{
  "experiment": "B0.1",
  "predecessor": {
    "label": "B0.0",
    "stored_id": "b0-us-cross-4"
  },
  "dataset": "data/processed/build_b_finalized.npz",
  "frozen": "data/evaluation/b0_hub_comparison_q23",
  "target_weights": [
    1,
    1,
    1,
    0.5,
    0.5,
    0.5
  ],
  "us_weight": 0.2,
  "season_aggregation": "equal seasons, targets averaged within season",
  "training_normalization": "native channel/location Q95 fitted only in training partition",
  "selection": "location-relative ensemble WIS, states/DC 80% equally and US 20%",
  "optimizer": "Adam",
  "batch_size": 8,
  "training_members": 128,
  "validation_members": 256,
  "evaluation_members": 2048,
  "seeds": [
    42,
    43,
    44
  ],
  "seasons": [
    "2023-2024",
    "2024-2025",
    "2025-2026"
  ],
  "status": "Historical completed suite; active grid pruned 2026-09-16 to remove stochastic-trend decoder and joint_trend recipe.",
  "focus": "capabilities: cross-location/cross-target information exchange, parameter sharing, temporal dynamics and uncertainty",
  "defaults": {
    "output": "samples",
    "encoder": "mlp",
    "decoder": "legacy",
    "head_sharing": "shared",
    "exchange": "none",
    "noise": "global",
    "count_transform": "fourth_root",
    "ed_transform": "logit",
    "lookback": 12,
    "width": 64,
    "latent": 16,
    "geography": true,
    "dynamics": true,
    "annual_calendar": true,
    "location_embedding": 0,
    "us_heads": "shared",
    "shared_factor": false,
    "epochs": 300,
    "patience": 30,
    "lr": 0.001,
    "weight_decay": 0.0,
    "fit_partition": "all"
  },
  "epoch_interpretation": "100 and 300 are maximum epoch budgets, with patience 30; default cap 300. No patience-zero runs.",
  "blocks": {
    "A_reference_crosses": {
      "references": {
        "local_mlp": {},
        "spatial_conv": {
          "encoder": "conv",
          "exchange": "shared_spatial"
        },
        "pathogen_multiscale": {
          "encoder": "multiscale_conv",
          "head_sharing": "pathogen",
          "exchange": "pathogen_spatial",
          "noise": "global_local"
        },
        "target_multiscale": {
          "encoder": "multiscale_conv",
          "head_sharing": "target",
          "exchange": "target_spatial",
          "noise": "global_local"
        },
        "joint_multiscale": {
          "encoder": "multiscale_conv",
          "head_sharing": "target",
          "exchange": "joint_location_target",
          "noise": "global_local"
        }
      },
      "axes": {
        "encoder": [
          "mlp",
          "conv",
          "multiscale_conv"
        ],
        "decoder": [
          "legacy"
        ],
        "head_sharing": [
          "shared",
          "pathogen",
          "target"
        ],
        "exchange": [
          "none",
          "shared_spatial",
          "pathogen_spatial",
          "target_spatial",
          "joint_location_target"
        ],
        "noise": [
          "global",
          "global_local"
        ],
        "count_transform": [
          "sqrt",
          "fourth_root",
          "log1p"
        ],
        "ed_transform": [
          "linear",
          "logit",
          "fourth_root"
        ],
        "lookback": [
          8,
          12,
          26
        ],
        "width": [
          64,
          128
        ],
        "dynamics": [
          false,
          true
        ],
        "annual_calendar": [
          false,
          true
        ],
        "location_embedding": [
          0,
          8
        ],
        "us_heads": [
          "shared",
          "separate"
        ],
        "shared_factor": [
          false,
          true
        ],
        "epochs": [
          100,
          300
        ]
      },
      "method": "Each reference plus one-factor changes; globally deduplicate identical configurations."
    },
    "B_attention_sharing_panels": {
      "reference_names": [
        "local_mlp"
      ],
      "axes": {
        "exchange": [
          "none",
          "shared_spatial",
          "pathogen_spatial",
          "target_spatial",
          "joint_location_target"
        ],
        "head_sharing": [
          "shared",
          "pathogen",
          "target"
        ]
      }
    },
    "C_transform_panels": {
      "reference_names": [
        "local_mlp"
      ],
      "axes": {
        "count_transform": [
          "sqrt",
          "fourth_root",
          "log1p"
        ],
        "ed_transform": [
          "linear",
          "logit",
          "fourth_root"
        ]
      }
    },
    "D_conv_controls": {
      "configurations": [
        {
          "output": "samples",
          "encoder": "conv",
          "decoder": "legacy",
          "head_sharing": "shared",
          "exchange": "shared_spatial",
          "noise": "global_local",
          "count_transform": "fourth_root",
          "ed_transform": "logit",
          "lookback": 12,
          "width": 64,
          "latent": 32,
          "geography": true,
          "dynamics": true,
          "annual_calendar": true,
          "location_embedding": 0,
          "us_heads": "separate",
          "shared_factor": false,
          "epochs": 100,
          "patience": 30,
          "lr": 0.001,
          "weight_decay": 0.0,
          "fit_partition": "all"
        },
        {
          "output": "samples",
          "encoder": "conv",
          "decoder": "legacy",
          "head_sharing": "shared",
          "exchange": "shared_spatial",
          "noise": "global_local",
          "count_transform": "fourth_root",
          "ed_transform": "logit",
          "lookback": 12,
          "width": 64,
          "latent": 32,
          "geography": true,
          "dynamics": true,
          "annual_calendar": true,
          "location_embedding": 0,
          "us_heads": "separate",
          "shared_factor": false,
          "epochs": 300,
          "patience": 30,
          "lr": 0.001,
          "weight_decay": 0.0,
          "fit_partition": "all"
        },
        {
          "output": "samples",
          "encoder": "conv",
          "decoder": "residual2",
          "head_sharing": "shared",
          "exchange": "shared_spatial",
          "noise": "global_local",
          "count_transform": "fourth_root",
          "ed_transform": "logit",
          "lookback": 12,
          "width": 64,
          "latent": 32,
          "geography": true,
          "dynamics": true,
          "annual_calendar": true,
          "location_embedding": 0,
          "us_heads": "separate",
          "shared_factor": false,
          "epochs": 100,
          "patience": 30,
          "lr": 0.001,
          "weight_decay": 0.0,
          "fit_partition": "all"
        },
        {
          "output": "samples",
          "encoder": "conv",
          "decoder": "residual2",
          "head_sharing": "shared",
          "exchange": "shared_spatial",
          "noise": "global_local",
          "count_transform": "fourth_root",
          "ed_transform": "logit",
          "lookback": 12,
          "width": 64,
          "latent": 32,
          "geography": true,
          "dynamics": true,
          "annual_calendar": true,
          "location_embedding": 0,
          "us_heads": "separate",
          "shared_factor": false,
          "epochs": 300,
          "patience": 30,
          "lr": 0.001,
          "weight_decay": 0.0,
          "fit_partition": "all"
        }
      ]
    },
    "E_independent_sharing_controls": {
      "axes": {
        "encoder": [
          "mlp",
          "conv",
          "multiscale_conv"
        ],
        "fit_partition": [
          "all",
          "pathogen",
          "target"
        ],
        "epochs": [
          100,
          300
        ]
      },
      "inputs": "All six observed channels in every component",
      "supervision_groups": {
        "all": [
          [
            0,
            1,
            2,
            3,
            4,
            5
          ]
        ],
        "pathogen": [
          [
            0,
            3
          ],
          [
            1,
            4
          ],
          [
            2,
            5
          ]
        ],
        "target": [
          [
            0
          ],
          [
            1
          ],
          [
            2
          ],
          [
            3
          ],
          [
            4
          ],
          [
            5
          ]
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "candidate_entries_by_block": {
    "A_reference_crosses": 115,
    "B_attention_sharing_panels": 15,
    "C_transform_panels": 9,
    "E_independent_sharing_controls": 18,
    "D_conv_controls": 4
  },
  "additional_unique_configurations_by_block": {
    "A_reference_crosses": 105,
    "B_attention_sharing_panels": 8,
    "C_transform_panels": 4,
    "D_conv_controls": 4,
    "E_independent_sharing_controls": 14
  },
  "unique_configurations": 135,
  "cv_runs": 405,
  "outer_evaluation_folds": 1215,
  "outer_component_model_fits": 1593,
  "inner_plus_refit_training_calls": 3186,
  "assumptions": [
    "Reference architectures are prespecified contrasts, not winners selected on scored seasons.",
    "The epoch request is interpreted as 100/300 caps with patience 30, consistent with keeping early stopping; actual refit epochs can be lower.",
    "The default is cap 300; cap 100 is a one-factor alternative around every reference, and both caps are used for old conv and independent sharing controls.",
    "Attention-by-sharing and transform-pair panels use the 300-epoch default; this is not an exhaustive interaction experiment.",
    "All other axes are changed one at a time around five retained references; identical recipes are trained only once.",
    "All three seeds (42, 43, 44) and three outer folds remain in the amended plan; removing 45 and 46 is uniform across configurations, not performance-based pruning.",
    "No direct quantile model, raw/rate-only input transform, new surveillance data, augmentation, or vintage reconstruction.",
    "All models generate samples; exported quantiles for WIS are retained.",
    "Calendar-off removes annual sine/cosine and Christmas timing; dynamics-off removes the extra local-dynamics block.",
    "Independent pathogen and target configurations are complete forecast bundles containing three or six component models, respectively; all retain six observed inputs.",
    "The suite maps conceptual architecture names to executable TrainingScenario flags; jobs.csv and design.json retain exact strings and all contrast memberships.",
    "Calibration and sample-based mixtures remain postprocessing comparisons with training-side parameter selection; their evaluations are not model-fit counts.",
    "Independent component i uses seed + 10000*i, its own stopping epoch and fresh sampling draws; bundle member indices imply independence across components.",
    "Calendar-on includes annual sine/cosine and Christmas timing even when recent dynamics are disabled.",
    "Shared spatial exchange retains the existing context attention topology; pathogen/target/joint exchange adds scope-restricted history tokens with group identity and optional geography/ID features.",
    "Source snapshots use the current working tree including uncommitted changes; new checkpoint modules replace the old module layout.",
    "Eight lanes and twelve allocated CPU cores per GPU on all six patron GPUs; one CPU thread per fit. L40 throughput was measured; eight lanes on H100 is the user-selected setting, not an H100 benchmark result.",
    "2026-09-16: Removed the failed stochastic-trend decoder and joint_trend reference; historical 172-configuration results remain in the results report."
  ]
}