{
  "status": "completed development comparison; prospective validation still needed",
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    "criterion": "Fixed shrinkage tradeoff; not the point-score winner",
    "uncertainty_strength": 0.5,
    "history_members": 2048
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  "best_point": {
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    "criterion": "2025-2026 complete history: 0.8 states + 0.2 US trajectory",
    "score": 0.034383982712307644,
    "strength": 1.0
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  "c1_only": {
    "point_model": "adaptive_chain",
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  "confirmed_forecast_experiment": "context-replay-confirm-20261002",
  "dataset_sha256": "54d0e3306a76ded067c6d1b65493d50b1c19bde2e66ab80a438674ec37e6c80f",
  "primary_scores": {
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    "balanced_trajectory_improvement_pct": 1.4406,
    "confirmed_complete_history_wis_change_pct": -0.412559,
    "confirmed_uninterrupted_wis_change_pct": -0.272265
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  "uncertainty_calibrated": false
}