{ "source": "data/processed/panel-b2-deadline.npz", "source_sha256": "27c36c76c96cbd1a6705fe9dd9d848a4e734861d61fd300495868bbe78fd6d9a", "builder_sha256": "7b39218c6ef23e8707a8e4e9fdc1ddab9e101ff54bd22584e9d4a0249941507d", "authorized_assumption": "Backcast the expected 2025-26 source reporting regime; when archive evidence is absent, lean toward availability using finalized historical values after source-specific delay.", "covariate_lags_days": { "nwss_flu_wval_like": 13, "nwss_covid_wval_like": 13, "nwss_rsv_wval_like": 9, "nwss_flu_pct_rank": 13, "nwss_covid_pct_rank": 13, "nwss_rsv_pct_rank": 9, "kinsa_ili": 1, "ilinet_ili": 6, "inpatient_flu": 3, "outpatient_covid": 1, "outpatient_flu": 0, "inpatient_covid": 3, "clinical_lab_flu_pct_positive": 6, "flusurv_flu_rate": 6 }, "target_lag_days": 4, "sources": [ { "name": "nhsn_flu_admissions", "lag_days": 4, "proxy_cells": 22706, "actual_cells": 634688, "protected_null_cells": 3456, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 53, 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"latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 53, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 0.0, "native_first_release": null }, { "name": "nssp_rsv_proportion", "lag_days": 4, "proxy_cells": 37580, "actual_cells": 608861, "protected_null_cells": 4507, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 53, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 0.0, "native_first_release": null }, { "name": "inpatient_flu", "lag_days": 3, "proxy_cells": 2382, "actual_cells": 579886, "protected_null_cells": 62282, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 53, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 0.0, "native_first_release": { "first_release": "2020-05-29T23:59:59.999999999+00:00", "recent_first_releases": 2558, "operational_first_releases": 2540, "first_release_median_days": 3.0, "first_release_p10_days": 2.0, "first_release_p90_days": 12.099999999999909, "excluded_backfill_over60days": 18 } }, { "name": "inpatient_covid", "lag_days": 3, "proxy_cells": 2323, "actual_cells": 555260, "protected_null_cells": 86908, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 53, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 0.0, "native_first_release": { "first_release": "2020-05-29T23:59:59.999999999+00:00", "recent_first_releases": 2555, "operational_first_releases": 2537, "first_release_median_days": 3.0, "first_release_p10_days": 2.0, "first_release_p90_days": 13.0, "excluded_backfill_over60days": 18 } }, { "name": "outpatient_flu", "lag_days": 0, "proxy_cells": 236, "actual_cells": 478926, "protected_null_cells": 181840, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 53, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 0.0, "native_first_release": { "first_release": "2020-05-29T23:59:59.999999999+00:00", "recent_first_releases": 2686, "operational_first_releases": 2685, "first_release_median_days": 0.0, "first_release_p10_days": 0.0, "first_release_p90_days": 4.0, "excluded_backfill_over60days": 1 } }, { "name": "outpatient_covid", "lag_days": 1, "proxy_cells": 185, "actual_cells": 473036, "protected_null_cells": 187730, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 53, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 0.0, "native_first_release": { "first_release": "2020-05-29T23:59:59.999999999+00:00", "recent_first_releases": 2685, "operational_first_releases": 2684, "first_release_median_days": 1.0, "first_release_p10_days": 0.0, "first_release_p90_days": 4.0, "excluded_backfill_over60days": 1 } }, { "name": "nwss_flu_wval_like", "lag_days": 13, "proxy_cells": 323030, "actual_cells": 179746, "protected_null_cells": 5995, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 24, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 0.0, "native_first_release": { "first_release": "2026-02-25T23:59:59.999999999+00:00", "recent_first_releases": 7625, "operational_first_releases": 1135, "first_release_median_days": 13.0, "first_release_p10_days": 6.0, "first_release_p90_days": 46.0, "excluded_backfill_over60days": 6181 } }, { "name": "nwss_covid_wval_like", "lag_days": 13, "proxy_cells": 370762, "actual_cells": 199567, "protected_null_cells": 1908, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 24, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 0.0, "native_first_release": { "first_release": "2026-02-25T23:59:59.999999999+00:00", "recent_first_releases": 11698, "operational_first_releases": 1190, "first_release_median_days": 13.0, "first_release_p10_days": 6.0, "first_release_p90_days": 46.0, "excluded_backfill_over60days": 10198 } }, { "name": "nwss_rsv_wval_like", "lag_days": 9, "proxy_cells": 309926, "actual_cells": 172935, "protected_null_cells": 5215, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 24, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 0.0, "native_first_release": { "first_release": "2026-02-25T23:59:59.999999999+00:00", "recent_first_releases": 7157, "operational_first_releases": 982, "first_release_median_days": 9.0, "first_release_p10_days": 6.0, "first_release_p90_days": 47.799999999999955, "excluded_backfill_over60days": 5764 } }, { "name": "nwss_flu_pct_rank", "lag_days": 13, "proxy_cells": 323030, "actual_cells": 179746, "protected_null_cells": 5995, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 24, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 0.0, "native_first_release": { "first_release": "2026-02-25T23:59:59.999999999+00:00", "recent_first_releases": 7625, "operational_first_releases": 1135, "first_release_median_days": 13.0, "first_release_p10_days": 6.0, "first_release_p90_days": 46.0, "excluded_backfill_over60days": 6181 } }, { "name": "nwss_covid_pct_rank", "lag_days": 13, "proxy_cells": 370762, "actual_cells": 199567, "protected_null_cells": 1908, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 24, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 0.0, "native_first_release": { "first_release": "2026-02-25T23:59:59.999999999+00:00", "recent_first_releases": 11698, "operational_first_releases": 1190, "first_release_median_days": 13.0, "first_release_p10_days": 6.0, "first_release_p90_days": 46.0, "excluded_backfill_over60days": 10198 } }, { "name": "nwss_rsv_pct_rank", "lag_days": 9, "proxy_cells": 309926, "actual_cells": 172935, "protected_null_cells": 5215, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 24, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 0.0, "native_first_release": { "first_release": "2026-02-25T23:59:59.999999999+00:00", "recent_first_releases": 7157, "operational_first_releases": 982, "first_release_median_days": 9.0, "first_release_p10_days": 6.0, "first_release_p90_days": 47.799999999999955, "excluded_backfill_over60days": 5764 } }, { "name": "ilinet_ili", "lag_days": 6, "proxy_cells": 2618, "actual_cells": 640894, "protected_null_cells": 0, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 53, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 7.0, "native_first_release": { "first_release": "2003-11-28T23:59:59.999999999+00:00", "recent_first_releases": 2412, "operational_first_releases": 2255, "first_release_median_days": 6.0, "first_release_p10_days": 6.0, "first_release_p90_days": 20.0, "excluded_backfill_over60days": 105 } }, { "name": "clinical_lab_flu_pct_positive", "lag_days": 6, "proxy_cells": 2954, "actual_cells": 520597, "protected_null_cells": 0, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 53, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 7.0, "native_first_release": { "first_release": "2018-10-05T23:59:59.999999999+00:00", "recent_first_releases": 1926, "operational_first_releases": 1805, "first_release_median_days": 6.0, "first_release_p10_days": 6.0, "first_release_p90_days": 27.0, "excluded_backfill_over60days": 83 } }, { "name": "flusurv_flu_rate", "lag_days": 6, "proxy_cells": 78175, "actual_cells": 66952, "protected_null_cells": 0, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 40, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 7.0, "native_first_release": { "first_release": "2012-11-02T23:59:59.999999999+00:00", "recent_first_releases": 2601, "operational_first_releases": 442, "first_release_median_days": 6.0, "first_release_p10_days": 6.0, "first_release_p90_days": 38.0, "excluded_backfill_over60days": 2159 } }, { "name": "kinsa_ili", "lag_days": 1, "proxy_cells": 9190, "actual_cells": 3530, "protected_null_cells": 0, "latest_observation_origins_2025_2026": 18, "latest_observation_median_lag_from_context_days": 0.0, "native_first_release": { "first_release": "2026-04-06T23:59:59.999999999+00:00", "recent_first_releases": 394, "operational_first_releases": 25, "first_release_median_days": 3.0, "first_release_p10_days": 1.0, "first_release_p90_days": 41.20000000000001, "excluded_backfill_over60days": 369 } } ], "native_delay_estimator": "Median first publication delay per event-week/location among 2025-26 first releases with delay 0-60 days; floor fractional median days. Reports >60 days are treated as archive backfills and excluded. Explicit overrides: daily Kinsa1day after May2026 stabilization; ILINet and clinical lab6days from CDC weekly release schedule.", "proxy_value_policy": "Actual deadline vintage if present. Otherwise frozen finalized value only where no report/null exists, truth is finite, assumed source release precedes actual deadline, and event week does not exceed original context end. Missouri ED missing cells are never proxied.", "timestamp_policy": "Assumed publication at end of UTC release day; actual holiday-aware Eastern cutoffs retained. This is conservative within the assumed release day.", "interpretation": "Operational availability hypothesis, not reconstructed historical real-time data. Proxy values include later revisions; NWSS proxies additionally use retrospective finalized index baselines. Results measure model/covariate value under this reporting hypothesis and cannot establish historical deployable performance.", "unchanged": "All finalized training/label truth arrays; all actually observed deadline input values; Wednesday origin identities and context boundaries.", "output": "data/processed/panel-b2-operational.npz", "output_sha256": "84ca1a89f3da43cbb41a794e06b09c039aaf26d4f4c3443a42dbd1f4be8ebd81" }