Where does transmission occur at the World Cup?
When we consider how transmission might be elevated at World Cup related activities, we are not
just talking about transmission that occurs at stadiums…
Where does transmission occur at the World Cup?
…but also transmission that occurs at related
activities, including watch parties at homes, restaurants, bars, hotels where visitors are staying, and transportation
to and from venues.
What diseases have elevated transmission?
We reviewed the evidence for potential elevated World Cup for each pathogen or group of pathogens.
What diseases have elevated transmission?
Not when humans are a dead end host.
First we can eliminate all of those diseases for which humans are dead end hosts.
What diseases have elevated transmission?
Not health care associated infections.
Infectious diseases that are mostly transmitted in health care settings are not expected to
have elevated transmission during World Cup related events.
What diseases have elevated transmission?
Not vector borne pathogens.
Vector borne pathogens are considered unlikely to see substantial increases in transmission around World Cup related events, both due to lack of evidence and no clear biological mechanism for an increase (e.g., no increased vector density).
What diseases have elevated transmission?
Not sexually transmitted infections.
Next let’s consider sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Despite news stories that have suggested elevated transmission at sporting events, detailed analyses show no evidence of elevated transmission.
The same holds for diseases predominantly spread by injection drug use.
What diseases have elevated transmission?
Not most enteric pathogens.
While enteric pathogens, such as cryptosporidium, are often associated with mass gathering events, this is usually confined to events where water and sanitation facilities are inadequate (e.g., camps, music festivals). World Cup games in the United States are taking place at established sports stadiums with maintained and expected sanitation systems that experience similarly sized crowds on a regular basis. Hence, this type of risk is minimally increased. Bars, restaurants, homes and public transportation are likewise unlikely to have highly elevated risk so long as water and sanitation facilities stay the same. (Note: we are here talking about excess transmissibility due to the nature of venues, not excess transmissions occurring due to increase presence of the pathogen.)
The exception is norovirus, which is known to cause explosive outbreaks in dense settings, and there is more evidence of outbreaks with sporting events.
What diseases have elevated transmission?
Not most bacterial diseases.
For most bacterial pathogens, even respiratory pathogens, there is not much support for elevated transmission
around sporting events and similar activities. The exception is tuberculosis, for which there is evidence
of increased transmission when people are singing. Given the similarities between singing and shouting, and
frequent shouting watching games, elevated transmission seems an appropriate pessimistic assumption.
What diseases have elevated transmission?
Not diseases transmitted by direct contact.
Some diseases are predominantly transmitted by touch, bodily fluids, or otherwise by close contact. These diseases also have not shown evidence of elevated transmission around sporting events or similar gatherings, so these too are excluded.
What diseases have elevated transmission?
Yes to the respiratory viruses…
Based on studies of COVID-19 transmission around the 2022 FIFA World Cup and other threads of evidence around
respiratory virus transmission, we judge that there is good evidence to support elevated transmission of respiratory viruses during World Cup related activities.
What diseases have elevated transmission?
…but not a few special cases.
Whether transmission is elevated or not is irrelevant for smallpox as it has been eradicated. Nipah and Andes lineage hantavirus both have been transmitted through the air, but this remains rare and appears to be inefficient, and these are not considered likely to have elevated transmission.
How much does transmission increase at World Cup related activities?
Based on a review of the literature, the best evidence for how much the world cup will increase
the transmission risk during the games comes from analysis of COVID-19 transmission during the
2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar.
How much does transmission increase at World Cup related activities?
Based on a review of the literature, the best evidence for how much the world cup will increase
the transmission risk during the games comes from analysis of COVID-19 transmission during the
2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar.
How much does transmission increase at World Cup related activities?
In order to determine the increase in transmission due to the World Cup we looked at the change in Rt during the 2022 World Cup, adjusting for trend. Comparing the average Rt over the period of the tournament with Rt in the months immediately before and after yielded a ratio of 1.2, which was used as a multiplier for all pathogens presumed to have increased transmission during the World Cup.
WC 2026 Threat Assessment