_2024_25) float32 68kB ... ... ... s_2023_24_daily (chain, draw, days_2023_24) float32 504kB 43.5... s_2024_25 (chain, draw) float32 4kB 42.03 43.13 ... 42.8 s_2024_25_daily (chain, draw, days_2024_25) float32 476kB 42.0... s_season (chain, draw, season) float32 12kB 40.13 ... 42.8 s_season_mu (chain, draw) float32 4kB 42.54 42.58 ... 43.1 s_season_sigma (chain, draw) float32 4kB 1.444 1.567 ... 0.7722 Attributes: created_at: 2026-03-31T21:16:39.588077+00:00 arviz_version: 0.23.4 inference_library: numpyro inference_library_version: 0.20.1xarray.Dataset -
- chain: 4
- draw: 250
- season: 3
- date_ranges_2022_23: 18
- incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0: 0
- date_ranges_2023_24: 18
- incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty_dim_0: 0
- date_ranges_2024_25: 17
- incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0: 0
- days_2022_23: 126
- days_2023_24: 126
- days_2024_25: 119
- observation: 53
- chain(chain)int640 1 2 3
array([0, 1, 2, 3])
- draw(draw)int640 1 2 3 4 5 ... 245 246 247 248 249
array([ 0, 1, 2, ..., 247, 248, 249])
- season(season)<U7'2022/23' '2023/24' '2024/25'
array(['2022/23', '2023/24', '2024/25'], dtype='<U7')
- date_ranges_2022_23(date_ranges_2022_23)<U21'2022-11-14_2022-11-20' ... '202...
array(['2022-11-14_2022-11-20', '2022-10-31_2022-11-06', '2022-12-19_2022-12-25', '2023-01-16_2023-01-22', '2023-01-02_2023-01-08', '2022-11-21_2022-11-27', '2022-12-05_2022-12-11', '2022-10-17_2022-10-23', '2022-10-24_2022-10-30', '2022-10-10_2022-10-16', '2023-01-09_2023-01-15', '2022-12-26_2023-01-01', '2023-01-23_2023-01-29', '2022-10-03_2022-10-09', '2023-01-30_2023-02-05', '2022-12-12_2022-12-18', '2022-11-28_2022-12-04', '2022-11-07_2022-11-13'], dtype='<U21') - incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0(incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0)int64
array([], dtype=int64)
- date_ranges_2023_24(date_ranges_2023_24)<U21'2023-12-25_2023-12-31' ... '202...
array(['2023-12-25_2023-12-31', '2023-11-13_2023-11-19', '2023-10-09_2023-10-15', '2023-10-02_2023-10-08', '2023-10-30_2023-11-05', '2024-01-01_2024-01-07', '2023-11-20_2023-11-26', '2023-12-18_2023-12-24', '2024-01-29_2024-02-04', '2023-10-16_2023-10-22', '2024-01-15_2024-01-21', '2023-11-06_2023-11-12', '2023-12-11_2023-12-17', '2023-10-23_2023-10-29', '2023-11-27_2023-12-03', '2023-12-04_2023-12-10', '2024-01-08_2024-01-14', '2024-01-22_2024-01-28'], dtype='<U21') - incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty_dim_0(incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty_dim_0)int64
array([], dtype=int64)
- date_ranges_2024_25(date_ranges_2024_25)<U21'2024-12-30_2025-01-05' ... '202...
array(['2024-12-30_2025-01-05', '2024-10-21_2024-10-27', '2024-11-11_2024-11-17', '2024-12-09_2024-12-15', '2024-11-25_2024-12-01', '2024-12-02_2024-12-08', '2025-01-06_2025-01-12', '2024-10-07_2024-10-13', '2025-01-27_2025-02-02', '2025-01-20_2025-01-26', '2025-01-13_2025-01-19', '2024-11-18_2024-11-24', '2024-12-23_2024-12-29', '2024-11-04_2024-11-10', '2024-12-16_2024-12-22', '2024-10-14_2024-10-20', '2024-10-28_2024-11-03'], dtype='<U21') - incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0(incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0)int64
array([], dtype=int64)
- days_2022_23(days_2022_23)<U10'2022-10-03' ... '2023-02-05'
array(['2022-10-03', '2022-10-04', '2022-10-05', '2022-10-06', '2022-10-07', '2022-10-08', '2022-10-09', '2022-10-10', '2022-10-11', '2022-10-12', '2022-10-13', '2022-10-14', '2022-10-15', '2022-10-16', '2022-10-17', '2022-10-18', '2022-10-19', '2022-10-20', '2022-10-21', '2022-10-22', '2022-10-23', '2022-10-24', '2022-10-25', '2022-10-26', '2022-10-27', '2022-10-28', '2022-10-29', '2022-10-30', '2022-10-31', '2022-11-01', '2022-11-02', '2022-11-03', '2022-11-04', '2022-11-05', '2022-11-06', '2022-11-07', '2022-11-08', '2022-11-09', '2022-11-10', '2022-11-11', '2022-11-12', '2022-11-13', '2022-11-14', '2022-11-15', '2022-11-16', '2022-11-17', '2022-11-18', '2022-11-19', '2022-11-20', '2022-11-21', '2022-11-22', '2022-11-23', '2022-11-24', '2022-11-25', '2022-11-26', '2022-11-27', '2022-11-28', '2022-11-29', '2022-11-30', '2022-12-01', '2022-12-02', '2022-12-03', '2022-12-04', '2022-12-05', '2022-12-06', '2022-12-07', '2022-12-08', '2022-12-09', '2022-12-10', '2022-12-11', '2022-12-12', '2022-12-13', '2022-12-14', '2022-12-15', '2022-12-16', '2022-12-17', '2022-12-18', '2022-12-19', '2022-12-20', '2022-12-21', '2022-12-22', '2022-12-23', '2022-12-24', '2022-12-25', '2022-12-26', '2022-12-27', '2022-12-28', '2022-12-29', '2022-12-30', '2022-12-31', '2023-01-01', '2023-01-02', '2023-01-03', '2023-01-04', '2023-01-05', '2023-01-06', '2023-01-07', '2023-01-08', '2023-01-09', '2023-01-10', '2023-01-11', '2023-01-12', '2023-01-13', '2023-01-14', '2023-01-15', '2023-01-16', '2023-01-17', '2023-01-18', '2023-01-19', '2023-01-20', '2023-01-21', '2023-01-22', '2023-01-23', '2023-01-24', '2023-01-25', '2023-01-26', '2023-01-27', '2023-01-28', '2023-01-29', '2023-01-30', '2023-01-31', '2023-02-01', '2023-02-02', '2023-02-03', '2023-02-04', '2023-02-05'], dtype='<U10') - days_2023_24(days_2023_24)<U10'2023-10-02' ... '2024-02-04'
array(['2023-10-02', '2023-10-03', '2023-10-04', '2023-10-05', '2023-10-06', '2023-10-07', '2023-10-08', '2023-10-09', '2023-10-10', '2023-10-11', '2023-10-12', '2023-10-13', '2023-10-14', '2023-10-15', '2023-10-16', '2023-10-17', '2023-10-18', '2023-10-19', '2023-10-20', '2023-10-21', '2023-10-22', '2023-10-23', '2023-10-24', '2023-10-25', '2023-10-26', '2023-10-27', '2023-10-28', '2023-10-29', '2023-10-30', '2023-10-31', '2023-11-01', '2023-11-02', '2023-11-03', '2023-11-04', '2023-11-05', '2023-11-06', '2023-11-07', '2023-11-08', '2023-11-09', '2023-11-10', '2023-11-11', '2023-11-12', '2023-11-13', '2023-11-14', '2023-11-15', '2023-11-16', '2023-11-17', '2023-11-18', '2023-11-19', '2023-11-20', '2023-11-21', '2023-11-22', '2023-11-23', '2023-11-24', '2023-11-25', '2023-11-26', '2023-11-27', '2023-11-28', '2023-11-29', '2023-11-30', '2023-12-01', '2023-12-02', '2023-12-03', '2023-12-04', '2023-12-05', '2023-12-06', '2023-12-07', '2023-12-08', '2023-12-09', '2023-12-10', '2023-12-11', '2023-12-12', '2023-12-13', '2023-12-14', '2023-12-15', '2023-12-16', '2023-12-17', '2023-12-18', '2023-12-19', '2023-12-20', '2023-12-21', '2023-12-22', '2023-12-23', '2023-12-24', '2023-12-25', '2023-12-26', '2023-12-27', '2023-12-28', '2023-12-29', '2023-12-30', '2023-12-31', '2024-01-01', '2024-01-02', '2024-01-03', '2024-01-04', '2024-01-05', '2024-01-06', '2024-01-07', '2024-01-08', '2024-01-09', '2024-01-10', '2024-01-11', '2024-01-12', '2024-01-13', '2024-01-14', '2024-01-15', '2024-01-16', '2024-01-17', '2024-01-18', '2024-01-19', '2024-01-20', '2024-01-21', '2024-01-22', '2024-01-23', '2024-01-24', '2024-01-25', '2024-01-26', '2024-01-27', '2024-01-28', '2024-01-29', '2024-01-30', '2024-01-31', '2024-02-01', '2024-02-02', '2024-02-03', '2024-02-04'], dtype='<U10') - days_2024_25(days_2024_25)<U10'2024-10-07' ... '2025-02-02'
array(['2024-10-07', '2024-10-08', '2024-10-09', '2024-10-10', '2024-10-11', '2024-10-12', '2024-10-13', '2024-10-14', '2024-10-15', '2024-10-16', '2024-10-17', '2024-10-18', '2024-10-19', '2024-10-20', '2024-10-21', '2024-10-22', '2024-10-23', '2024-10-24', '2024-10-25', '2024-10-26', '2024-10-27', '2024-10-28', '2024-10-29', '2024-10-30', '2024-10-31', '2024-11-01', '2024-11-02', '2024-11-03', '2024-11-04', '2024-11-05', '2024-11-06', '2024-11-07', '2024-11-08', '2024-11-09', '2024-11-10', '2024-11-11', '2024-11-12', '2024-11-13', '2024-11-14', '2024-11-15', '2024-11-16', '2024-11-17', '2024-11-18', '2024-11-19', '2024-11-20', '2024-11-21', '2024-11-22', '2024-11-23', '2024-11-24', '2024-11-25', '2024-11-26', '2024-11-27', '2024-11-28', '2024-11-29', '2024-11-30', '2024-12-01', '2024-12-02', '2024-12-03', '2024-12-04', '2024-12-05', '2024-12-06', '2024-12-07', '2024-12-08', '2024-12-09', '2024-12-10', '2024-12-11', '2024-12-12', '2024-12-13', '2024-12-14', '2024-12-15', '2024-12-16', '2024-12-17', '2024-12-18', '2024-12-19', '2024-12-20', '2024-12-21', '2024-12-22', '2024-12-23', '2024-12-24', '2024-12-25', '2024-12-26', '2024-12-27', '2024-12-28', '2024-12-29', '2024-12-30', '2024-12-31', '2025-01-01', '2025-01-02', '2025-01-03', '2025-01-04', '2025-01-05', '2025-01-06', '2025-01-07', '2025-01-08', '2025-01-09', '2025-01-10', '2025-01-11', '2025-01-12', '2025-01-13', '2025-01-14', '2025-01-15', '2025-01-16', '2025-01-17', '2025-01-18', '2025-01-19', '2025-01-20', '2025-01-21', '2025-01-22', '2025-01-23', '2025-01-24', '2025-01-25', '2025-01-26', '2025-01-27', '2025-01-28', '2025-01-29', '2025-01-30', '2025-01-31', '2025-02-01', '2025-02-02'], dtype='<U10') - observation(observation)<U29'2022/23|2022-10-03|2022-10-09' ...
array(['2022/23|2022-10-03|2022-10-09', '2022/23|2022-10-10|2022-10-16', '2022/23|2022-10-17|2022-10-23', '2022/23|2022-10-24|2022-10-30', '2022/23|2022-10-31|2022-11-06', '2022/23|2022-11-07|2022-11-13', '2022/23|2022-11-14|2022-11-20', '2022/23|2022-11-21|2022-11-27', '2022/23|2022-11-28|2022-12-04', '2022/23|2022-12-05|2022-12-11', '2022/23|2022-12-12|2022-12-18', '2022/23|2022-12-19|2022-12-25', '2022/23|2022-12-26|2023-01-01', '2022/23|2023-01-02|2023-01-08', '2022/23|2023-01-09|2023-01-15', '2022/23|2023-01-16|2023-01-22', '2022/23|2023-01-23|2023-01-29', '2022/23|2023-01-30|2023-02-05', '2023/24|2023-10-02|2023-10-08', '2023/24|2023-10-09|2023-10-15', '2023/24|2023-10-16|2023-10-22', '2023/24|2023-10-23|2023-10-29', '2023/24|2023-10-30|2023-11-05', '2023/24|2023-11-06|2023-11-12', '2023/24|2023-11-13|2023-11-19', '2023/24|2023-11-20|2023-11-26', '2023/24|2023-11-27|2023-12-03', '2023/24|2023-12-04|2023-12-10', '2023/24|2023-12-11|2023-12-17', '2023/24|2023-12-18|2023-12-24', '2023/24|2023-12-25|2023-12-31', '2023/24|2024-01-01|2024-01-07', '2023/24|2024-01-08|2024-01-14', '2023/24|2024-01-15|2024-01-21', '2023/24|2024-01-22|2024-01-28', '2023/24|2024-01-29|2024-02-04', '2024/25|2024-10-07|2024-10-13', '2024/25|2024-10-14|2024-10-20', '2024/25|2024-10-21|2024-10-27', '2024/25|2024-10-28|2024-11-03', '2024/25|2024-11-04|2024-11-10', '2024/25|2024-11-11|2024-11-17', '2024/25|2024-11-18|2024-11-24', '2024/25|2024-11-25|2024-12-01', '2024/25|2024-12-02|2024-12-08', '2024/25|2024-12-09|2024-12-15', '2024/25|2024-12-16|2024-12-22', '2024/25|2024-12-23|2024-12-29', '2024/25|2024-12-30|2025-01-05', '2024/25|2025-01-06|2025-01-12', '2024/25|2025-01-13|2025-01-19', '2024/25|2025-01-20|2025-01-26', '2024/25|2025-01-27|2025-02-02'], dtype='<U29')
- covariate_values_m_season(chain, draw, season)float32-0.4974 -0.6507 ... -0.6031 -0.4785
array([[[-0.49738163, -0.6506679 , -0.4685821 ], [-0.47855425, -0.6611174 , -0.48383686], [-0.51753247, -0.63674974, -0.5431301 ], ..., [-0.57851636, -0.7977064 , -0.3846375 ], [-0.54014975, -0.61614513, -0.46096885], [-0.5804585 , -0.60568917, -0.41340694]], [[-0.5477426 , -0.5382099 , -0.44042572], [-0.43735296, -0.6461379 , -0.51044434], [-0.31916413, -0.7628142 , -0.41457978], ..., [-0.6383253 , -0.6386362 , -0.5166232 ], [-0.6085852 , -0.68457097, -0.540831 ], [-0.45805156, -0.60616595, -0.3585802 ]], [[-0.54605246, -0.75272435, -0.6145763 ], [-0.54605246, -0.75272435, -0.6145763 ], [-0.54605246, -0.75272435, -0.6145763 ], ..., [-0.49464446, -0.5753273 , -0.52599823], [-0.49464446, -0.5753273 , -0.52599823], [-0.49464446, -0.5753273 , -0.52599823]], [[-0.3229709 , -0.7217566 , -0.5091384 ], [-0.5713311 , -0.5524792 , -0.46915114], [-0.42704353, -0.77889746, -0.5099993 ], ..., [-0.5601264 , -0.6155328 , -0.49187234], [-0.5602284 , -0.60508925, -0.48111704], [-0.55177057, -0.603126 , -0.4785126 ]]], dtype=float32) - covariate_values_r_season(chain, draw, season)float32-3.256 -3.056 ... -3.09 -3.21
array([[[-3.2563078, -3.055761 , -3.3062248], [-3.2603617, -3.0570774, -3.2683883], [-3.2150767, -3.0377164, -3.2646267], ..., [-3.241156 , -3.0136378, -3.3616753], [-3.160643 , -3.0264823, -3.2895103], [-3.1458163, -3.1082044, -3.277445 ]], [[-3.2538817, -3.06992 , -3.2422552], [-3.2468655, -3.0361001, -3.3439522], [-3.3013194, -3.0108602, -3.414429 ], ..., [-3.0585692, -3.0355062, -3.211911 ], [-3.2216334, -3.0671165, -3.293545 ], [-3.2247634, -3.0788846, -3.321118 ]], [[-3.1564417, -3.0416837, -3.1655257], [-3.1564417, -3.0416837, -3.1655257], [-3.1564417, -3.0416837, -3.1655257], ..., [-3.2398367, -3.1344779, -3.2098413], [-3.2398367, -3.1344779, -3.2098413], [-3.2398367, -3.1344779, -3.2098413]], [[-3.3510995, -2.9613326, -3.3361442], [-3.2115428, -3.1790419, -3.3658614], [-3.2566326, -2.9913137, -3.2232106], ..., [-3.200091 , -3.0796533, -3.248317 ], [-3.1963549, -3.072798 , -3.2226765], [-3.1875749, -3.0895903, -3.209695 ]]], dtype=float32) - covariate_values_s_season(chain, draw, season)float3240.13 43.52 42.03 ... 43.02 42.8
array([[[40.13426 , 43.519943, 42.031982], [40.92761 , 42.169876, 43.125298], [37.837856, 43.91708 , 40.95365 ], ..., [43.58215 , 38.90656 , 44.499683], [39.303505, 40.104874, 42.877563], [39.446545, 39.671116, 42.361614]], [[40.923386, 42.976456, 37.42025 ], [39.567352, 44.704712, 38.093327], [35.875416, 38.719666, 44.8464 ], ..., [41.696404, 43.156784, 41.737873], [42.03409 , 42.45108 , 42.03881 ], [41.60912 , 42.837303, 42.256924]], [[41.39877 , 41.900112, 41.818825], [41.39877 , 41.900112, 41.818825], [41.39877 , 41.900112, 41.818825], ..., [41.50108 , 42.338673, 40.29984 ], [41.50108 , 42.338673, 40.29984 ], [41.50108 , 42.338673, 40.29984 ]], [[39.8862 , 44.1839 , 45.33814 ], [36.65889 , 41.935013, 39.69982 ], [41.534893, 42.06665 , 45.347794], ..., [41.95802 , 43.271873, 42.275433], [42.018967, 43.327377, 42.101418], [42.78797 , 43.023186, 42.801643]]], dtype=float32) - incidence_2022_23(chain, draw, date_ranges_2022_23)float320.02524 0.02469 ... 0.02362 0.0261
array([[[0.02523916, 0.02469149, 0.01487034, ..., 0.01749404, 0.02238482, 0.0254178 ], [0.02550013, 0.0247505 , 0.01533891, ..., 0.01797749, 0.0228132 , 0.02557503], [0.02566561, 0.02571209, 0.01378484, ..., 0.01653905, 0.02200159, 0.02619706], ..., [0.02453869, 0.02313439, 0.01538233, ..., 0.01795694, 0.02246176, 0.02426836], [0.02687523, 0.02644352, 0.01403187, ..., 0.01704226, 0.02303483, 0.02724625], [0.0265924 , 0.02610488, 0.01369223, ..., 0.01670243, 0.02272933, 0.0269458 ]], [[0.02457607, 0.02384546, 0.01469205, ..., 0.01725062, 0.02195446, 0.02464973], [0.02637343, 0.02594395, 0.01520979, ..., 0.017975 , 0.02320776, 0.02664294], [0.02634533, 0.02687693, 0.01492019, ..., 0.01756087, 0.02273241, 0.02705205], ... [0.02580541, 0.02486448, 0.0154173 , ..., 0.01813787, 0.02311607, 0.02580526], [0.02580541, 0.02486448, 0.0154173 , ..., 0.01813787, 0.02311607, 0.02580526], [0.02580541, 0.02486448, 0.0154173 , ..., 0.01813787, 0.02311607, 0.02580526]], [[0.02551942, 0.02511256, 0.01629271, ..., 0.01871075, 0.02305014, 0.02569615], [0.02470882, 0.02508391, 0.01288305, ..., 0.01553279, 0.020903 , 0.02539134], [0.0264573 , 0.02551471, 0.01606802, ..., 0.01881284, 0.02379232, 0.02645254], ..., [0.02578707, 0.02464252, 0.01498111, ..., 0.01780013, 0.02301116, 0.02571894], [0.0258848 , 0.02471028, 0.01500401, ..., 0.01784323, 0.02309479, 0.02580676], [0.02629573, 0.02485777, 0.01539648, ..., 0.01830531, 0.02362045, 0.026096 ]]], dtype=float32) - incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty(chain, draw, incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0)float32
array([], shape=(4, 250, 0), dtype=float32)
- incidence_2023_24(chain, draw, date_ranges_2023_24)float320.01146 0.02815 ... 0.003964
array([[[0.0114616 , 0.02815419, 0.01603184, ..., 0.02159631, 0.00664894, 0.00365942], [0.01084457, 0.02783562, 0.01658892, ..., 0.02077288, 0.00625701, 0.00343466], [0.01161355, 0.02894278, 0.0159608 , ..., 0.02218808, 0.00665431, 0.00361524], ..., [0.00842282, 0.02604064, 0.01674333, ..., 0.01765214, 0.00462704, 0.00243618], [0.01009323, 0.02927247, 0.01821366, ..., 0.02053499, 0.00563092, 0.00300296], [0.01062727, 0.02716562, 0.01831044, ..., 0.01988526, 0.00630639, 0.00357451]], [[0.01218236, 0.0298169 , 0.01752495, ..., 0.02277881, 0.00712685, 0.00395938], [0.01187191, 0.02882949, 0.01546112, ..., 0.02247013, 0.0068207 , 0.0037092 ], [0.00853876, 0.02670486, 0.01725144, ..., 0.0179944 , 0.00467656, 0.00245585], ... [0.01203097, 0.02727691, 0.01732937, ..., 0.02125244, 0.00736556, 0.00428514], [0.01203097, 0.02727691, 0.01732937, ..., 0.02125244, 0.00736556, 0.00428514], [0.01203097, 0.02727691, 0.01732937, ..., 0.02125244, 0.00736556, 0.00428514]], [[0.01053048, 0.02952233, 0.01476158, ..., 0.02185965, 0.0056697 , 0.00289742], [0.01227602, 0.02645612, 0.01761346, ..., 0.0208973 , 0.00774246, 0.00464328], [0.00951083, 0.02742819, 0.01536137, ..., 0.01964462, 0.00519968, 0.00270899], ..., [0.01177823, 0.02812039, 0.01652989, ..., 0.02171776, 0.00695229, 0.00389425], [0.01183791, 0.02850751, 0.01661617, ..., 0.02196688, 0.00695257, 0.00387479], [0.01183231, 0.02805573, 0.01677893, ..., 0.02166658, 0.00702901, 0.00396408]]], dtype=float32) - incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty(chain, draw, incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty_dim_0)float32
array([], shape=(4, 250, 0), dtype=float32)
- incidence_2024_25(chain, draw, date_ranges_2024_25)float320.01337 0.02013 ... 0.01794 0.02346
array([[[0.01337156, 0.02013451, 0.02452599, ..., 0.01817502, 0.01781074, 0.02216012], [0.01355433, 0.02001933, 0.02512912, ..., 0.01867808, 0.01748167, 0.0222942 ], [0.01232319, 0.02005403, 0.02445844, ..., 0.01725143, 0.01764236, 0.02214119], ..., [0.01491069, 0.01972998, 0.02424038, ..., 0.01942476, 0.01752046, 0.02169988], [0.01369539, 0.02015129, 0.02498547, ..., 0.01868538, 0.0177027 , 0.02232468], [0.01389076, 0.02106619, 0.02606801, ..., 0.01913856, 0.01848892, 0.02334272]], [[0.01180426, 0.02291314, 0.02673703, ..., 0.01710097, 0.02034889, 0.02499062], [0.01189217, 0.02021773, 0.02314041, ..., 0.01619996, 0.01828352, 0.02177074], [0.01465465, 0.01868768, 0.02258935, ..., 0.01860677, 0.01676045, 0.02039146], ... [0.01202311, 0.0211806 , 0.02613879, ..., 0.01746226, 0.0184359 , 0.02356447], [0.01202311, 0.0211806 , 0.02613879, ..., 0.01746226, 0.0184359 , 0.02356447], [0.01202311, 0.0211806 , 0.02613879, ..., 0.01746226, 0.0184359 , 0.02356447]], [[0.01410453, 0.01830225, 0.02294874, ..., 0.01850556, 0.01611653, 0.02028669], [0.01271932, 0.02000519, 0.02320744, ..., 0.01698724, 0.01806432, 0.02160624], [0.01406058, 0.0193067 , 0.02556003, ..., 0.01957837, 0.01652294, 0.02192229], ..., [0.01313996, 0.02044266, 0.02557632, ..., 0.01841411, 0.01782095, 0.02277462], [0.0130825 , 0.02093484, 0.02641956, ..., 0.01863315, 0.01814439, 0.02342878], [0.01332133, 0.02083478, 0.02673461, ..., 0.01903263, 0.01794471, 0.02345868]]], dtype=float32) - incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty(chain, draw, incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0)float32
array([], shape=(4, 250, 0), dtype=float32)
- m_2022_23(chain, draw)float32-0.4974 -0.4786 ... -0.5602 -0.5518
array([[-0.49738163, -0.47855425, -0.51753247, -0.409651 , -0.43512994, -0.45819122, -0.41531768, -0.5427082 , -0.41718516, -0.59399736, -0.62136996, -0.428485 , -0.47021005, -0.5507725 , -0.5319496 , -0.5319496 , -0.41272405, -0.5728446 , -0.5641149 , -0.5466863 , -0.56450266, -0.6167471 , -0.58443713, -0.5905677 , -0.5905677 , -0.5217507 , -0.49092633, -0.55534333, -0.54808027, -0.574019 , -0.69255716, -0.44452512, -0.4828753 , -0.56039524, -0.53392696, -0.56914383, -0.451609 , -0.52224594, -0.5462983 , -0.4246802 , -0.4269255 , -0.43472138, -0.6100037 , -0.39322472, -0.38507012, -0.45561227, -0.3726687 , -0.44484782, -0.5521719 , -0.50285035, -0.5212145 , -0.59965026, -0.4423395 , -0.4423395 , -0.50282484, -0.5072955 , -0.46988174, -0.42814913, -0.43431938, -0.45004904, -0.43180138, -0.41719013, -0.4728249 , -0.5017634 , -0.50362027, -0.51447785, -0.5467823 , -0.3275453 , -0.54427165, -0.55728614, -0.58062494, -0.44344336, -0.5234842 , -0.5053073 , -0.52936274, -0.5169563 , -0.5132713 , -0.48894337, -0.49137238, -0.47022912, -0.4699764 , -0.44239917, -0.43619424, -0.48540512, -0.48343486, -0.5377584 , -0.48401168, -0.6004964 , -0.40443575, -0.45121783, -0.580262 , -0.4231525 , -0.43176922, -0.6058405 , -0.5820228 , -0.5820228 , -0.5820228 , -0.41573828, -0.5821193 , -0.58725834, ... -0.5819829 , -0.47366664, -0.45504272, -0.54884785, -0.52923924, -0.50843984, -0.5387828 , -0.498685 , -0.48981592, -0.5162074 , -0.5495801 , -0.509206 , -0.35665873, -0.5632204 , -0.51584345, -0.5237846 , -0.44276783, -0.39689675, -0.435154 , -0.48584056, -0.5141748 , -0.59064054, -0.55015486, -0.5817663 , -0.36074674, -0.554867 , -0.5713795 , -0.5181294 , -0.5720738 , -0.6547155 , -0.48428512, -0.49571288, -0.50093484, -0.53195 , -0.44099298, -0.4553876 , -0.6935597 , -0.59925896, -0.59631103, -0.485506 , -0.41023943, -0.39228866, -0.3884756 , -0.4511259 , -0.33538094, -0.32696238, -0.32283267, -0.49179545, -0.43756765, -0.4828226 , -0.37830344, -0.39332283, -0.360532 , -0.49998966, -0.4520983 , -0.43761057, -0.42913753, -0.53204554, -0.52379894, -0.549221 , -0.48835382, -0.5456271 , -0.48869875, -0.60115653, -0.62292093, -0.62098557, -0.6176036 , -0.5063573 , -0.49502096, -0.61157113, -0.48734203, -0.6953203 , -0.5376403 , -0.53130573, -0.59203154, -0.3992948 , -0.41368565, -0.3931968 , -0.4015265 , -0.37499157, -0.4895042 , -0.54461133, -0.49656075, -0.49032715, -0.4473834 , -0.5515701 , -0.5334578 , -0.45143813, -0.4920602 , -0.44474632, -0.48513377, -0.5035903 , -0.5601264 , -0.5602284 , -0.55177057]], dtype=float32) - m_2022_23_daily(chain, draw, days_2022_23)float32-0.4974 -0.4974 ... -0.5518 -0.5518
array([[[-0.49738163, -0.49738163, -0.49738163, ..., -0.49738163, -0.49738163, -0.49738163], [-0.47855425, -0.47855425, -0.47855425, ..., -0.47855425, -0.47855425, -0.47855425], [-0.51753247, -0.51753247, -0.51753247, ..., -0.51753247, -0.51753247, -0.51753247], ..., [-0.57851636, -0.57851636, -0.57851636, ..., -0.57851636, -0.57851636, -0.57851636], [-0.54014975, -0.54014975, -0.54014975, ..., -0.54014975, -0.54014975, -0.54014975], [-0.5804585 , -0.5804585 , -0.5804585 , ..., -0.5804585 , -0.5804585 , -0.5804585 ]], [[-0.5477426 , -0.5477426 , -0.5477426 , ..., -0.5477426 , -0.5477426 , -0.5477426 ], [-0.43735296, -0.43735296, -0.43735296, ..., -0.43735296, -0.43735296, -0.43735296], [-0.31916413, -0.31916413, -0.31916413, ..., -0.31916413, -0.31916413, -0.31916413], ... [-0.49464446, -0.49464446, -0.49464446, ..., -0.49464446, -0.49464446, -0.49464446], [-0.49464446, -0.49464446, -0.49464446, ..., -0.49464446, -0.49464446, -0.49464446], [-0.49464446, -0.49464446, -0.49464446, ..., -0.49464446, -0.49464446, -0.49464446]], [[-0.3229709 , -0.3229709 , -0.3229709 , ..., -0.3229709 , -0.3229709 , -0.3229709 ], [-0.5713311 , -0.5713311 , -0.5713311 , ..., -0.5713311 , -0.5713311 , -0.5713311 ], [-0.42704353, -0.42704353, -0.42704353, ..., -0.42704353, -0.42704353, -0.42704353], ..., [-0.5601264 , -0.5601264 , -0.5601264 , ..., -0.5601264 , -0.5601264 , -0.5601264 ], [-0.5602284 , -0.5602284 , -0.5602284 , ..., -0.5602284 , -0.5602284 , -0.5602284 ], [-0.55177057, -0.55177057, -0.55177057, ..., -0.55177057, -0.55177057, -0.55177057]]], dtype=float32) - m_2023_24(chain, draw)float32-0.6507 -0.6611 ... -0.6051 -0.6031
array([[-0.6506679 , -0.6611174 , -0.63674974, -0.71017843, -0.7520865 , -0.7412469 , -0.6810999 , -0.68963397, -0.78744256, -0.7715309 , -0.8072271 , -0.62697065, -0.61450267, -0.5561474 , -0.55457175, -0.55457175, -0.6595102 , -0.6466591 , -0.641958 , -0.58865756, -0.5912371 , -0.6055729 , -0.62648 , -0.6427563 , -0.6427563 , -0.66480726, -0.66877645, -0.68808484, -0.6622341 , -0.7434212 , -0.633345 , -0.6165113 , -0.60710305, -0.6716679 , -0.66135854, -0.60848737, -0.6525846 , -0.64908844, -0.6231476 , -0.6180262 , -0.6280081 , -0.5927647 , -0.6112943 , -0.7128202 , -0.7253299 , -0.7204825 , -0.8400814 , -0.70713985, -0.7429867 , -0.70615935, -0.6951822 , -0.7073482 , -0.64497375, -0.64497375, -0.6582558 , -0.6455558 , -0.6567509 , -0.85216993, -0.7970569 , -0.5623074 , -0.57049173, -0.57297 , -0.5458971 , -0.6219085 , -0.71081805, -0.5797387 , -0.68973845, -0.66235805, -0.6811475 , -0.6858479 , -0.73908144, -0.710563 , -0.7489323 , -0.70698047, -0.77237767, -0.7726058 , -0.7966426 , -0.78017735, -0.71813303, -0.6798035 , -0.7231322 , -0.7000585 , -0.69448555, -0.6501327 , -0.6158046 , -0.6995356 , -0.709007 , -0.71264887, -0.75980836, -0.54613185, -0.6065289 , -0.7752313 , -0.67793834, -0.7067611 , -0.671539 , -0.671539 , -0.671539 , -0.5464277 , -0.636445 , -0.66512877, ... -0.5158243 , -0.7260843 , -0.70715994, -0.7305723 , -0.75639015, -0.7017835 , -0.6782224 , -0.6870145 , -0.6995094 , -0.6822444 , -0.70448774, -0.7093493 , -0.6828293 , -0.7049697 , -0.7523306 , -0.62825024, -0.63557327, -0.77068305, -0.6890475 , -0.7668892 , -0.65557194, -0.6069143 , -0.64276934, -0.73383874, -0.713777 , -0.61298084, -0.68842983, -0.67993474, -0.71298075, -0.6705914 , -0.6851987 , -0.7468817 , -0.7396359 , -0.7843457 , -0.6740788 , -0.6573951 , -0.63575524, -0.79004115, -0.6812679 , -0.75882876, -0.7018107 , -0.70358247, -0.6408127 , -0.67515725, -0.74672854, -0.78953564, -0.7428181 , -0.6718568 , -0.70830363, -0.7498009 , -0.6483027 , -0.5182572 , -0.6296981 , -0.56311214, -0.7997818 , -0.5934589 , -0.6129578 , -0.67564815, -0.69485146, -0.65318745, -0.7122202 , -0.66484565, -0.70496166, -0.6639458 , -0.6219766 , -0.6419181 , -0.6334219 , -0.7245077 , -0.6914577 , -0.65641683, -0.5595776 , -0.5277951 , -0.6254952 , -0.5584586 , -0.5968064 , -0.4910815 , -0.49303517, -0.70682174, -0.62915105, -0.62283224, -0.65303123, -0.73727083, -0.74121237, -0.61036247, -0.60865563, -0.740458 , -0.64191085, -0.5400141 , -0.6834181 , -0.58508664, -0.61542314, -0.6334455 , -0.6155328 , -0.60508925, -0.603126 ]], dtype=float32) - m_2023_24_daily(chain, draw, days_2023_24)float32-0.6507 -0.6507 ... -0.6031 -0.6031
array([[[-0.6506679 , -0.6506679 , -0.6506679 , ..., -0.6506679 , -0.6506679 , -0.6506679 ], [-0.6611174 , -0.6611174 , -0.6611174 , ..., -0.6611174 , -0.6611174 , -0.6611174 ], [-0.63674974, -0.63674974, -0.63674974, ..., -0.63674974, -0.63674974, -0.63674974], ..., [-0.7977064 , -0.7977064 , -0.7977064 , ..., -0.7977064 , -0.7977064 , -0.7977064 ], [-0.61614513, -0.61614513, -0.61614513, ..., -0.61614513, -0.61614513, -0.61614513], [-0.60568917, -0.60568917, -0.60568917, ..., -0.60568917, -0.60568917, -0.60568917]], [[-0.5382099 , -0.5382099 , -0.5382099 , ..., -0.5382099 , -0.5382099 , -0.5382099 ], [-0.6461379 , -0.6461379 , -0.6461379 , ..., -0.6461379 , -0.6461379 , -0.6461379 ], [-0.7628142 , -0.7628142 , -0.7628142 , ..., -0.7628142 , -0.7628142 , -0.7628142 ], ... [-0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , ..., -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 ], [-0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , ..., -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 ], [-0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , ..., -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 , -0.5753273 ]], [[-0.7217566 , -0.7217566 , -0.7217566 , ..., -0.7217566 , -0.7217566 , -0.7217566 ], [-0.5524792 , -0.5524792 , -0.5524792 , ..., -0.5524792 , -0.5524792 , -0.5524792 ], [-0.77889746, -0.77889746, -0.77889746, ..., -0.77889746, -0.77889746, -0.77889746], ..., [-0.6155328 , -0.6155328 , -0.6155328 , ..., -0.6155328 , -0.6155328 , -0.6155328 ], [-0.60508925, -0.60508925, -0.60508925, ..., -0.60508925, -0.60508925, -0.60508925], [-0.603126 , -0.603126 , -0.603126 , ..., -0.603126 , -0.603126 , -0.603126 ]]], dtype=float32) - m_2024_25(chain, draw)float32-0.4686 -0.4838 ... -0.4811 -0.4785
array([[-0.4685821 , -0.48383686, -0.5431301 , -0.510751 , -0.5558118 , -0.5499654 , -0.48492685, -0.41701752, -0.4627414 , -0.5417757 , -0.5585559 , -0.50332373, -0.5335061 , -0.5225483 , -0.55315274, -0.55315274, -0.5089273 , -0.47833505, -0.60100806, -0.52706844, -0.52472067, -0.63094026, -0.4750478 , -0.57636297, -0.57636297, -0.5300387 , -0.5313156 , -0.47130623, -0.50801176, -0.6247171 , -0.6041693 , -0.6224765 , -0.45419082, -0.6713474 , -0.4525221 , -0.5740198 , -0.34588686, -0.35824284, -0.5291692 , -0.48759717, -0.5000363 , -0.51193064, -0.5360789 , -0.5001096 , -0.49357536, -0.6571627 , -0.6839548 , -0.42086005, -0.6269 , -0.4837202 , -0.48100108, -0.5551631 , -0.40770406, -0.40770406, -0.46562764, -0.40134037, -0.45471838, -0.57761407, -0.5028555 , -0.44758803, -0.45261312, -0.4344314 , -0.48775464, -0.5716372 , -0.47833484, -0.37466004, -0.58983827, -0.36504868, -0.44841695, -0.43324935, -0.530172 , -0.5406369 , -0.51669836, -0.5103756 , -0.54476595, -0.53223586, -0.5296823 , -0.46862602, -0.50403374, -0.57935387, -0.5537838 , -0.48051044, -0.46833995, -0.46760815, -0.5118345 , -0.5580498 , -0.57251716, -0.43108693, -0.32992402, -0.44063944, -0.50896037, -0.6514574 , -0.63041854, -0.45713887, -0.43551296, -0.43551296, -0.43551296, -0.52619666, -0.3834546 , -0.41562775, ... -0.49511346, -0.51193357, -0.5562741 , -0.53170466, -0.67776036, -0.5735382 , -0.48321608, -0.4731656 , -0.5709449 , -0.4834693 , -0.46145976, -0.51482266, -0.4326178 , -0.48797995, -0.55124265, -0.52113473, -0.37590572, -0.53413874, -0.4505815 , -0.41343567, -0.4512725 , -0.49231648, -0.43256402, -0.45579708, -0.42393088, -0.4261084 , -0.611541 , -0.4720149 , -0.48543003, -0.6012716 , -0.4480487 , -0.47272685, -0.5676925 , -0.54185843, -0.4934639 , -0.523233 , -0.51575124, -0.57270217, -0.5178252 , -0.43402344, -0.5424217 , -0.52974653, -0.46245554, -0.44963783, -0.48459458, -0.49211463, -0.4590027 , -0.4264555 , -0.3940025 , -0.5568508 , -0.4483293 , -0.34200174, -0.39724654, -0.47758934, -0.44707352, -0.33530635, -0.28240108, -0.58919555, -0.566521 , -0.49747995, -0.5733044 , -0.3529668 , -0.4834225 , -0.40417272, -0.56207424, -0.49030253, -0.51972884, -0.53923106, -0.55129266, -0.48938096, -0.48284438, -0.3851985 , -0.51251477, -0.6260978 , -0.43026972, -0.4754395 , -0.47912595, -0.37339437, -0.56777847, -0.5362858 , -0.41871262, -0.5096803 , -0.3911086 , -0.5257093 , -0.5654252 , -0.47511086, -0.52456003, -0.5662454 , -0.4532373 , -0.43374854, -0.5185857 , -0.4755472 , -0.49187234, -0.48111704, -0.4785126 ]], dtype=float32) - m_2024_25_daily(chain, draw, days_2024_25)float32-0.4686 -0.4686 ... -0.4785 -0.4785
array([[[-0.4685821 , -0.4685821 , -0.4685821 , ..., -0.4685821 , -0.4685821 , -0.4685821 ], [-0.48383686, -0.48383686, -0.48383686, ..., -0.48383686, -0.48383686, -0.48383686], [-0.5431301 , -0.5431301 , -0.5431301 , ..., -0.5431301 , -0.5431301 , -0.5431301 ], ..., [-0.3846375 , -0.3846375 , -0.3846375 , ..., -0.3846375 , -0.3846375 , -0.3846375 ], [-0.46096885, -0.46096885, -0.46096885, ..., -0.46096885, -0.46096885, -0.46096885], [-0.41340694, -0.41340694, -0.41340694, ..., -0.41340694, -0.41340694, -0.41340694]], [[-0.44042572, -0.44042572, -0.44042572, ..., -0.44042572, -0.44042572, -0.44042572], [-0.51044434, -0.51044434, -0.51044434, ..., -0.51044434, -0.51044434, -0.51044434], [-0.41457978, -0.41457978, -0.41457978, ..., -0.41457978, -0.41457978, -0.41457978], ... [-0.52599823, -0.52599823, -0.52599823, ..., -0.52599823, -0.52599823, -0.52599823], [-0.52599823, -0.52599823, -0.52599823, ..., -0.52599823, -0.52599823, -0.52599823], [-0.52599823, -0.52599823, -0.52599823, ..., -0.52599823, -0.52599823, -0.52599823]], [[-0.5091384 , -0.5091384 , -0.5091384 , ..., -0.5091384 , -0.5091384 , -0.5091384 ], [-0.46915114, -0.46915114, -0.46915114, ..., -0.46915114, -0.46915114, -0.46915114], [-0.5099993 , -0.5099993 , -0.5099993 , ..., -0.5099993 , -0.5099993 , -0.5099993 ], ..., [-0.49187234, -0.49187234, -0.49187234, ..., -0.49187234, -0.49187234, -0.49187234], [-0.48111704, -0.48111704, -0.48111704, ..., -0.48111704, -0.48111704, -0.48111704], [-0.4785126 , -0.4785126 , -0.4785126 , ..., -0.4785126 , -0.4785126 , -0.4785126 ]]], dtype=float32) - observation_mean(chain, draw, observation)float320.01589 0.01852 ... 0.005287
array([[[0.01588706, 0.0185173 , 0.02102098, ..., 0.00915746, 0.0074303 , 0.00596912], [0.01576706, 0.01840783, 0.020943 , ..., 0.00911455, 0.00732132, 0.00582063], [0.01666968, 0.01948369, 0.02211552, ..., 0.00818913, 0.00654747, 0.0051849 ], ..., [0.01387064, 0.01642753, 0.01897463, ..., 0.01065441, 0.00882403, 0.00723087], [0.01589905, 0.01899056, 0.02199966, ..., 0.00931945, 0.00753291, 0.00602691], [0.01543336, 0.01853039, 0.02156772, ..., 0.00936156, 0.00753206, 0.00599945]], [[0.01510987, 0.01767154, 0.02013592, ..., 0.00762296, 0.00601999, 0.00471396], [0.01672714, 0.01950706, 0.02214209, ..., 0.00819672, 0.00668751, 0.00540806], [0.01918834, 0.02178215, 0.02407684, ..., 0.0107842 , 0.00906922, 0.00754704], ... [0.01541647, 0.01813703, 0.02078508, ..., 0.00768855, 0.00603147, 0.00468794], [0.01541647, 0.01813703, 0.02078508, ..., 0.00768855, 0.00603147, 0.00468794], [0.01541647, 0.01813703, 0.02078508, ..., 0.00768855, 0.00603147, 0.00468794]], [[0.01741025, 0.01980062, 0.022005 , ..., 0.00997327, 0.00821028, 0.00668536], [0.01658358, 0.01931177, 0.02182134, ..., 0.00893164, 0.00735083, 0.00599391], [0.0160409 , 0.01878555, 0.02144297, ..., 0.00928368, 0.00737592, 0.00579585], ..., [0.01462002, 0.01742902, 0.02021708, ..., 0.00869168, 0.00692708, 0.00546582], [0.01459237, 0.01741956, 0.02023157, ..., 0.00850426, 0.00671879, 0.00525594], [0.01435478, 0.01722964, 0.02012437, ..., 0.00861257, 0.00678237, 0.00528741]]], dtype=float32) - observation_sim(chain, draw, observation)float320.01384 0.01857 ... 0.005989
array([[[0.01383857, 0.01857029, 0.02510813, ..., 0.00978097, 0.00800698, 0.00605945], [0.01813129, 0.01929692, 0.02062262, ..., 0.00790283, 0.00560994, 0.00832618], [0.01632413, 0.01745849, 0.02167443, ..., 0.0092455 , 0.00693868, 0.00390263], ..., [0.01153356, 0.01402493, 0.02184891, ..., 0.0074547 , 0.01169933, 0.00569476], [0.01425018, 0.01726689, 0.01878398, ..., 0.00742281, 0.01086826, 0.00801862], [0.01480659, 0.01601072, 0.02183779, ..., 0.00393756, 0.00630488, 0.0054426 ]], [[0.0142495 , 0.01871205, 0.01866633, ..., 0.00850558, 0.00506474, 0.00369172], [0.01885034, 0.01811346, 0.01923398, ..., 0.00596291, 0.00517441, 0.00371551], [0.02523754, 0.02367543, 0.02613179, ..., 0.01136129, 0.00615829, 0.00421316], ... [0.01706051, 0.01796845, 0.01603559, ..., 0.01132151, 0.0092003 , 0.00387393], [0.01498317, 0.01880712, 0.02203123, ..., 0.00693994, 0.00749297, 0.00497406], [0.01432498, 0.01538055, 0.0172967 , ..., 0.00693162, 0.00638471, 0.00499944]], [[0.01209019, 0.02238668, 0.02148687, ..., 0.01014602, 0.00853068, 0.00207822], [0.01918529, 0.02383827, 0.0230173 , ..., 0.00803143, 0.01113712, 0.00567879], [0.01762837, 0.01757863, 0.02151315, ..., 0.01005575, 0.007676 , 0.00306814], ..., [0.01076092, 0.01846941, 0.02211753, ..., 0.0065103 , 0.00754432, 0.00727756], [0.01439214, 0.0186107 , 0.01946053, ..., 0.0068652 , 0.01095988, 0.00733764], [0.01812374, 0.01786066, 0.02053188, ..., 0.01083322, 0.00731126, 0.00598908]]], dtype=float32) - r_2022_23(chain, draw)float32-3.256 -3.26 ... -3.196 -3.188
array([[-3.2563078, -3.2603617, -3.2150767, -3.3446667, -3.234073 , -3.2213757, -3.2493515, -3.2702866, -3.2297006, -3.1251886, -3.163106 , -3.3129303, -3.2830722, -3.1892676, -3.1301398, -3.1301398, -3.2433813, -3.1907735, -3.226314 , -3.173911 , -3.1573186, -3.1985781, -3.1971223, -3.1949565, -3.1949565, -3.142221 , -3.260662 , -3.206724 , -3.1885865, -3.1831784, -3.0797267, -3.311841 , -3.2394102, -3.1957417, -3.1944938, -3.1526349, -3.2183163, -3.2800026, -3.2464347, -3.2408469, -3.2623303, -3.2963603, -3.1711059, -3.2673619, -3.2932496, -3.30141 , -3.3078308, -3.2467735, -3.2006314, -3.2180314, -3.2308366, -3.2076735, -3.3220816, -3.3220816, -3.2804267, -3.2485623, -3.237534 , -3.2696772, -3.290358 , -3.2339938, -3.2363334, -3.270139 , -3.1994247, -3.2109003, -3.2750146, -3.229703 , -3.1913216, -3.3711305, -3.228032 , -3.2264242, -3.191339 , -3.2713025, -3.2264056, -3.204757 , -3.2482564, -3.2402864, -3.2216988, -3.2478597, -3.2914054, -3.2116308, -3.2270648, -3.23462 , -3.2596288, -3.2204676, -3.2495885, -3.2170246, -3.2670436, -3.1406064, -3.40464 , -3.1929111, -3.229786 , -3.2536676, -3.270294 , -3.1214697, -3.1294947, -3.1294947, -3.1294947, -3.2579892, -3.1862247, -3.189275 , ... -3.230357 , -3.2064898, -3.253551 , -3.2260568, -3.2367034, -3.232541 , -3.2359595, -3.2256417, -3.2396185, -3.2253811, -3.1984286, -3.2340984, -3.3437974, -3.1984758, -3.200041 , -3.2267478, -3.2758899, -3.3201742, -3.2892642, -3.2277896, -3.2316632, -3.1557884, -3.1883667, -3.2425623, -3.284001 , -3.1612597, -3.1832333, -3.1264384, -3.1323304, -3.198118 , -3.170215 , -3.2620227, -3.2628284, -3.1884692, -3.2510276, -3.2841365, -3.1347678, -3.1588545, -3.1737185, -3.2169213, -3.2849667, -3.3742983, -3.2844777, -3.2722883, -3.3677027, -3.3335176, -3.3584313, -3.2411034, -3.26482 , -3.2187994, -3.3603227, -3.3623085, -3.3173206, -3.253619 , -3.2974303, -3.241114 , -3.2906268, -3.2116585, -3.2054613, -3.25106 , -3.2039847, -3.285981 , -3.2185278, -3.1958306, -3.2235265, -3.1819448, -3.1955981, -3.1613374, -3.3163705, -3.183334 , -3.166879 , -3.1522105, -3.1806564, -3.1676388, -3.173741 , -3.3093495, -3.3241498, -3.2809954, -3.3493373, -3.344551 , -3.1758285, -3.20735 , -3.2305 , -3.2404761, -3.2589333, -3.2348015, -3.250782 , -3.2908952, -3.2572603, -3.2608972, -3.2775378, -3.2611573, -3.200091 , -3.1963549, -3.1875749]], dtype=float32) - r_2022_23_daily(chain, draw, days_2022_23)float32-3.256 -3.256 ... -3.188 -3.188
array([[[-3.2563078, -3.2563078, -3.2563078, ..., -3.2563078, -3.2563078, -3.2563078], [-3.2603617, -3.2603617, -3.2603617, ..., -3.2603617, -3.2603617, -3.2603617], [-3.2150767, -3.2150767, -3.2150767, ..., -3.2150767, -3.2150767, -3.2150767], ..., [-3.241156 , -3.241156 , -3.241156 , ..., -3.241156 , -3.241156 , -3.241156 ], [-3.160643 , -3.160643 , -3.160643 , ..., -3.160643 , -3.160643 , -3.160643 ], [-3.1458163, -3.1458163, -3.1458163, ..., -3.1458163, -3.1458163, -3.1458163]], [[-3.2538817, -3.2538817, -3.2538817, ..., -3.2538817, -3.2538817, -3.2538817], [-3.2468655, -3.2468655, -3.2468655, ..., -3.2468655, -3.2468655, -3.2468655], [-3.3013194, -3.3013194, -3.3013194, ..., -3.3013194, -3.3013194, -3.3013194], ... [-3.2398367, -3.2398367, -3.2398367, ..., -3.2398367, -3.2398367, -3.2398367], [-3.2398367, -3.2398367, -3.2398367, ..., -3.2398367, -3.2398367, -3.2398367], [-3.2398367, -3.2398367, -3.2398367, ..., -3.2398367, -3.2398367, -3.2398367]], [[-3.3510995, -3.3510995, -3.3510995, ..., -3.3510995, -3.3510995, -3.3510995], [-3.2115428, -3.2115428, -3.2115428, ..., -3.2115428, -3.2115428, -3.2115428], [-3.2566326, -3.2566326, -3.2566326, ..., -3.2566326, -3.2566326, -3.2566326], ..., [-3.200091 , -3.200091 , -3.200091 , ..., -3.200091 , -3.200091 , -3.200091 ], [-3.1963549, -3.1963549, -3.1963549, ..., -3.1963549, -3.1963549, -3.1963549], [-3.1875749, -3.1875749, -3.1875749, ..., -3.1875749, -3.1875749, -3.1875749]]], dtype=float32) - r_2023_24(chain, draw)float32-3.056 -3.057 ... -3.073 -3.09
array([[-3.055761 , -3.0570774, -3.0377164, -2.9650164, -3.029687 , -3.0271733, -3.0354457, -3.0412729, -2.9505253, -2.9968212, -2.9714453, -3.0882087, -3.0682285, -3.1217659, -3.1176271, -3.1176271, -3.0292878, -3.019709 , -3.042617 , -3.1664364, -3.1430902, -3.151422 , -3.0826135, -3.0875618, -3.0875618, -3.0789595, -3.0741918, -3.0086439, -2.9876976, -3.1049895, -3.0269032, -3.116951 , -3.0617583, -3.0916488, -3.0159497, -3.092374 , -3.0691469, -3.0541759, -3.0712478, -3.1296244, -3.0928802, -3.1430118, -3.0937502, -2.9815888, -3.0095546, -3.0016994, -2.942178 , -3.0160666, -2.9907823, -3.0188808, -3.0220263, -3.0321183, -3.0544903, -3.0544903, -3.0646946, -3.0897515, -3.1172264, -2.9087934, -2.9211457, -3.1526854, -3.1604521, -3.1748688, -3.1634004, -3.1248863, -3.0290005, -3.0987866, -3.0872018, -3.0821097, -3.009844 , -3.0167434, -3.0239248, -2.953128 , -3.0589294, -2.9413118, -3.0095057, -3.0045116, -2.988325 , -2.9713914, -3.0219307, -3.010177 , -3.0820594, -3.0652187, -3.0543892, -3.0962734, -3.066174 , -3.0242949, -2.9464328, -3.0664208, -3.020311 , -3.1078084, -3.0748045, -3.0191076, -3.0085096, -3.0719123, -3.096836 , -3.096836 , -3.096836 , -3.122919 , -3.1062047, -3.125735 , ... -3.1840134, -2.9569526, -3.0137699, -3.0138931, -2.968347 , -3.056166 , -2.9857047, -3.0581758, -3.051701 , -3.0124722, -3.068086 , -2.9627302, -3.0362937, -3.0104072, -2.9812932, -3.0181432, -3.096097 , -2.9462383, -2.9969265, -3.0195827, -3.06749 , -3.1161797, -3.1042295, -2.979103 , -2.977905 , -2.9985955, -3.079853 , -3.1042686, -3.0576797, -3.0162272, -3.0618165, -3.002222 , -2.9619458, -3.0001352, -3.0418582, -2.9741347, -3.0529044, -2.9865694, -3.0404284, -2.970011 , -3.0384448, -3.0469959, -3.043901 , -3.0831327, -2.9675317, -2.9984853, -3.049653 , -3.07294 , -3.0088146, -2.975524 , -3.0663393, -3.0778887, -3.1622329, -3.0964105, -3.0004992, -3.0356836, -3.0900736, -2.9761832, -3.0107515, -3.0321329, -3.0655746, -3.0318274, -3.0536962, -3.0671225, -3.036538 , -3.0560472, -3.0665538, -3.0502253, -2.9938505, -3.0618951, -3.1189015, -3.2098176, -3.0851872, -3.0893593, -3.1732485, -3.1501966, -3.1469715, -2.9881792, -3.0997877, -3.073487 , -3.0630465, -2.9889176, -2.982903 , -3.0618556, -3.06508 , -3.0212507, -3.1741178, -3.1342258, -3.0991573, -3.0744703, -3.1337585, -3.153429 , -3.0796533, -3.072798 , -3.0895903]], dtype=float32) - r_2023_24_daily(chain, draw, days_2023_24)float32-3.056 -3.056 ... -3.09 -3.09
array([[[-3.055761 , -3.055761 , -3.055761 , ..., -3.055761 , -3.055761 , -3.055761 ], [-3.0570774, -3.0570774, -3.0570774, ..., -3.0570774, -3.0570774, -3.0570774], [-3.0377164, -3.0377164, -3.0377164, ..., -3.0377164, -3.0377164, -3.0377164], ..., [-3.0136378, -3.0136378, -3.0136378, ..., -3.0136378, -3.0136378, -3.0136378], [-3.0264823, -3.0264823, -3.0264823, ..., -3.0264823, -3.0264823, -3.0264823], [-3.1082044, -3.1082044, -3.1082044, ..., -3.1082044, -3.1082044, -3.1082044]], [[-3.06992 , -3.06992 , -3.06992 , ..., -3.06992 , -3.06992 , -3.06992 ], [-3.0361001, -3.0361001, -3.0361001, ..., -3.0361001, -3.0361001, -3.0361001], [-3.0108602, -3.0108602, -3.0108602, ..., -3.0108602, -3.0108602, -3.0108602], ... [-3.1344779, -3.1344779, -3.1344779, ..., -3.1344779, -3.1344779, -3.1344779], [-3.1344779, -3.1344779, -3.1344779, ..., -3.1344779, -3.1344779, -3.1344779], [-3.1344779, -3.1344779, -3.1344779, ..., -3.1344779, -3.1344779, -3.1344779]], [[-2.9613326, -2.9613326, -2.9613326, ..., -2.9613326, -2.9613326, -2.9613326], [-3.1790419, -3.1790419, -3.1790419, ..., -3.1790419, -3.1790419, -3.1790419], [-2.9913137, -2.9913137, -2.9913137, ..., -2.9913137, -2.9913137, -2.9913137], ..., [-3.0796533, -3.0796533, -3.0796533, ..., -3.0796533, -3.0796533, -3.0796533], [-3.072798 , -3.072798 , -3.072798 , ..., -3.072798 , -3.072798 , -3.072798 ], [-3.0895903, -3.0895903, -3.0895903, ..., -3.0895903, -3.0895903, -3.0895903]]], dtype=float32) - r_2024_25(chain, draw)float32-3.306 -3.268 ... -3.223 -3.21
array([[-3.3062248, -3.2683883, -3.2646267, -3.2656858, -3.2271109, -3.251239 , -3.3210692, -3.295354 , -3.3214169, -3.167334 , -3.2320647, -3.2718754, -3.3077393, -3.1982238, -3.2321541, -3.2321541, -3.1607473, -3.250853 , -3.1876128, -3.1806405, -3.1776876, -3.2648692, -3.2662857, -3.2722192, -3.2722192, -3.2750106, -3.1971793, -3.2307234, -3.2940485, -3.139869 , -3.2111797, -3.2194357, -3.2472055, -3.1783688, -3.2301364, -3.2529871, -3.3507864, -3.4154158, -3.2035701, -3.3025644, -3.2774723, -3.228318 , -3.22894 , -3.2539153, -3.239146 , -3.170326 , -3.207943 , -3.3958218, -3.2301033, -3.2313015, -3.2708185, -3.1553142, -3.2700045, -3.2700045, -3.323064 , -3.3136353, -3.3033633, -3.2025526, -3.2710001, -3.3236842, -3.3279085, -3.3285062, -3.2824183, -3.225908 , -3.2833316, -3.3582513, -3.2198267, -3.2947576, -3.199117 , -3.1784563, -3.1895802, -3.2009506, -3.2671459, -3.2179997, -3.2446444, -3.2464046, -3.2505324, -3.2613509, -3.2667782, -3.1940224, -3.1771464, -3.2524223, -3.2458045, -3.227165 , -3.2523913, -3.1948707, -3.1706047, -3.3049524, -3.3901663, -3.2695584, -3.33138 , -3.174405 , -3.0952115, -3.2666821, -3.254574 , -3.254574 , -3.254574 , -3.2625902, -3.3544695, -3.3825865, ... -3.2646606, -3.229647 , -3.2579062, -3.2170603, -3.1773374, -3.176344 , -3.2808955, -3.257693 , -3.2326455, -3.2427845, -3.306317 , -3.215866 , -3.2969744, -3.3016777, -3.2291534, -3.270132 , -3.3392375, -3.1833286, -3.2512279, -3.3152466, -3.2631521, -3.320369 , -3.2890708, -3.2780519, -3.2847571, -3.262638 , -3.1688426, -3.2473347, -3.195015 , -3.2395046, -3.2133007, -3.1988068, -3.28848 , -3.1547906, -3.2183893, -3.2037377, -3.2310057, -3.2917745, -3.306973 , -3.2493286, -3.2903836, -3.1808078, -3.3321679, -3.2670171, -3.2333574, -3.2294002, -3.2933211, -3.3303943, -3.3549163, -3.1822252, -3.3812976, -3.3265016, -3.422606 , -3.21885 , -3.3800852, -3.431466 , -3.4508684, -3.1994908, -3.2099137, -3.2576566, -3.2215734, -3.410031 , -3.3174994, -3.3156874, -3.2492082, -3.3609998, -3.3370218, -3.1778305, -3.257628 , -3.2148008, -3.38241 , -3.260239 , -3.1952448, -3.249646 , -3.282003 , -3.2184157, -3.2009773, -3.2903826, -3.2891867, -3.1995394, -3.3033292, -3.2307298, -3.390673 , -3.204653 , -3.198529 , -3.294697 , -3.2553425, -3.1503482, -3.3235068, -3.295986 , -3.2620454, -3.2739093, -3.248317 , -3.2226765, -3.209695 ]], dtype=float32) - r_2024_25_daily(chain, draw, days_2024_25)float32-3.306 -3.306 ... -3.21 -3.21
array([[[-3.3062248, -3.3062248, -3.3062248, ..., -3.3062248, -3.3062248, -3.3062248], [-3.2683883, -3.2683883, -3.2683883, ..., -3.2683883, -3.2683883, -3.2683883], [-3.2646267, -3.2646267, -3.2646267, ..., -3.2646267, -3.2646267, -3.2646267], ..., [-3.3616753, -3.3616753, -3.3616753, ..., -3.3616753, -3.3616753, -3.3616753], [-3.2895103, -3.2895103, -3.2895103, ..., -3.2895103, -3.2895103, -3.2895103], [-3.277445 , -3.277445 , -3.277445 , ..., -3.277445 , -3.277445 , -3.277445 ]], [[-3.2422552, -3.2422552, -3.2422552, ..., -3.2422552, -3.2422552, -3.2422552], [-3.3439522, -3.3439522, -3.3439522, ..., -3.3439522, -3.3439522, -3.3439522], [-3.414429 , -3.414429 , -3.414429 , ..., -3.414429 , -3.414429 , -3.414429 ], ... [-3.2098413, -3.2098413, -3.2098413, ..., -3.2098413, -3.2098413, -3.2098413], [-3.2098413, -3.2098413, -3.2098413, ..., -3.2098413, -3.2098413, -3.2098413], [-3.2098413, -3.2098413, -3.2098413, ..., -3.2098413, -3.2098413, -3.2098413]], [[-3.3361442, -3.3361442, -3.3361442, ..., -3.3361442, -3.3361442, -3.3361442], [-3.3658614, -3.3658614, -3.3658614, ..., -3.3658614, -3.3658614, -3.3658614], [-3.2232106, -3.2232106, -3.2232106, ..., -3.2232106, -3.2232106, -3.2232106], ..., [-3.248317 , -3.248317 , -3.248317 , ..., -3.248317 , -3.248317 , -3.248317 ], [-3.2226765, -3.2226765, -3.2226765, ..., -3.2226765, -3.2226765, -3.2226765], [-3.209695 , -3.209695 , -3.209695 , ..., -3.209695 , -3.209695 , -3.209695 ]]], dtype=float32) - s_2022_23(chain, draw)float3240.13 40.93 37.84 ... 42.02 42.79
array([[40.13426 , 40.92761 , 37.837856, 40.14931 , 40.86363 , 40.762993, 37.682285, 41.35884 , 39.48905 , 40.830116, 39.91879 , 41.063084, 39.743984, 41.399895, 41.28053 , 41.28053 , 42.162083, 38.430183, 41.354633, 38.05385 , 37.29995 , 39.61844 , 43.76146 , 40.44592 , 40.44592 , 41.36506 , 36.96751 , 41.827305, 42.04765 , 39.946827, 40.904274, 39.250313, 37.263386, 41.926132, 40.79353 , 39.803352, 40.71224 , 38.629887, 40.990246, 37.172794, 37.24595 , 37.10193 , 43.142166, 37.419407, 37.84085 , 37.63491 , 35.37289 , 39.86962 , 40.170364, 38.893276, 38.386204, 41.750034, 40.488396, 40.488396, 41.729893, 42.06119 , 41.71456 , 36.475544, 41.04422 , 39.034504, 38.872784, 36.527485, 40.17005 , 38.0172 , 38.628838, 38.090424, 39.435425, 37.436882, 39.058758, 38.89971 , 40.579983, 39.53673 , 40.371746, 38.53236 , 41.592335, 41.348137, 41.357975, 40.066177, 38.325886, 38.55714 , 42.379166, 40.6722 , 40.395615, 36.225452, 36.81112 , 41.667187, 39.30422 , 41.72235 , 38.32421 , 40.023903, 39.369404, 40.300835, 39.90138 , 39.903008, 39.45588 , 39.45588 , 39.45588 , 40.02497 , 40.308086, 41.068142, 39.49255 , 41.77989 , 37.857124, 41.152107, 36.090286, 37.383408, 42.07225 , 43.063377, 40.452244, 38.91473 , 38.043858, 39.49824 , 39.033092, 39.542076, 39.162563, 40.43355 , 39.975853, 37.93956 , 37.706966, 43.93316 , ... 38.02411 , 39.938946, 38.2679 , 37.923904, 39.50436 , 44.875835, 41.762527, 43.36041 , 41.177944, 42.69442 , 38.419388, 34.78277 , 39.970768, 39.146164, 43.111492, 38.399647, 39.36542 , 40.176422, 38.4889 , 41.320103, 39.148228, 38.053535, 38.883038, 38.065372, 41.002647, 43.579147, 40.432087, 39.688126, 39.561222, 39.858353, 42.380684, 42.602123, 39.809174, 39.264378, 39.60187 , 36.672245, 39.960617, 39.017612, 42.080463, 41.167213, 36.043186, 36.276024, 42.53486 , 38.155186, 38.713577, 38.793884, 41.42946 , 39.488773, 41.810497, 42.18653 , 42.676907, 41.667526, 43.606915, 42.505047, 43.646492, 40.984306, 38.801136, 39.837082, 40.479256, 42.962147, 42.08104 , 39.03599 , 39.612656, 40.43851 , 39.208447, 39.35301 , 38.78353 , 38.331184, 38.276016, 37.555214, 37.52712 , 40.64211 , 38.71817 , 37.511635, 35.172546, 35.261463, 36.38578 , 40.52005 , 36.631485, 36.952393, 39.885456, 40.52119 , 41.142204, 39.92764 , 36.543705, 41.96322 , 38.868416, 39.34956 , 40.83924 , 40.433624, 38.81096 , 38.100277, 41.294483, 42.465904, 38.862846, 40.391685, 40.54495 , 41.003494, 40.78157 , 40.77038 , 36.727432, 39.314964, 38.07975 , 39.697006, 40.458004, 36.43176 , 40.932747, 40.735455, 37.845314, 42.36272 , 40.88977 , 41.82362 , 39.033787, 38.84397 , 37.881557, 41.95802 , 42.018967, 42.78797 ]], dtype=float32) - s_2022_23_daily(chain, draw, days_2022_23)float3240.13 40.13 40.13 ... 42.79 42.79
array([[[40.13426 , 40.13426 , 40.13426 , ..., 40.13426 , 40.13426 , 40.13426 ], [40.92761 , 40.92761 , 40.92761 , ..., 40.92761 , 40.92761 , 40.92761 ], [37.837856, 37.837856, 37.837856, ..., 37.837856, 37.837856, 37.837856], ..., [43.58215 , 43.58215 , 43.58215 , ..., 43.58215 , 43.58215 , 43.58215 ], [39.303505, 39.303505, 39.303505, ..., 39.303505, 39.303505, 39.303505], [39.446545, 39.446545, 39.446545, ..., 39.446545, 39.446545, 39.446545]], [[40.923386, 40.923386, 40.923386, ..., 40.923386, 40.923386, 40.923386], [39.567352, 39.567352, 39.567352, ..., 39.567352, 39.567352, 39.567352], [35.875416, 35.875416, 35.875416, ..., 35.875416, 35.875416, 35.875416], ... [41.50108 , 41.50108 , 41.50108 , ..., 41.50108 , 41.50108 , 41.50108 ], [41.50108 , 41.50108 , 41.50108 , ..., 41.50108 , 41.50108 , 41.50108 ], [41.50108 , 41.50108 , 41.50108 , ..., 41.50108 , 41.50108 , 41.50108 ]], [[39.8862 , 39.8862 , 39.8862 , ..., 39.8862 , 39.8862 , 39.8862 ], [36.65889 , 36.65889 , 36.65889 , ..., 36.65889 , 36.65889 , 36.65889 ], [41.534893, 41.534893, 41.534893, ..., 41.534893, 41.534893, 41.534893], ..., [41.95802 , 41.95802 , 41.95802 , ..., 41.95802 , 41.95802 , 41.95802 ], [42.018967, 42.018967, 42.018967, ..., 42.018967, 42.018967, 42.018967], [42.78797 , 42.78797 , 42.78797 , ..., 42.78797 , 42.78797 , 42.78797 ]]], dtype=float32) - s_2023_24(chain, draw)float3243.52 42.17 43.92 ... 43.33 43.02
array([[43.519943, 42.169876, 43.91708 , 42.320045, 42.2997 , 42.552032, 43.60729 , 42.44781 , 43.77924 , 42.74606 , 43.02987 , 43.293137, 42.14681 , 41.05255 , 41.469517, 41.469517, 41.92171 , 43.225594, 41.854282, 40.36093 , 40.517582, 40.862404, 41.88284 , 43.076958, 43.076958, 43.300404, 41.89666 , 43.572186, 43.581272, 40.542526, 41.301594, 44.512596, 44.177475, 43.897755, 41.570683, 41.047176, 42.397297, 43.455383, 42.808647, 40.186165, 39.501488, 40.90642 , 43.35037 , 42.225548, 42.400787, 44.22261 , 42.053 , 44.50848 , 41.68731 , 42.53 , 42.687763, 42.818207, 43.200474, 43.200474, 41.60597 , 41.145554, 41.219833, 45.08056 , 42.52332 , 43.19685 , 43.30462 , 40.52822 , 39.998875, 44.41146 , 40.669052, 41.704205, 42.67637 , 42.823277, 41.84572 , 41.98251 , 43.382477, 42.90553 , 40.835346, 45.163666, 42.041645, 42.358135, 41.867496, 42.491554, 42.495358, 44.191795, 42.852745, 42.854572, 42.912933, 42.754726, 42.052464, 43.368465, 43.638172, 44.347744, 41.434467, 42.98005 , 42.71213 , 41.16908 , 41.327957, 43.818047, 44.188583, 44.188583, 44.188583, 41.54683 , 42.295094, 43.123478, 40.722576, 41.647724, 39.127808, 44.490532, 41.72629 , 40.89917 , 43.668003, 43.131767, 40.719467, 40.460873, 40.265663, 42.53719 , 40.325356, 40.73144 , 40.881104, 41.127502, 41.36091 , 42.895992, 41.969822, 42.55673 , ... 43.2959 , 43.581608, 41.590363, 40.54462 , 42.267315, 44.399582, 42.269943, 41.92608 , 38.86729 , 39.67177 , 41.913822, 45.332787, 42.009197, 42.906433, 40.19041 , 43.281425, 41.01949 , 40.068905, 40.905018, 44.817722, 38.73531 , 41.310856, 41.356163, 40.89358 , 46.541164, 45.82335 , 45.599735, 44.991474, 43.62939 , 41.705223, 42.315895, 42.246754, 43.87252 , 44.677124, 44.609604, 42.747738, 42.137077, 44.463863, 42.54537 , 42.803032, 42.326 , 45.33852 , 41.51593 , 42.614666, 43.0676 , 44.109684, 41.421436, 40.979202, 42.491993, 42.94525 , 43.30183 , 43.816025, 42.536488, 43.90581 , 43.545254, 43.602867, 43.388668, 44.406506, 41.954277, 44.405186, 42.49066 , 43.460636, 43.192436, 43.96216 , 41.947598, 42.41268 , 39.4294 , 43.598473, 43.71561 , 43.253742, 41.775093, 42.723446, 41.981136, 45.313385, 45.856945, 44.364906, 41.091564, 44.10363 , 42.30719 , 41.855686, 44.404106, 44.26185 , 42.613228, 40.43179 , 41.974846, 42.83537 , 41.75253 , 42.284374, 40.539707, 40.479202, 42.738495, 43.42571 , 42.17383 , 42.2797 , 40.065796, 40.13599 , 41.060886, 40.919888, 41.848682, 42.076134, 42.355457, 43.75483 , 42.76723 , 42.85643 , 41.860886, 45.78176 , 41.93207 , 42.735874, 43.5926 , 41.961803, 43.31929 , 41.271896, 41.515068, 39.80078 , 40.330154, 43.271873, 43.327377, 43.023186]], dtype=float32) - s_2023_24_daily(chain, draw, days_2023_24)float3243.52 43.52 43.52 ... 43.02 43.02
array([[[43.519943, 43.519943, 43.519943, ..., 43.519943, 43.519943, 43.519943], [42.169876, 42.169876, 42.169876, ..., 42.169876, 42.169876, 42.169876], [43.91708 , 43.91708 , 43.91708 , ..., 43.91708 , 43.91708 , 43.91708 ], ..., [38.90656 , 38.90656 , 38.90656 , ..., 38.90656 , 38.90656 , 38.90656 ], [40.104874, 40.104874, 40.104874, ..., 40.104874, 40.104874, 40.104874], [39.671116, 39.671116, 39.671116, ..., 39.671116, 39.671116, 39.671116]], [[42.976456, 42.976456, 42.976456, ..., 42.976456, 42.976456, 42.976456], [44.704712, 44.704712, 44.704712, ..., 44.704712, 44.704712, 44.704712], [38.719666, 38.719666, 38.719666, ..., 38.719666, 38.719666, 38.719666], ... [42.338673, 42.338673, 42.338673, ..., 42.338673, 42.338673, 42.338673], [42.338673, 42.338673, 42.338673, ..., 42.338673, 42.338673, 42.338673], [42.338673, 42.338673, 42.338673, ..., 42.338673, 42.338673, 42.338673]], [[44.1839 , 44.1839 , 44.1839 , ..., 44.1839 , 44.1839 , 44.1839 ], [41.935013, 41.935013, 41.935013, ..., 41.935013, 41.935013, 41.935013], [42.06665 , 42.06665 , 42.06665 , ..., 42.06665 , 42.06665 , 42.06665 ], ..., [43.271873, 43.271873, 43.271873, ..., 43.271873, 43.271873, 43.271873], [43.327377, 43.327377, 43.327377, ..., 43.327377, 43.327377, 43.327377], [43.023186, 43.023186, 43.023186, ..., 43.023186, 43.023186, 43.023186]]], dtype=float32) - s_2024_25(chain, draw)float3242.03 43.13 40.95 ... 42.1 42.8
array([[42.031982, 43.125298, 40.95365 , 44.092587, 41.260883, 41.377316, 44.830666, 44.56965 , 39.094822, 43.8389 , 42.712997, 42.775387, 42.84995 , 42.063503, 41.33938 , 41.33938 , 42.596416, 42.787758, 41.930843, 42.123703, 42.423126, 42.7776 , 43.192867, 42.39083 , 42.39083 , 42.745277, 42.480755, 42.649803, 43.058132, 42.40034 , 44.43398 , 40.503105, 44.263718, 42.649124, 41.910633, 41.781837, 38.88407 , 39.922024, 44.973946, 40.953976, 41.250328, 42.690456, 42.96103 , 40.877766, 40.725613, 44.732193, 42.488186, 43.97589 , 40.440624, 43.64563 , 44.361332, 41.563217, 41.589043, 41.589043, 41.98387 , 41.78859 , 42.017853, 42.833954, 41.571526, 41.73371 , 41.93523 , 37.867043, 42.83972 , 42.254868, 42.010605, 42.47124 , 42.347458, 41.98587 , 41.016693, 41.00554 , 41.713814, 43.5798 , 40.628498, 42.139793, 40.95315 , 40.561398, 40.74911 , 40.52967 , 40.716026, 41.539703, 42.80841 , 41.061207, 41.33208 , 44.24679 , 43.282646, 42.275646, 42.62829 , 40.658134, 42.00791 , 40.49455 , 41.47332 , 42.83017 , 42.58057 , 40.818665, 41.49135 , 41.49135 , 41.49135 , 43.23696 , 41.978916, 41.548763, 40.211594, 42.480133, 38.287273, 46.96991 , 40.12567 , 39.44276 , 44.36313 , 43.24998 , 42.871998, 42.08045 , 41.89433 , 39.337234, 39.147877, 39.51666 , 41.86109 , 43.030056, 44.584843, 43.125732, 40.608643, 44.33636 , ... 43.184216, 41.29348 , 40.55084 , 43.892216, 44.197533, 41.822376, 39.705383, 40.32929 , 42.397152, 39.344704, 45.3622 , 41.14712 , 40.28846 , 43.716038, 39.664967, 43.007233, 40.815014, 40.94287 , 40.66574 , 43.112747, 37.017265, 40.430153, 39.921337, 39.900356, 43.01752 , 41.673565, 44.350388, 45.898388, 43.622486, 41.566868, 42.131313, 41.97607 , 41.48884 , 40.676464, 43.58028 , 42.284687, 40.007812, 43.727047, 40.561024, 42.745354, 41.144825, 43.33655 , 39.90218 , 43.772926, 41.151638, 41.672916, 42.24863 , 41.23832 , 43.097084, 43.41536 , 43.84041 , 43.487137, 43.439404, 41.838284, 44.293964, 42.75443 , 45.420216, 42.74929 , 45.007374, 40.537975, 44.618683, 41.197826, 43.033005, 44.223988, 44.518864, 41.33485 , 44.95168 , 38.067398, 38.076946, 39.035904, 39.149555, 40.247383, 41.8924 , 42.138817, 41.657177, 40.760563, 42.519787, 40.13743 , 40.25087 , 41.688313, 45.657627, 45.672672, 40.244358, 40.596146, 40.73542 , 39.09495 , 43.75001 , 43.347843, 41.35014 , 41.062096, 41.989857, 46.02764 , 40.3642 , 37.973278, 42.423073, 41.85019 , 41.014095, 42.03734 , 39.925945, 39.983627, 43.68553 , 42.125668, 42.724365, 41.552486, 41.075012, 39.864426, 41.685455, 41.247036, 41.151432, 42.701508, 44.37935 , 41.201538, 41.157883, 39.522297, 40.945213, 42.275433, 42.101418, 42.801643]], dtype=float32) - s_2024_25_daily(chain, draw, days_2024_25)float3242.03 42.03 42.03 ... 42.8 42.8
array([[[42.031982, 42.031982, 42.031982, ..., 42.031982, 42.031982, 42.031982], [43.125298, 43.125298, 43.125298, ..., 43.125298, 43.125298, 43.125298], [40.95365 , 40.95365 , 40.95365 , ..., 40.95365 , 40.95365 , 40.95365 ], ..., [44.499683, 44.499683, 44.499683, ..., 44.499683, 44.499683, 44.499683], [42.877563, 42.877563, 42.877563, ..., 42.877563, 42.877563, 42.877563], [42.361614, 42.361614, 42.361614, ..., 42.361614, 42.361614, 42.361614]], [[37.42025 , 37.42025 , 37.42025 , ..., 37.42025 , 37.42025 , 37.42025 ], [38.093327, 38.093327, 38.093327, ..., 38.093327, 38.093327, 38.093327], [44.8464 , 44.8464 , 44.8464 , ..., 44.8464 , 44.8464 , 44.8464 ], ... [40.29984 , 40.29984 , 40.29984 , ..., 40.29984 , 40.29984 , 40.29984 ], [40.29984 , 40.29984 , 40.29984 , ..., 40.29984 , 40.29984 , 40.29984 ], [40.29984 , 40.29984 , 40.29984 , ..., 40.29984 , 40.29984 , 40.29984 ]], [[45.33814 , 45.33814 , 45.33814 , ..., 45.33814 , 45.33814 , 45.33814 ], [39.69982 , 39.69982 , 39.69982 , ..., 39.69982 , 39.69982 , 39.69982 ], [45.347794, 45.347794, 45.347794, ..., 45.347794, 45.347794, 45.347794], ..., [42.275433, 42.275433, 42.275433, ..., 42.275433, 42.275433, 42.275433], [42.101418, 42.101418, 42.101418, ..., 42.101418, 42.101418, 42.101418], [42.801643, 42.801643, 42.801643, ..., 42.801643, 42.801643, 42.801643]]], dtype=float32)
- created_at :
- 2026-03-31T21:16:42.802581+00:00
- arviz_version :
- 0.23.4
- inference_library :
- numpyro
- inference_library_version :
- 0.20.1
<xarray.Dataset> Size: 5MB Dimensions: (chain: 4, draw: 250, season: 3, date_ranges_2022_23: 18, incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0: 0, date_ranges_2023_24: 18, incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty_dim_0: 0, date_ranges_2024_25: 17, incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0: 0, days_2022_23: 126, days_2023_24: 126, days_2024_25: 119, observation: 53) Coordinates: (12/13) * chain (chain) int64 32B 0 1 2 3 * draw (draw) int64 2kB 0 1 ... 248 249 * season (season) <U7 84B '2022/23' ..... * date_ranges_2022_23 (date_ranges_2022_23) <U21 2kB ... * incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0 (incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0) int64 0B ... * date_ranges_2023_24 (date_ranges_2023_24) <U21 2kB ... ... ... * date_ranges_2024_25 (date_ranges_2024_25) <U21 1kB ... * incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0 (incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0) int64 0B ... * days_2022_23 (days_2022_23) <U10 5kB '2022... * days_2023_24 (days_2023_24) <U10 5kB '2023... * days_2024_25 (days_2024_25) <U10 5kB '2024... * observation (observation) <U29 6kB '2022/... Data variables: (12/29) covariate_values_m_season (chain, draw, season) float32 12kB ... covariate_values_r_season (chain, draw, season) float32 12kB ... covariate_values_s_season (chain, draw, season) float32 12kB ... incidence_2022_23 (chain, draw, date_ranges_2022_23) float32 72kB ... incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty (chain, draw, incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0) float32 0B ... incidence_2023_24 (chain, draw, date_ranges_2023_24) float32 72kB ... ... ... s_2022_23 (chain, draw) float32 4kB 40.... s_2022_23_daily (chain, draw, days_2022_23) float32 504kB ... s_2023_24 (chain, draw) float32 4kB 43.... s_2023_24_daily (chain, draw, days_2023_24) float32 504kB ... s_2024_25 (chain, draw) float32 4kB 42.... s_2024_25_daily (chain, draw, days_2024_25) float32 476kB ... Attributes: created_at: 2026-03-31T21:16:42.802581+00:00 arviz_version: 0.23.4 inference_library: numpyro inference_library_version: 0.20.1xarray.Dataset -
- chain: 4
- draw: 250
- observation: 53
- chain(chain)int640 1 2 3
array([0, 1, 2, 3])
- draw(draw)int640 1 2 3 4 5 ... 245 246 247 248 249
array([ 0, 1, 2, ..., 247, 248, 249])
- observation(chain, draw, observation)float325.125 5.034 5.378 ... 5.128 2.806
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- arviz_version :
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- inference_library :
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<xarray.Dataset> Size: 212B Dimensions: ( incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0: 0, incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty_dim_0: 0, incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0: 0, observation: 53) Coordinates: * incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0 (incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0) int64 0B ... * incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty_dim_0 (incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty_dim_0) int64 0B ... * incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0 (incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0) int64 0B ... * observation (observation) float32 212B 0.... Data variables: incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty (incidence_2022_23_prevalence_penalty_dim_0) float32 0B ... incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty (incidence_2023_24_prevalence_penalty_dim_0) float32 0B ... incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty (incidence_2024_25_prevalence_penalty_dim_0) float32 0B ... Attributes: created_at: 2026-03-31T21:16:42.806903+00:00 arviz_version: 0.23.4 inference_library: numpyro inference_library_version: 0.20.1xarray.Dataset
In [18]:
Copied!
vaxflux_idata.posterior_observations
vaxflux_idata.posterior_observations
Out[18]:
| chain | draw | season | season_start_date | season_end_date | start_date | end_date | report_date | type | value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 2022/23 | 2022-10-03 | 2023-02-05 | 2022-11-14 | 2022-11-20 | 2022-11-20 | incidence | 0.025239 |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 2022/23 | 2022-10-03 | 2023-02-05 | 2022-10-31 | 2022-11-06 | 2022-11-06 | incidence | 0.024691 |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 2022/23 | 2022-10-03 | 2023-02-05 | 2022-12-19 | 2022-12-25 | 2022-12-25 | incidence | 0.014870 |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 2022/23 | 2022-10-03 | 2023-02-05 | 2023-01-16 | 2023-01-22 | 2023-01-22 | incidence | 0.006492 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 2022/23 | 2022-10-03 | 2023-02-05 | 2023-01-02 | 2023-01-08 | 2023-01-08 | incidence | 0.010117 |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| 52995 | 3 | 249 | 2024/25 | 2024-10-07 | 2025-02-02 | 2024-12-23 | 2024-12-29 | 2024-12-29 | incidence | 0.016114 |
| 52996 | 3 | 249 | 2024/25 | 2024-10-07 | 2025-02-02 | 2024-11-04 | 2024-11-10 | 2024-11-10 | incidence | 0.025517 |
| 52997 | 3 | 249 | 2024/25 | 2024-10-07 | 2025-02-02 | 2024-12-16 | 2024-12-22 | 2024-12-22 | incidence | 0.019033 |
| 52998 | 3 | 249 | 2024/25 | 2024-10-07 | 2025-02-02 | 2024-10-14 | 2024-10-20 | 2024-10-20 | incidence | 0.017945 |
| 52999 | 3 | 249 | 2024/25 | 2024-10-07 | 2025-02-02 | 2024-10-28 | 2024-11-03 | 2024-11-03 | incidence | 0.023459 |
53000 rows × 10 columns
In [19]:
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az.plot_trace(
vaxflux_idata,
var_names=[
"m_season",
"m_season_mu",
"m_season_sigma",
"r_season",
"r_season_mu",
"r_season_sigma",
"s_season",
"s_season_mu",
"s_season_sigma",
"observation_sigma",
],
)
plt.show()
az.plot_trace(
vaxflux_idata,
var_names=[
"m_season",
"m_season_mu",
"m_season_sigma",
"r_season",
"r_season_mu",
"r_season_sigma",
"s_season",
"s_season_mu",
"s_season_sigma",
"observation_sigma",
],
)
plt.show()
In [20]:
Copied!
vaxflux_idata.plot_posterior_predictive()
plt.show()
vaxflux_idata.plot_posterior_predictive()
plt.show()
In [21]:
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vaxflux_idata.plot_posterior_predictive(predictive="observation")
plt.show()
vaxflux_idata.plot_posterior_predictive(predictive="observation")
plt.show()
In [22]:
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vaxflux_idata.posterior_prevalence_scenarios(
{"low": (0.025, 0.25), "typical": (0.25, 0.75), "high": (0.75, 0.975)}
)
vaxflux_idata.posterior_prevalence_scenarios(
{"low": (0.025, 0.25), "typical": (0.25, 0.75), "high": (0.75, 0.975)}
)
Out[22]:
| season | scenario | low_quantile | high_quantile | low_prevalence | high_prevalence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2022/23 | low | 0.025 | 0.250 | 0.283446 | 0.295418 |
| 1 | 2023/24 | low | 0.025 | 0.250 | 0.273804 | 0.285406 |
| 2 | 2024/25 | low | 0.025 | 0.250 | 0.280309 | 0.289147 |
| 3 | 2022/23 | typical | 0.250 | 0.750 | 0.295418 | 0.306383 |
| 4 | 2023/24 | typical | 0.250 | 0.750 | 0.285406 | 0.299379 |
| 5 | 2024/25 | typical | 0.250 | 0.750 | 0.289147 | 0.301364 |
| 6 | 2022/23 | high | 0.750 | 0.975 | 0.306383 | 0.316303 |
| 7 | 2023/24 | high | 0.750 | 0.975 | 0.299379 | 0.308947 |
| 8 | 2024/25 | high | 0.750 | 0.975 | 0.301364 | 0.313389 |
In [ ]:
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